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Indian benchmark index Nifty 50 is likely to witness a near-term rebound, according to Axis Securities. For the second consecutive month, the index tested its prior supply zone of 25,600-25,700 levels; however, profit booking at elevated levels dragged it lower, resulting in a 2.9% loss.
Technical View: Nifty 50 likely to move towards 25,300-25,500 in the near term
Indian benchmark index Nifty 50 is likely to witness a near-term rebound, according to Axis Securities. For the second consecutive month, the index tested its prior supply zone of 25,600-25,700 levels; however, profit booking at elevated levels dragged it lower, resulting in a 2.9% loss.
The index has lost half a percent in August so far, following a 3 percent decline in July. Before that, it was in the green for 4 straight months, up 3 percent in June, 1.7 percent in May, 3.5 percent in April, and 6.3 percent in March.
Axis Securities highlighted that the index continues to move higher on a broader timeframe, forming a consistent series of higher tops and higher bottoms on the long-term chart. This suggests that minor corrections toward identified support zones offer investors a strategic opportunity for accumulation.
Axis Securities advised investors that they should adopt a buy-on-dips approach, as short-term corrections provide attractive entry points. The short- to medium-term trend appears neutral to corrective, but Nifty's near-term upside could extend toward 25,300–25,500. At the same time, any violation of the 24,400 support level may lead to profit booking, potentially dragging the index down to 24,000–23,800, it predicted.
Axis Securities noted that the monthly price action formed a small bearish candle confined within the high-low range of the previous month, indicating a temporary lack of strong upward momentum. The index remains above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 24,042, reconfirming the primary uptrend.
While the weekly and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) are in negative territory, signaling short-term loss of strength, Axis Securities emphasized that the long-term trend remains positive. Since June 2022, Nifty has consistently respected its upward-sloping channel support, underscoring the resilience of the current uptrend.
Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Axis Securities explained that the 200-day SMA around 24,000 is a critical support level and a strategic accumulation zone. Currently, the index is trading near a multi-month support zone between 24,500 and 24,300, which serves as a crucial line of defense.A sustained breach below this zone could accelerate corrective momentum, potentially pushing Nifty toward the 24,000 psychological level. Despite this consolidation, the RSI holding above 50 indicates underlying strength, supporting positive momentum. Axis Securities recommends a selective, stock- and sector-specific strategy to capitalize on market opportunities.
On the upside, Axis Securities stated that a sustained breakout above 25,000 could trigger a rally, with potential targets in the 25,300–25,500 range. Conversely, a decisive breach of the support zone at 24,400–24,300 may prompt profit booking, possibly driving the index toward 24,000–23,800.
Axis Securities also observed that Nifty is in a corrective mode in the short term, reflected in a series of lower tops and bottoms, and continues to face resistance from its prior supply zone of 25,400–25,600. Nevertheless, the broader outlook remains bullish, with potential for sector rotation within the ongoing bull market.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Source: LiveMint
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