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Iran war impact to show on India GDP, inflation in risk to ‘Goldilocks’ economy
Iran war impact to show on India GDP, inflation in risk to ‘Goldilocks’ economy
Iran war impact to show on India GDP, inflation in risk to ‘Goldilocks’ economy
India has projected GDP growth rate of 7.2% in FY27 with inflation rate below RBI's target of 4%, but the Iran war now threatens to upend that fiscal math.
Updated on: Mar 18, 2026 10:35 AM IST Bloomberg Share via Copy link Surging crude oil prices and acute LPG shortage are rippling through the Indian economy as the Iran war drags on, disrupting industries and prompting analysts to cut growth forecasts while warning of rising inflation. Signage during India Energy Week in Goa in January 2026. India imports about 90% of its crude oil and nearly half of its LPG. (Bloomberg) India is among the economies most exposed to the West Asia crisis as it imports about 90% of its crude oil and nearly half of its liquefied petroleum gas. About half of its crude and over three-fourths of LPG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively shut by Iran, pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel. The disruption has triggered an LPG shortage across households, hotels and restaurants, while industries that rely on gas are shutting down operations. The shortages are raising concerns about a sharp slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy just as it was recovering from the pandemic. About half of India's crude oil and over three-fourths of LPG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively shut due to the Iran war. (HT) Economists at banks including Goldman Sachs Group, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and IndusInd Bank Ltd. expect slower GDP growth due to reliance on imported oil. Goldman Sachs last week cut its 2026 growth forecast by half a percentage point to 6.5% while ANZ sees expansion slowing to 6.5%-6.8%, in the fiscal year starting April from about 7%. IndusInd Bank’s Gaurav Kapur sees a 30-basis-point hit with growth at around 6.5% and warns weaker consumption could weigh on the recovery. “The overall impact on growth will be more dampening than inflation,” Kapur said. “The government has enough fiscal space to absorb the oil price hit through excise duty cuts, but the hit on the industrial sector will impact growth.” The conflict thousands of miles away is already affecting daily life in India.LPG shortage in India
Satyabhan Singh, 35, a food delivery driver, says his daily income has fallen by more than half to about ₹800 as fuel costs rise. He now spends ₹300-400 a day on petrol, meaning any increase in pump prices could wipe out what little he earns. “The government should make some arrangements for us,” Singh said. “When there is no gas, they should ensure we can still earn enough to survive.” Gig work such as food delivery has become one of India’s fastest-growing sources of employment, with the workforce rising to about 12 million by March 2025 from 7.7 million in March 2021, a 55% increase, according to the government’s Economic Survey. Gas rationing is disrupting key industries, from fertiliser and aluminium to helium used in semiconductor manufacturing, raising the risk of a prolonged drag on growth. “All heating furnaces use LPG and, given the shortage and curbs on industrial use, factories have shut,” said Pankaj Chadha, chairman of the Engineering Exports Promotion Council. “In Gujarat, about 98% of engineering firms are shut, while in Maharashtra around half the units have closed.”India's ‘Goldilocks’ economy
Before the Iran war, India’s economy appeared to be in a sweet spot. The central government projected a GDP growth rate of as much as 7.2% for FY27, while inflation was expected to stay close to the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target at least until September. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had described the outlook as a “Goldilocks” scenario, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged for an extended period. The external sector has held up relatively well recently, though rising oil prices and a wider trade deficit and current account deficit are emerging risks. “The external sector has emerged as the most at risk in this crisis” said Anubhuti Sahay, economist with Standard Chartered Plc. “While import cover is still about 10 months, the rupee has to act as the shock absorber.”India's import-export math
Exports may suffer as disruptions hit nearly $200 billion of shipments to Gulf countries, potentially widening the current account deficit and putting pressure on the rupee, already near record lows of around 92.5 per dollar. The region is also critical for remittances, with about 10 million Indian workers sending nearly $50 billion home annually. Economists warn the inflation surge could undo years of efforts by the RBI, which brought price growth under control last year. The central bank had expected retail inflation to remain near its 4% target until at least September. 🔗 Number Theory: How markets have fared in 18 days of war “Ripple effects would be felt across industries, including at restaurants and manufacturing units reliant on liquefied petroleum gas,” said Shumita Deveshwar, chief economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard. Inflation could accelerate to about 6% by September or October, she said. Indian Economy Stay updated with the latest Business News on Petrol Price, Gold Rate, Silver Rates, Diesel Prices along with Income Tax Calculator News / Business / Iran War Impact To Show On India GDP, Inflation In Risk To ‘Goldilocks’ Economy See LessSurging crude oil prices and acute LPG shortage are rippling through the Indian economy as the Iran war drags on, disrupting industries and prompting analysts to cut growth forecasts while warning of rising inflation.
India is among the economies most exposed to the West Asia crisis as it imports about 90% of its crude oil and nearly half of its liquefied petroleum gas. About half of its crude and over three-fourths of LPG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively shut by Iran, pushing oil prices above $100 a barrel.
The disruption has triggered an LPG shortage across households, hotels and restaurants, while industries that rely on gas are shutting down operations. The shortages are raising concerns about a sharp slowdown in Asia’s third-largest economy just as it was recovering from the pandemic.
Economists at banks including Goldman Sachs Group, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and IndusInd Bank Ltd. expect slower GDP growth due to reliance on imported oil. Goldman Sachs last week cut its 2026 growth forecast by half a percentage point to 6.5% while ANZ sees expansion slowing to 6.5%-6.8%, in the fiscal year starting April from about 7%. IndusInd Bank’s Gaurav Kapur sees a 30-basis-point hit with growth at around 6.5% and warns weaker consumption could weigh on the recovery.
“The overall impact on growth will be more dampening than inflation,” Kapur said. “The government has enough fiscal space to absorb the oil price hit through excise duty cuts, but the hit on the industrial sector will impact growth.”
The conflict thousands of miles away is already affecting daily life in India.
“The government should make some arrangements for us,” Singh said. “When there is no gas, they should ensure we can still earn enough to survive.”
Gig work such as food delivery has become one of India’s fastest-growing sources of employment, with the workforce rising to about 12 million by March 2025 from 7.7 million in March 2021, a 55% increase, according to the government’s Economic Survey.
Gas rationing is disrupting key industries, from fertiliser and aluminium to helium used in semiconductor manufacturing, raising the risk of a prolonged drag on growth.
“All heating furnaces use LPG and, given the shortage and curbs on industrial use, factories have shut,” said Pankaj Chadha, chairman of the Engineering Exports Promotion Council. “In Gujarat, about 98% of engineering firms are shut, while in Maharashtra around half the units have closed.”
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had described the outlook as a “Goldilocks” scenario, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged for an extended period. The external sector has held up relatively well recently, though rising oil prices and a wider trade deficit and current account deficit are emerging risks.
“The external sector has emerged as the most at risk in this crisis” said Anubhuti Sahay, economist with Standard Chartered Plc. “While import cover is still about 10 months, the rupee has to act as the shock absorber.”
Economists warn the inflation surge could undo years of efforts by the RBI, which brought price growth under control last year. The central bank had expected retail inflation to remain near its 4% target until at least September.
🔗 Number Theory: How markets have fared in 18 days of war
“Ripple effects would be felt across industries, including at restaurants and manufacturing units reliant on liquefied petroleum gas,” said Shumita Deveshwar, chief economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard. Inflation could accelerate to about 6% by September or October, she said.
Source: HindustanTimes
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