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Indian Long-Bond Bull Turns Seller as Supply Concerns Mount
Indian Long-Bond Bull Turns Seller as Supply Concerns Mount
(Bloomberg) -- One of India's most prominent long-bond bulls has slashed his holdings, reflecting the recent change in sentiment after doubling down on the securities just last year.
Suyash Choudhary, a two-decade veteran and head of fixed income at Bandhan AMC Ltd., has cut exposure to the 7.3% 2053 government paper, citing concerns about oversupply. The bond accounted for 50.5% of Bandhan's dynamic bond fund and 51.1% of its government securities fund at the end of July. The note had made up nearly the entire portfolio since early 2024.
Sentiment in the local bond market has darkened, as traders brace for the Reserve Bank of India to pause its easing cycle, while the government's plan to slash consumption taxes in response to steep US tariffs raises fears of higher federal borrowings. Long-duration notes, including the 30-year paper, have borne the brunt of the selloff.
“We find less comfort in relying on this part of the curve as a performance driver,” Choudhary wrote in a note released Friday. “Market demand has not kept pace with the rise in duration supply.” The fund manager said he now holds “very marginal positions in the long end,” and has moved to securities maturing in 14-15 years.
Bandhan's dynamic bond fund has dropped 3.2% over the past three months, faster than the category average decline of 1%, according to data compiled by Value Research. On Monday, the 10-year bonds fell to the lowest level since March, with yields rising 20 basis points over the past six sessions.
READ: Go Long on 30-Year Bonds to Play India Story, Fund Manager Says
Choudhary had been one of the biggest bulls on the duration trade, citing the government's fiscal discipline, compression in India's current account deficit and the central bank's focus on inflation as reasons for optimism. Those factors were likely to provide a boost to the debt market, he said in an interview in June last year.
But supply dynamics have since shifted. Since the start of financial year on April 1, state governments have also ramped up borrowings, particularly in longer maturities, Choudhary wrote in the note.
The average tenor of state bonds has climbed to 17 years in the first half of the fiscal year till date, well above the historical 12-year average, according to a Kotak Mahindra Bank note.
Still, Choudhary says the macro backdrop remains bullish for bonds. Fiscal worries are likely overdone, and much of the damage from RBI's commentary and change in stance has played out.
The 14—15 year segment has more market participation, and the scope for yield compression against the benchmark 10-year paper appears stronger in this bucket, he said.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
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Source: LiveMint
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