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How Pakistan won over Trump to become an unlikely mediator in the Iran war
Pakistan's role as intermediary in this conflict took many by surprise.
But perhaps it shouldn't.
The head of its armed forces, Field Marshall Asim Munir, is in US President Donald Trump's favour. The US leader frequently refers to him as his "favourite" Field Marshall and has previously spoken about how Munir knows Iran "better than most".
Iran is not only a neighbour of Pakistan, with whom it shares a 900km (559 miles) or so border, but by its own messages also has a "brotherly" relationship with deep cultural and religious ties.
It also has no US air bases.
And unlike many of the usual intermediaries in the Gulf it has not yet been pulled into the conflict.
Crucially, it is willing to wade in - peace between the US and Iran by many accounts would be in its interest.
Still, there have been questions about how a country embroiled in conflict with two of its neighbours - Afghanistan and India - has positioned itself as a bringer of peace.
The country is currently bombing Afghanistan and tensions with India led to a fear of nuclear escalation only last year.
Pakistan has so far walked the tightrope between Iran and the US, passing messages between the two sides, hosting foreign ministers from other concerned Muslim nations and hitting the diplomatic telephones.
But the balancing act is not risk-free.
Pakistan is highly dependent on imported oil, much of it coming through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Pakistan, I'd argue, more than almost any other country outside of the Middle East has a lot of skin in the game here," Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC.
It has a really compelling interest to do what it can to contribute to de-escalation efforts.
Pakistan's government increased the price of petrol and diesel by around 20% at the start of March and has already introduced measures including a four-day working week for government employees to try to save fuel.
"If the war continues, the economic pressures in Pakistan will increase tremendously," says Farhan Siddiqi, Professor of Political Science at the Institute of Business Administration, Karachi.
There's also a fear about what an escalation could bring.
In September last year, Pakistan signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, agreeing that "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both".
It's led to questions about what Pakistan would do if Saudi Arabia joined the war and invoked the pact.
"The problem for us is that if we are asked to join the war on the Saudi side, our entire Western border will be largely insecure," says Siddiqi.
Pakistan is already in "all-out war" with Afghanistan; it accuses the Afghan Taliban of harbouring terrorist groups inside its borders, which the Taliban government deny.
When challenged about its apparent contradictory position to diplomacy when applied to its own conflicts, Pakistan has said that it tried years of talks that did not yield the security it needed.
But Siddiqi points out that opening another front is not the only concern were Pakistan to be pulled into the war, adding that there is also the "domestic reputational cost".
In the days after Iran's Supreme Leader was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike, pro-Iran demonstrators took to the streets across Pakistan - several were killed including those who tried to storm the US consulate in Karachi.
"Public sentiment in Pakistan is overwhelmingly pro-Iran," says Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistan ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
I'm sure that Pakistan's decision makers have been very sensitive to that.
And then there's the issue of Pakistan's global standing.
Pakistan is very sensitive to criticism that it doesn't have influence on the global stage," said Kugelman. "I don't think that's its main motivation for positioning itself as it has, but it has something to do with this as well.
This is high-stakes diplomacy, no question about it," adds Lodhi. "It's high-risk and high-reward. If it succeeds, of course, it catapults Pakistan to the top of the global diplomatic game.
And if it doesn't?
Lodhi doesn't think the damage will be too great.
Pakistan would still have been seen to have made a good faith effort. And if it didn't work, it wasn't because of Pakistan's lack of skills, but because you have a man who's terribly whimsical and completely, completely untrustworthy.
However, Kugelman sees some potential for backlash if after all this speculation of talks, both sides simply resume with even more force.
Pakistan could be susceptible to allegations that it was naive," he says of that scenario. "[And that it was] brought into an effort to try to negotiate while both sides were trying to create some breathing space to think about their next steps toward escalation.
It's unclear how things might play out, but what is clear is that Pakistan has been quick to capitalise its relationship with Trump.
Lodhi points to Pakistan nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize '"in recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention" during the Pakistan-India crisis in 2025, and Kabul handing over the man accused of planning the Kabul airport bombing during the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the US.
"Pakistan gave Trump two early wins, which are very important for him. That got the relationship off the ground and brought about this new warmth," said Lodhi.
"It's willing to play unconventional diplomatic games, unlike India," Kugelman adds.
The fact that Pakistan's senior leaders have gone out of the way to flatter the president, that's really helped their cause in Washington and has made Pakistan a more attractive facilitator and mediator in the eyes of the administration.
But the relationship with America is not Pakistan's only card.
Pakistan has realized that hedging is the best way to go about in regional diplomacy," said Siddiqi. "The kind of world that we face now is a world where states, especially the middle powers, are more comfortable in engaging with the policy of multi-alignment.
I think the reason why Pakistan is best positioned to speak to Iran is because it does not carry the perception of being pro-Israeli or even being very pro-American.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic meetings continue.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is on Tuesday travelling to China at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi.
But there are still big questions for Pakistan; and securing a peace deal is a long shot.
"Let's be fairly clear, the odds of a deal are not that high given how much mistrust there is between the Americans and the Iranians and how maximal the demands are on both the US and the Iranian side," said Kugelman.
I think that equation is the most difficult one that Pakistan is going to have to think through if its current plans don't work out.
Source: BBC
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