Bihar Polls: How NDA And Mahagathbandhan Stole Each Other’s Vote Banks

Bihar Polls: In The Great Caste Heist, How NDA And Mahagathbandhan Stole Each Other’s Vote Banks

Both ruling and opposition alliances reshuffle caste cards, cutting rivals' strongholds and boosting their own.

Patna: This year's Bihar election has turned into a caste experiment unlike any before. Both the ruling and opposition coalitions, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Magathbandhan respectively, have already nominated their candidates for all 243 seats in the state. Trimming old loyalties and building new ones, both sides have redrawn their social blueprints.

The NDA has cut down the number of Yadav and Muslim candidates to less than half compared to 2020. The RJD, Long powered by its Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base, has reduced tickets for Yadavs and given a big push to Bhumihar and Kushwaha candidates – six times more than before. The Congress, however, has stuck to its traditional mix of upper castes, Dalits and Muslims, hoping to revive its fading base.

Every party, though, has one thing in common: a surge in candidates from the Kushwaha and Extremely Backward Class (EBC) communities.

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The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) are contesting 202 seats, 23 fewer than last time. Both have slashed Yadav and Muslim candidates. The JD(U), which fielded 18 Yadav candidates in 2020, has reduced that number to 8. BJP's Yadav candidates dropped from 16 to 6. Together, they have reduced Yadav representation by 43%. Muslim candidates have also been halved, from 18 to just 8.

Among 243 NDA candidates, 162 are from upper castes and OBC backgrounds. Of them, 85 are forward-caste candiadtes, roughly every third nominees. That includes 37 Rajputs, 32 Bhumihars, 14 Brahmins and 2 Kayasths.

Why the change? In 2020, BJP's forward-caste and Vaishya candidates had the highest success rate – 55% for the forward-caste and 100% for Vaishyas. JD(U) had fielded 11 Muslim candidates, but all of them lost, while most EBCs won.

The RJD still banks on its M-Y core, but with a twist. It has reduced Yadav tickets from 58 to 51 and doubled Kushwaha representation from 8 to 16. Muslim candidates make up 13% of the party list, while Kushwahas now form 10%.

The biggest surprise is the rise of Bhumihar representation, from just one seat in 2020 to six this time. EBC candidates have been halved, but Vaishyas have multiplied fivefold, from two to eleven.

Tejashwi Yadav appears to be moving beyond the old M-Y base, using his ‘BAAP' formula, Bahujan, Agda (upper caste), Aadhi Aabadi (women) and Poor, to transform the RJD into an ‘A-to-Z' party and reach voters beyond its traditional 31% support.

Within the Mahagathbandhan, the Congress has chosen not to experiment much. It is contesting 61 seats this year, 10 fewer than in 2020. Of these, 21 candidates, roughly one-third, are from upper castes. Rajput representation has fallen from 10 to 5, while Bhumihar candidates are down slightly from 11 to 9.

But there is a new tilt toward the EBCs (from 3 candidates in 2020 to 7 this time). Dalits and Muslims continue to form the other major pillars of the Congress list.

The party has attempted to send mixed signals with its leadership changes. Rajesh Ram, a Dalit leader, replaced Akhilesh Singh as state party chief, a move meant to attract Dalit voters. But Singh, a Bhumihar by caste, was soon elevated to the Congress Working Committee, signalling that the party did not want to upset upper caste loyalties either.

Rahul Gandhi's recent Voter Adhikar Yatra through Bihar also reflected this dual focus: Dalits for moral revival and Bhumihars for electoral muscle.

As caste boundaries blur and old loyalties loosen, both alliances are gambling with new equations. The NDA is leaning heavily on upper castes and EBCs. The RJD is expanding from its M-Y fortress to include Kushwahas and Bhumihars. The Congress hopes old loyalties still hold.

But in a state where caste outweighs party lines, the question remains: who will turn this social arithmetic into real votes?

Source: ZeeNews
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