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Who will win the World Cup
Who will win the World Cup? BBC pundits make their predictions
The World Cup starts in Mexico City's Azteca Stadium on Thursday and finishes in the MetLife Stadium near New York City on 19 July.
Forty-eight teams will contest the tournament, which will be played out in 104 matches across three countries over 39 days, including the co-hosts - Canada, Mexico and the United States - plus holders Argentina.
Who will get their hands on the famous gold trophy this time? Who are the other main contenders? And how will England and Scotland do?
BBC Sport's TV and radio football pundits and co-commentators have predicted what will happen over the next five weeks, and we have asked AI and Opta's 'supercomputer' for their picks too.
Alan Shearer: France, but there's a caveat that comes with it - only if there is no in-house fighting. With the ability they have in forward positions, two or three big players are going to be left out every game, so it will come down to whether they cope with that in the right way.
Danny Murphy: It's hard to look past France with the firepower they have, when you think about extra time in hot weather against tired legs.
The likes of Rayan Cherki, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue can't all start, but they can be gamechangers if they come on after 70 minutes in 30 degrees heat.
Olivier Giroud: For me the two strongest teams are France and Spain. But will they meet each other in the final or before? That will be the question, but I obviously hope France will win.
Wayne Rooney: England and Spain will make the final, and hopefully England will win it.
Thomas Frank: France are up there of course, and Spain too because they are very clear in how they play. That gives them a massive strength, although I still doubt them a little because they rely on Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams as the wingers and, if they don't have them, I am not sure they have enough individual quality to do it in the end.
Along with Brazil, Argentina, England and Portugal, they are the main contenders. A lot of people are saying it is France or Spain, but for me it is between Brazil and England... and I am saying England!
Micah Richards: How teams deal with the humidity is going to play a big part at this tournament, so the South American teams will be strong.
But I just feel it's going to be a team who are really good at keeping the ball and that points me in the direction of Spain instead. Argentina will go close though, because of the way they work for Lionel Messi. I still think he can do something special, too.
Steph Houghton: Hopefully it's England but, looking at other teams, France have so much quality right through their team - especially in attacking areas.
Gael Clichy: France, Spain and England are the three for me who will do well. Spain seem to win everything, at every age group, so of course they are up there, but being French I am going for them to win it.
Joe Hart: England. But I am not actually that bothered whether I am right or wrong. I just like to back my people and I want England to do it.
Martin Keown: Looking at the draw, there will be some absolute blockbuster quarter-finals if the favourites win their groups, like England versus Brazil and Argentina against Portugal - or Messi against Cristiano Ronaldo.
Is this the hardest World Cup there has ever been to win? Maybe. It feels very open. My head is telling me the best team is France, my heart is telling me that it could be England.
Paul Robinson: The only thing that stops France from winning it is France. They will need a harmonious dressing room.
Pat Nevin: This is a guess, but England have a real chance. Along with France, they are my favourites and it's a toss-up between the two as to who will win it.
I also wouldn't be shocked if we get a left-field winner this time, and Morocco are the ones who jump out at me, because I covered most of their games when they reached the last four in Qatar. From what I hear, they might be better now than they were then - and they were great then. They will be used to the heat too, which always helps.
Ellen White: Well, obviously I want England to win it. That's what I am going with, but if that wasn't to happen then France have a very good squad.
Tony Pulis: It's ridiculous that there are 48 teams, and 40 more games than last time. Fair play to all the countries that are going, everyone will enjoy it, but football at this level is now being used as a cash cow.
I've got Argentina, Brazil, France, England, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Senegal as my quarter-finalists. My pick to win it? France.
Chris Sutton: Spain are an outstanding team but I've gone for France to win the past two World Cups and I wasn't far wrong. I am not going to change my mind now - they didn't really click at the last Euros but I look at their frontline and think they will be hard to stop.
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Total votes
France (9): Scott Brown, Gael Clichy, Rachel Corsie, Olivier Giroud, Danny Murphy, Paul Robinson, Tony Pulis, Alan Shearer & Chris Sutton
England (7): Thomas Frank, Joe Hart, Steph Houghton, Martin Keown, Wayne Rooney, Sue Smith & Ellen White
Spain (1): Micah Richards
Thomas Frank: To win the World Cup you need individual quality, and England have definitely got that. Their midfield is very strong and if they can put the right defence together it is strong enough.
They have a real chance. The team will be well structured because Thomas Tuchel is a top coach, plus they have experience in these tournaments and I am sure they will get their togetherness right because they seem to have some fantastic characters and leaders in the group.
Ellen White: We've got an unbelievable squad, and I feel like Tuchel will create a nice blend in our team. We also have some great players, who have a lot of momentum - like Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka who have just won the Premier League with Arsenal.
Steph Houghton: As well as experience, we've got some quality young players coming through. The only thing that worries me is a lack of game time for some players in our defensive unit, like John Stones or Reece James.
Alan Shearer: I don't think we will win it, but we can make the semi-finals because of the ability we have, plus we have a manager who is not going to be afraid to make big decisions and leave certain players out. I am not sure that has always been the case.
Hopefully he can get the best out of Harry Kane, like Bayern Munich have done this season when they have had players running past him. My guess is that Morgan Rogers, Saka and Marcus Rashford will play, and there are more goals there for England - they have all scored goals all season.
Wayne Rooney: I'm going with Kane to get the Golden Boot.
Chris Sutton: I worry a bit about England's defence, but you go through their team and they don't have too many weaknesses.
Sue Smith: England have an elite manager who knows how to win things. The team is picked on togetherness and balance, but still has the star quality to succeed.
Danny Murphy: It would be a disappointment not to make the semi-finals with the quality we have got. I think we are a bit too reliant on Kane. Lots of great teams are reliant on one goalscorer but when you look at the other players in the squad, none of them have been prolific or even consistent for England.
At the back, I wouldn't have us down as being as good as France and Spain either. But being weaker defensively than we are offensively doesn't mean that we are not capable of winning it, if the luck goes our way.
Martin Keown: England have potentially got the toughest of any last-16 tie, if we end up playing Mexico at the Azteca Stadium [if both teams win their groups and beat third-placed teams in the last 32]. Talk about advantage Mexico, taking into account altitude and climate and what that might take from the England team. Then we've probably got Argentina or Portugal in the semi-finals if they progress as expected too.
But, whatever happens with the draw, I feel like the chemistry and balance of the group will be the important factor. Winning the World Cup always seems to come down to a piece of brilliance, and Tuchel has left out one or two maverick players who are capable of that because of his focus on the group, but that doesn't mean we can't still win it.
England are very much in this fight. We are going to a World Cup which is probably the most open in living memory, because of the quality on offer, and we have a team now that dominates the ball.
Micah Richards: For England to win it, everyone is going to have to be at their best, and it feels like other countries have got players in better form right now. I actually think we are best placed to win the next Euros, in 2028. All our top players will be in their prime then, apart from Kane who will probably have retired.
Paul Robinson: There are players in this England team now that have played in these big games before, so that might just be the missing ingredient that gets us over the line this time.
We say it every time we go to a tournament - that on their day we are capable of beating anyone, but something has been missing. Now? That big-game mentality is there.
Joe Hart: England are 100% in the conversation. They are a top team, and they have made good progression - hopefully this tournament will be the one.
Pat Nevin: The worry for Scotland is that two of the favourites, for me anyway, in Brazil and Morocco are in their group. It means their whole plan depends on beating Haiti in their first game. Everyone in Scotland knows it, and the manager does too. So, they cannot start pragmatically - they have to hit the ground with an absolute sprint.
Can they do it? Well they have had a good build-up and the big reason I am very hopeful is that when we played against Germany in the first game of the 2024 European Championship we looked exhausted, and some of our best players weren't fully fit.
That is not the case this time. John McGinn is flying. I've watched Scott McTominay and he is in extraordinary form for Napoli just now, and Lawrence Shankland is firing in the goals.
OK, we have lost Billy Gilmour to injury but, in reality, Scotland look to me as if they are the strongest they've been since Steve Clarke took charge in 2019 and that is down to injuries, or players being left out and getting rest. Andy Robertson looks in brilliant nick because he has only played half a season at Liverpool. It's exactly the same with McGinn, who was out for a few weeks at the start of the year.
Chris Sutton: Scotland will beat Haiti - it is just how Steve Clarke goes about it and whether he goes with two up top, which I think is worth the risk in this game.
Ben Gannon-Doak is going to be important for them - he didn't start a Premier League game for Bournemouth last season but he gives them that bit of dynamism when everyone will be focusing on McTominay in the middle of the park, and McGinn.
Most people are thinking Brazil and Morocco are nailed-on to be the top two in Group C, but I actually think Scotland could nick a point off one of them too. It might sound far-fetched but they could finish higher than third.
Alan Shearer: If you win one group game then the likelihood is you are going to make the last 32, and Scotland's chance is against Haiti. With their fans behind them - they will have a crazy following as usual from the Tartan Army - they can do it.
Tony Pulis: Scotland have got a record of doing things they shouldn't do at World Cups, but they can't fail against Haiti... surely?
Scott Brown: We will get three points and get out of our group. The first game against Haiti would be a good one to get that done, but it won't be as easy as everyone thinks.
Steph Houghton: It's a tough group for them but I think they will make it out of there, and they will believe they can do something special. They have real individual quality in a few positions and, as a group, they know what kind of team they are and play to their strengths.
Rachel Corsie: We will get out of our group, and I think we will get through one more game after that. Then, who knows?
Sue Smith: They can make the last 16.
Ellen White: If they can put in a big performance against Haiti and give themselves some momentum and confidence then that can get them into the knockout rounds.
Thomas Frank: I am going for Norway. They have some well-known Premier League players like Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard but they also have others who can change games - Alexander Sorloth of Atletico Madrid, Antonio Nusa at RB Leipzig and Oscar Bobb of Fulham, who is a really top talent.
It is their first World Cup since 1998 so they will come with a drive and a hunger too. I know everyone will do that when they come to this tournament, but it is just different when you have not been there for so long. Scotland will have that enthusiasm too, but they do not have the same individual quality.
Paul Robinson: Saudi Arabia will surprise a lot of people. I cover the Saudi Pro League every week and I know their players inside out. We saw what Al-Hilal did at last year's Club World Cup, beating Manchester City and drawing with Real Madrid, and I can see Saudi Arabia bringing that to this tournament.
Turkey will be tough to beat and while I know Belgium and the Netherlands are not exactly outsiders, they are not among the favourites either. No-one is really talking about them but they both have a mix of experience and younger players and they will be happy going under the radar at the moment.
Ellen White: I am looking forward to watching Norway, and Japan did well when they beat England in March.
Rachel Corsie: Turkey could be tricky for some, and I don't know if this is really a surprise but I think Japan could go beyond where their world ranking of 18 suggests.
Steph Houghton: Japan. I really liked the way they played at Wembley.
Olivier Giroud: One of the African teams. Maybe Ivory Coast, Senegal or Ghana - all dangerous on their day.
Alan Shearer: Morocco could upset some of the big-hitters, like they did when they beat Spain and Portugal to reach the semi-finals in 2022, but my concern for this World Cup is that the number of teams could dilute the quality in the early stages. There could be a lot of tedious games, until we get to knockout football.
Danny Murphy: The underdogs who do well are usually based on a strong defence, like Morocco were last time. Ecuador have got players like Chelsea's Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho of Paris St-Germain and Arsenal's Piero Hincapie and they had an incredible defensive record in qualification, plus they will be used to playing in humidity.
Wayne Rooney: Norway could do quite well, and I like Ecuador too.
Martin Keown: Ecuador will take some beating. When I've watched them they always keep things very tight.
Chris Sutton: I am not sure Ecuador will score enough goals with 36-year-old Enner Valencia leading their line but they are one of my picks, along with Japan.
I became a bit of a celebrity in Japan when I correctly backed them to beat Germany at the last World Cup, or at least I appeared on TV over there to talk about it anyway. They have got some excellent technical players and will be dangerous, whoever they play.
Joe Hart: I am not really a lover of dark horses. When it comes to any tie I always want the main team to win, and it will be a pretty similar feeling when I watch this tournament. I want everyone to go out there and express themselves, have a wicked time... but ultimately I don't want anyone to get in the way of England!
Gael Clichy: Switzerland are a very dynamic group of young players, and their team and federation has progressed a lot in the past eight years or so. I have played there so I have been following them, and I'd like them to be the surprise of this tournament.
Sue Smith: I am going for the US as the hosts who will go further than people think.
Tony Pulis: Japan might have a good run at it and Norway, Morocco and Senegal are my other outsiders to watch.
You've read what our expert humans think, but what about the machines?
Opta's 'supercomputer' can tell you your team's exact chances of winning any competition at any given time.
It is actually a complex algorithm that uses a model based on betting-market odds and the sports analytics company's own 'Power Rankings', which are calculated using past results.
For this World Cup, it has simulated the outcome of the tournament 25,000 times - and has calculated Spain are the most likely winners (in 16.1% of the simulations).
France (13%), England (11.2%) and Argentina (10.4%) are also given strong chances of glory. Scotland? Not so much.
Clarke's side are down the list in 33rd place, with only a 0.2% chance of winning the World Cup according to Opta, but on the upside, in the same simulations they got out of Group C two-thirds (66.1%) of the time.
AI has also had its say. Its prediction was generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat - we simply asked the tool 'who will win the World Cup and how will England and Scotland do?'
Copilot Chat says Spain will win it, England will reach the semi-finals and Scotland will go out in the group stage, despite finishing third in their group.
Do you disagree with our experts? Think algorithms are for boffins, not for football? You can pick your winners below.
Source: BBC
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