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Big oil's complicated calculus for investing in Venezuela
President Donald Trump has clashed with major US oil companies over investment plans in Venezuela, saying he may block Exxon Mobil after its CEO called the country “uninvestable.” Trump wants oil firms to invest heavily to boost supply and keep oil prices low, while industry leaders remain cautious about risk, costs and shareholder returns.
"I'll probably be inclined to keep Exxon out," President Donald Trump told reporters last Sunday. "I didn't like their response. They're playing too cute."
Trump, who has promised that U.S. oil companies would spend $100 billion in Venezuela after the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, was referring to comments made by Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods at a White House event this month in which he called Venezuela "uninvestable."
The exchange reflects a fundamental disagreement between the U.S. oil industry and the president, one that won't be easily resolved. Trump wants low oil prices. The leaders of the oil majors want higher oil prices. He wants them to invest heavily. They're all about economizing on investment and cutting risk while rewarding shareholders with dividends and share repurchases.
Now the two sides are at an impasse. Trump will either create incentives for oil companies to invest in Venezuela or punish them for holding out. And the conflicting priorities will inform what happens next.
"We're not going to aggressively put lots of extra barrels into an oversupplied market," Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, told securities analysts on an earnings call in November, well before the White House meeting with oil executives Jan. 9.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth bragged on a November earnings call that the company had gotten good at eliminating marginal investment projects. "We're killing things earlier," he said.
Oil executives seem to not only be balking at the risk of having assets nationalized but are also expressing a view that has become standard across the sector: Big new projects have to survive intense scrutiny.
Venezuela's tarlike oil has to be diluted to flow through a pipeline. It has to be upgraded locally before it even gets to a refinery. That's a multibillion-dollar expense.
For most of the past 15 years, Big Oil was focused on projects -- such as drilling for North American shale oil -- that have a quick and predictable payback, even though production drops off steeply after the first year. To some extent, the companies deprioritized projects such as those in offshore oil, or heavy crude deposits like Venezuela's, that keep producing at low cost for 10 to 20 years but require more up-front investment to bring online.
So a lot of oil came from fields that were low in risk but relatively high in cost. According to Rystad Energy, a research company, in 2024 North American shale had a break-even cost of $45 a barrel. That was expensive compared with offshore deepwater ($43), offshore shelf ($37) and onshore Middle East ($27).
From 2014 to 2024, daily crude production in the United States increased 71% while production in the rest of the world decreased a couple of tenths of a percent, according to data in the Statistical Review of World Energy 2025.
That's changing a bit. North American shale is beginning to be tapped out, although the oil majors are using advanced technology to get more oil out at lower costs.
Since around 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices spiked, the oil majors have shifted some of their interest back toward higher-risk, longer-payout projects in parts of the world where oil is cheapest -- not North America. Exxon and Chevron have explored bidding on exploration opportunities in Libya. Last year, Chevron signed an agreement in principle to develop Iraq's vast Nasiriyah oil field and other assets. Exxon is also in discussions with Iraq.
Even Iran looks interesting to Big Oil for the first time since the overthrow of the shah in 1979. "If we could go in there and really be able to produce in Iran again, the sky is the limit for that country," Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, said Tuesday on CNBC.
But that doesn't mean the oil majors are throwing caution to the winds. Devin McDermott, an oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, said that even if sanctions were removed and the oil majors were to do business with Iran, "they would need confidence in the stability of the regime, fiscal terms that are attractive and competitive. All of those things would need to fall into place first."
Further complicating calculations, projections of future oil demand have become more uncertain with the rise of renewables.
"For the first 150 years, oil has been a growth business. What's become a real question is, 'Well, are we going to see oil demand plateau or even decline?'" said Jim Burkhard, the global head of crude oil research for S&P Global Energy.
As for Venezuela, there actually is a case for the Western majors to invest. Although its oil is heavy and sulfurous, it is abundant, well mapped and partly developed. Investing in Venezuela would be a way for an oil company to ensure a plentiful supply of crude for decades to come.
But it would still be a big lift. Venezuela's production fell 64% from 2014 to 2024, indicating that bringing it up to world standards would be a long, slow process. Oil companies don't want to "get out too far on the risk curve on projects," McDermott said.
Trump would like oil companies to invest more to bring down the price of crude, which would in turn lower prices at the pump and possibly boost his approval ratings. Setting aside the fact that the timing is way off -- projects negotiated now won't bear fruit for years -- the president's preferences bump up against what oil executives perceive as their duty to shareholders. Eimear Bonner, Chevron's chief financial officer, said to Wall Street analysts last year: "Not everything gets funded. Period."Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
Source: EconomicTimes
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