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Australia's LA Olympics Berth Secure Even After Early T20 World Cup Exit
Australia's LA Olympics Berth Secure Even After Early T20 World Cup Exit
The Mitchell Marsh-led Australian team might have made an unusual and unexpected early exit from the T20 World Cup, but thanks to their performances over the years, their berth in the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028 is still firm and secure.
The injury-hit team, led by Marsh, slumped to consecutive losses to Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka, before a washed-out clash between Zimbabwe and Ireland confirmed their premature exit.
Australia still have one game left against Oman later this week, but the embarrassing elimination has raised fears it could hurt their chances of qualifying for the 2028 Summer Olympics.
But Australia remain with time on their side.
Cricket is all set to return to the Olympics after 126 years, with the T20 format making its debut at the 2028 Summer Olympics, scheduled to be staged at Fairplex in Pomona, California.
While qualification for the women’s competition will be decided through this year’s T20 World Cup, the pathway for the men’s tournament is yet to be finalised.
As per a report in The Guardian last year, the men’s event might feature six teams. The United States will qualify as hosts, with the remaining spots expected to go to the highest-ranked teams from each ICC regional division, the Americas, Africa, Europe, Asia and Oceania, based on the T20I rankings at the designated cut-off date.
The Age suggests that, having started the T20 World Cup ahead of New Zealand in the world rankings that will decide the automatic Olympic qualification spots at the end of the Cup, Australia’s early exit may have allowed New Zealand to leapfrog them.
Based on ranking permutations that teams were still working through on Wednesday, New Zealand could now seal Olympic qualification by progressing to the semi-finals or going even further in the tournament.
New Zealand boast a strong record in global T20 events, having reached at least the semi-finals in 2007, 2016, 2021 and 2022.
If they manage that again, Australia could be pushed into a cut-throat qualification playoff alongside other second-ranked regional teams for the final berth in the six-team men’s T20 competition at the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA.
The Olympic rankings cut-off is all set by the ICC at the end of this World Cup, subject to final clearance from the International Olympic Committee.
Though Australia trail New Zealand by just one spot, an eight-point gap remains and the ICC’s weighted ranking system, designed by David Kendix, makes quick shifts unlikely.
Team ratings are worked out by dividing total points by games played, with results weighted for opposition strength and recency. Matches from the last two years count, while those from the previous two-year cycle carry half weight.
The rankings are updated around May 1 each year.
Australia’s rating is derived from 48 games, while New Zealand’s is based on 62. If the Black Caps reach the World Cup final, their total would increase to 67 matches, compared to Australia’s projected 49.
Hence, even a T20 World Cup triumph will leave New Zealand a tad bit behind Australia in the ratings and hence, the latter would still be an advantageous position.
Source: News18
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