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Assembly polls 2026: 5% swing and Muslims could decide BJP’s fate in WB, Assam
Assembly elections 2026: 5% swing, one vote block could decide BJP’s fate in West Bengal and Assam
In the four states and one UT that are going to polls, the BJP is faced with different challenges. It is aiming to form the government in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, while in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the party is trying to expand its presence and build long-term support.
Assembly Elections 2026: Polls in four states and one Union Territory (UT) are scheduled over the next 30 days. The elections are politically crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, the party is faced with different challenges. The BJP is aiming to form the government in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, while in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it is trying to expand its presence and build long-term support.
The BJP’s rise in West Bengal over the past decade has been striking. In 2015, the party appointed Kailash Vijayvargiya as general secretary and gave him charge of the state. At the time, it had just two MPs from the state and no MLAs.
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections was a turning point. The BJP won 18 out of 42 seats and expanded its base. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the party secured 38% of the vote and won 77 seats, its best-ever performance in the state.
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC), however, retained power with 48% vote share and 215 seats.
Going into the 2026 elections, the BJP is closer than ever to forming a government in West Bengal. The contest is largely between the BJP and the TMC. If the BJP manages to pull even 5% of TMC’s vote share, the electoral arithmetic could considerably change.
In 2021, the party lost 38 seats by margins of less than 5% and 75 seats by margins of less than 10%. A swing in these constituencies could help the party convert many close contests into victories.
By this calculation, gaining ground in seats lost by narrow margins could push the BJP’s tally past 150 seats and put it in contention to emerge as the largest party.
Election analysts believe that the BJP has a realistic opportunity to challenge Mamata because anti-incumbency, unemployment and local dissatisfaction could influence voter behaviour.
Assam has another high-stakes contest for the BJP. In 2015, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is presently chief minister of the state, left the Congress and joined the BJP. It brought a change in Assam politics. In the 2016 Assembly elections, his party tied up with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). The alliance secured 86 seats out of 126, with the BJP alone winning 60 seats. It was the first BJP government in a northeastern state, with Sarbananda Sonowal becoming the chief minister.
To strengthen its presence in the region, the BJP formed the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) in May 2016, bringing regional parties together. Sarma became its convenor. In 2021, the BJP returned to power for a second consecutive term, and Sarma took over as the chief minister.
For the 2026 elections, the BJP is preparing for a third consecutive term under Sarma’s leadership. Assam holds strategic importance as the largest state in the Northeast and a gateway to the region. A loss here would weaken the BJP’s regional influence.
According to the 2011 Census, Muslims make up about 34% of Assam’s population. If their votes split between the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the BJP could benefit.
However, if these voters consolidate behind the Congress, the contest could tighten. The BJP has highlighted issues like alleged illegal immigration from Bangladesh, while Sarma has built an assertive leadership image.
Tamil Nadu politics has long revolved around two Dravidian parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The BJP has struggled due to perceptions of being a northern or Hindi-speaking party.
In 2001, the party contested with the DMK and won four seats, though the AIADMK formed the government under J Jayalalithaa.
Later, the BJP allied with the AIADMK and again won four seats in 2021, while DMK leader MK Stalin became the chief minister. After the elections, former IPS officer K Annamalai was appointed state the BJP state president. He launched an aggressive outreach campaign, including the ‘En Mann, En Makkal Padyatra’ (my land, my people march), which covered all districts and targeted corruption and family politics.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party contested 19 seats with smaller regional allies but failed to win any. Annamalai himself lost from Coimbatore. However, the BJP secured 11.2% vote share, up from 2.6% in the 2021 Assembly elections. The party finished second in nine seats, showing an increasing presence.
The BJP has tied up again with the AIADMK and smaller regional parties for the upcoming elections. The party will contest 27 seats, while the AIADMK will fight 178 seats. The party’s goal is to strengthen itself as a political alternative and attract voters dissatisfied with Dravidian parties.
Election analysts believe that the BJP has gradually expanded in states dominated by regional parties, and Tamil Nadu could offer further growth.
Kerala is often described as BJP’s final frontier in the South. Politics here revolves around the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) for decades. The BJP opened its account in 2016 when O Rajagopal won the Nemom seat. However, in 2021, the party lost its only seat and returned to zero.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Malayalam actor Suresh Gopi won from Thrissur and became BJP’s first MP from Kerala. The party’s vote share rose to 16.8%, up from 13% in 2019.
Later, in December 2025, the party defeated the Left in the Thiruvananthapuram municipal corporation that boosted its confidence ahead of 2026 elections.
Kerala’s social composition is a challenge. Around 45% of the population comprises Muslims and Christians, communities that are said to have traditionally not backed the BJP. The party is now trying to reach Christian voters, fielding seven Christian candidates and forming alliances with local parties, including Twenty-20.
The strategy aims at winning a few seats, create triangular contests and emerge as a decisive force in the state.
In Puducherry, the BJP formed a government in alliance with the All India NR Congress (AINRC), a regional political party, in 2021 and won six of nine seats it contested, while the AINRC secured ten. With three nominated MLAs, the BJP strengthened its position in the Assembly.
In 2026, the party aims to retain power and expand its seat share. It also hopes to send a message that it can successfully run coalition governments in southern India.
Across these five regions, BJP’s strategy varies, but the stakes are high. From forming governments to expanding its footprint, the upcoming elections could define the party’s political trajectory in multiple parts of the country.
Source: ZeeNews
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