Will Sunday's snap election gamble pay off for Japan's first female premier?

Japan heads to the polls again on Sunday for its second general election in as many years. The snap vote has caught the ruling party, the opposition and much of the electorate off guard.

Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female prime minister, is betting on her personal popularity, hoping to succeed where her party failed just last year: delivering a clear public mandate for the long-ruling but deeply unpopular Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

It is a political gamble - one her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, made, and lost badly. Voters will now decide whether it will pay off.

"The difference this time is that her approval across most media polls has been much, much higher than her predecessors," says Rintaro Nishimura, an analyst and senior associate at The Asia Group's Japan Practice.

Conventional wisdom says: when approval is high, you call an election.

Since taking office last October, Sanae Takaichi has dominated headlines, not through policy or legislation, but through political performance.

The "work, work, work" mantra in her acceptance speech reinforced the image of an energised, relentless leader.

In just over three months, she has cultivated a highly visible public profile. She's taken high-profile visits from world leaders, including receiving Donald Trump only a week into her premiership.

When they appeared aboard the USS George Washington in Yokosuka, the prime minister raised her fists in the air as President Trump lavished her with praise.

And just two days before February's vote, President Trump endorsed Takaichi saying she has "already proven to be a strong, powerful, and wise leader... one that truly loves her country".

There was also her surprise appearance playing the song Golden from the film K-Pop Demon Hunters on the drums alongside South Korea's president, and the selfie with Italy's prime minister.

These were all viral moments projecting confidence and momentum, and distanced her from the traditionally stagnant and at times boring image of her predecessors.

"There is an atmosphere of positivity about her being the first female prime minister in Japanese history, about her being successful at diplomacy… with her having approval ratings in the 60s or sometimes as high as 70%," says Jeffrey Hall, lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies.

Professor Hall added that this image has been propped up by "a large conservative group on the internet of users and social media influencers who provide a strong base for Takaichi, with posts showing her in a positive way going viral almost every day during the election".

So we have an atmosphere where users who log on to X [formerly Twitter]… the algorithm will be showing them very positive videos about Takaichi.

Takaichi has also consolidated support among the LDP's conservative base, reviving long-dormant goals such as constitutional revision and emphasising traditional values.

She's positioned herself as the leader who brings the LDP back to its [conservative] origins," Nishimura says. "That has resonated internally among party elders as well as with the LDP base.

Beyond the conservative base, Takaichi has connected with younger voters in a way not seen by a Japanese leader before. Her handbags and pink pens have become unlikely zeitgeist items.

"There's definitely an appeal among young people," Hall says.

Young people tend to be the most disconnected from politics in Japan… but Takaichi has taken on this kind of idol-like, or celebrity-like, status among some young people.

He points to media reports of sana-katsu - obsessive fan activity inspired by idol culture.

That personal appeal has translated into strong approval ratings which have hovered between the mid-fifties and high sixties, according to NHK and other major media polls.

Koichi Nakano, associate professor of political science at Sophia University, says that despite initial grumbling when the snap election was announced, the LDP appears to be riding high on the prime minister's popularity. A recent Asahi Shimbun survey suggests the party is on track to gain significantly more than the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 8 February lower house election.

If the party does well," Nakano says, "many MPs will feel grateful. Their scandals will be washed clean, and they'll become very obedient.

A political funding corruption scandal that was revealed just over two years ago saw dozens of LDP lawmakers investigated over pocketing millions of dollars in proceeds from political fundraisers. It angered the public so much and cost party its majority in the 2024 election.

The timing of the election has drawn criticism from opposition parties. They argue the snap vote has delayed anti-inflation measures, postponed debate over the fiscal 2026 budget, and placed an additional administrative burden on local municipalities.

Hall says the primary motivation behind the timing was parliamentary arithmetic.

"The main purpose of calling the snap election when she did was to get back a parliamentary majority so that the new budget committee will be chaired by the LDP or a coalition partner," he says, allowing the budget to pass "without opposition scrutiny".

The vote also comes in the depths of winter. Parts of northern Japan have been hit by heavy snow, raising concerns that bad weather could affect turnout.

Last year's miscalculation also looms large over the ruling party. When Shigeru Ishiba called a snap election shortly after taking office, it backfired spectacularly, delivering one of the LDP's worst results in decades and costing the party its Lower House majority.

"When Ishiba called the election, the public was angry," Nakano says.

There were financial scandals hanging over the LDP, and cost-of-living pressures were acute. This time, she has successfully distanced herself from that image.

Still, Nakano calls the strategy high-risk. "She's created popularity by dissociating herself from the party's stagnant image," he says.

But elections are about parties, not just personalities. That's the danger.

Since taking office, Takaichi has been on a diplomatic roll, but she has also managed to infuriate Japan's biggest trading partner, China.

Relations have deteriorated sharply after her comments suggesting Japan could respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan, remarks she has refused to retract.

The dispute escalated rapidly. Both sides lodged formal protests. Japan warned its citizens to stay safe in China, while Beijing urged its citizens to avoid travelling to Japan.

Domestically, the row has strengthened Takaichi's standing.

"She is a hawk… a conservative," says 85-year-old voter Naoaki Yuhara.

Of course, the economy is an important issue for the people, but at my age -especially when I think about my grandchildren's generation - national defence is very important, and she is seriously thinking about it.

But Takaichi's hawkishness on defence worries Haruka, a voter in her 30s.

"I am concerned about the defence issue. We don't know where exactly the money is being spent or how. I do worry that they may spend money on things like nuclear weapons or the use of military forces," she told the BBC.

I worry that it may be happening behind our backs without our knowledge. Perhaps we're heading towards a future where we might have no choice but to engage in some sort of conflict.

Rintaro Nishimura also warns that this hawkish stance could backfire in the long run. "With a mandate, people expect her to be more hawkish on China. But prolonged tension could hurt the economy and that would hurt her approval."

Koichi Nakano warns that public debate about the China spat has all but disappeared. "There is a general taboo in the media… sensible discussions about how to coexist with China can get easily branded as appeasement," he says.

The real economic and security consequences of burning bridges with China are not really being discussed.

Sanae Takaichi is expected to visit Washington shortly after the elections to meet Donald Trump ahead of his summit with China's President Xi Jinping and amid Tokyo's very tense relationship with Beijing.

Japan might get isolated without getting the support from Trump," Nakano warns, "while it doesn't look anywhere near like a possibility that she'll be able to mend ties with Xi Jinping.

While concern over financial scandals appears to have faded, cost-of-living pressures remain front of mind.

The sharp spike in rice prices in mid-2025 shocked households. Though it occurred before Takaichi took office, it continues to shape perceptions of the LDP.

Inflation slowed in late 2025, but wages remain stagnant and the yen has weakened further.

"I used to spend about 10,000 yen ($64; £47) a week on groceries," Kanako Himura says.

Now it's always more. Prices are rising, quantities are shrinking. Even when the price stays the same, you get less.

"Tokyo property prices are too high," says Kento Naka, a 35-year-old manga artist.

Paper books cost about one-and-a-half times more now. Everything else too. But income hasn't caught up at all.

Takaichi has promised public spending, inflation relief and tax cuts, but critics say the details remain vague.

"The reality is the cost of living is probably going to keep going up, and salaries are going to remain low… and that's one of the reasons why Takaichi is calling this early election," Hall said.

She's probably figured out the economy is not going to be an easy fix. If she waits longer, people will start blaming her for the economy, as they blamed previous prime ministers.

Other long-held priorities have also faded from her campaign, including weapons exports, an anti-espionage law and immigration reform. This tactic, observers say, is less about policy and more about keeping her high position in the polls.

Despite a newly formed centrist alliance between the Constitutional Democratic Party and former LDP coalition partner Komeito, polls suggest the opposition remains fragmented.

"The Komeito vote had been propping up the LDP for years," Jeffrey Hall says.

Now the LDP is propping itself up using the popularity of the prime minister.

Rintaro Nishimura says the election has been framed as a choice between certainty and the unknown. "There's not a lot of precedent for an opposition-led government," he says. "That's always in the back of voters' minds."

The far-right Sanseito party has sharpened debate on immigration, but Jeffrey Hall says Takaichi's rise has blunted its momentum.

One of the reasons the LDP picked Takaichi is that she is a hard-line conservative," he says. "They were hoping she would draw nationalists back from Sanseito.

But the prime minister faces a tough act balancing an ageing society reluctant to receive immigrants and an economy that would not sustain without them.

Japan has a major labour shortage. Foreign workers are now vital to many sectors of the economy," he says. "If she doesn't want the economy to get worse, she will continue increasing immigration.

The dark cloud of the economy will hover over whoever takes office. If the prime minister does secure a majority, the stagnant wages, the weak yen and cost of living will be her most immediate and biggest challenges.

There will be at least a brief honeymoon period," Koichi Nakano says. "But the reality of the economy will hit very quickly.

Source: BBC
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