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Will SIR help or hurt the NDA in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections?
Following the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, the total number of electors in Bihar decreased from 7.89 crore to 7.42 crore — approximately 15,000 to 20,000 voters per constituency across the state's 243 Assembly seats. However, with very thin winning margins in many constituencies in the last polls, how effective the SIR will be will only be known on November 14.
November 14, celebrated as Children's Day in India to mark Jawaharlal Nehru's birth anniversary, might also turn out to be a defining day for Bihar's political future. Ironically, whether the Congress will have much to celebrate this Children's Day could depend on the results of the Bihar assembly elections — which are set to be announced the same day.
The polls in Bihar are being fought on a wide range of issues — from unemployment, migration, and development to illegal migration, appeasement politics, and freebies (Read the Six Factors in Bihar Polls). But one new and contentious issue that has taken center stage this year is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls.
How SIR Affected the Electoral Roll
As of June 24, 2025, Bihar had 7.89 crore electors. During the revision process, around 65 lakh electors were removed, and the first draft roll, published on August 1, listed 7.24 crore voters. Later, 3.66 lakh ineligible voters were deleted, while 21.53 lakh eligible electors were added through Form 6 applications.
The final roll, as of September 30, stands at approximately 7.42 crore electors — with Patna alone seeing an increase of 1.63 lakh voters across its 14 Assembly constituencies.
Reports suggest the deletions amount to roughly 15,000–20,000 voters per constituency across Bihar's 243 Assembly seats.
According to Hindustan Times, the Magadh region — which includes Patna and is Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's stronghold — saw the highest voter addition rate, while the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region recorded the highest deletion rate at 7.7%. The Seemanchal region comprises of Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar, and Araria. It has an average Muslim population of 48%, and has traditionally supported the RJD–Congress Mahagathbandhan.
The Politics Behind SIR
The large-scale deletion of names quickly turned into a major campaign issue, with the opposition Mahagathbandhan repeatedly attacking the government.
Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi dubbed it “Vote Chori,” while the Congress accused the Election Commission of targeting “SC, ST, OBC, minority communities, and poor people” through the exercise.
Opposition protests against SIR, including Rahul Gandhi's ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra', ensured that Bihar's poll campaign began unusually early this year.
A booth-level officer told Times of India, “The sharp divisions over SIR created a high level of contestation, generating public interest and encouraging electors to vote.”
Interestingly, the difference between Bihar's Phase 1 turnout and the 2024 Lok Sabha turnout — 8.4 percentage points — nearly matches the 8.7% deletions from the June 2025 roll. While it's hard to establish direct causation, SIR may have played a role in mobilizing voters.
According to New Indian Express, there was also a high turnout of Muslim women voters, attributed to the SIR process, with many reportedly returning to Bihar to ensure their names were on the rolls.
The first phase recorded a 65% voter turnout, which could benefit either side.
Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan claimed this reflected a pro-incumbency wave. “The NDA will get a huge mandate, and the high voter turnout has proven it. In Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, high turnouts led to governments being re-elected. Sheila Dikshit also became Delhi CM thrice with strong voter participation," he told ANI.
However, the Mahagathbandhan countered that the record turnout was a sign of public anger against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's government.
Prashant Kishor (PK), now leading the Jan Suraaj Party, echoed that sentiment. He told ANI, “The highest polling in the last 30 years indicates that change is coming to Bihar. A new system will be established on November 14.”
What History Suggests
In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, the BJP came to power with a 61.11% turnout, higher than 59.04% turnout in the previous election that had brought the Samajwadi Party to power. In 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections also higher voter turnout brought Congress to power.
In its analysis, India Today said in eight elections where turnout increased, the ruling party retained power only once (in 1962). Conversely, in some cases where turnout fell, incumbents still managed to win.
So, higher turnout though generally pointed towards a regime change, there is no guarantee it would do so this time also.
In 2020 polls, the margin of victory 52 of Bihar's 243 constituencies was less than 5,000 votes. In 10 seats — including Barbigha, Ramgarh, Matiani, Bhoray, Dehri, Bachwara, Chakai, Kurhani, Hilsa, and Bakhri — the difference was under 500 votes. With such narrow margins, even minor shifts caused by the SIR exercise could decisively tilt the balance — one way or the other.
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Source: EconomicTimes
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