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Why Turmoil In Iran Could Narrow India’s Options And Open Doors For Pak, China
Why Turmoil In Iran Could Narrow India’s Options And Open Doors For Pakistan And China
Political instability in Iran threatens India's strategic access to Central Asia, weakens its regional influence, and puts key investments like Chabahar Port at risk. The same turmoil could strengthen Pakistan's position and deepen China's footprint in West Asia.
As Iran's clerical leadership grapples with protests driven by economic strain and public fatigue, New Delhi is watching with growing concern. For India, Iran is not just another West Asian state; it is a strategic gateway, a diplomatic counterweight, and a rare corridor to regions otherwise blocked by Pakistan. Any serious weakening of the Iranian state could upset decades of careful Indian planning, while quietly strengthening the hands of Pakistan and China.
India and Iran share deep historical and strategic ties shaped by geography and mutual interests. With Pakistan denying India overland access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, Iran has long served as New Delhi's only viable western route. Tehran's Shia leadership has also acted as a counterbalance to Pakistan's regional ambitions, fitting neatly into India's broader West Asia strategy.
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A destabilised Iran, however, could sharply reduce India's room for manoeuvre at a time when its regional space is already under pressure, from political change in Bangladesh, persistent security threats from Pakistan, China's expanding footprint, and unpredictable US policies under Donald Trump.
1. Chabahar Port And Regional Access
At the heart of India's engagement with Iran lies the Chabahar Port. Designed to provide India with direct access to Iran's coast, the port links New Delhi to Afghanistan and Central Asia through road and rail networks, thereby bypassing Pakistan.
But infrastructure alone is not enough. Connectivity corridors depend on political stability, security guarantees and long-term coordination, all of which are at risk if Iran enters a prolonged period of upheaval.
Speaking to The Times of India, Rajan Kumar, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, warned, “In a post-Khamenei power struggle, Chabahar risks becoming a hostage to instability rather than a strategic asset.”
India has already invested over $1 billion in Chabahar and related projects, even as it delayed or reshaped parts of its involvement to comply with US sanctions. Any regime change could place those investments and public funds in jeopardy.
2. Pakistan's Quiet Advantage
Despite being a Muslim-majority country, Iran has historically kept Pakistan's influence in check. Tehran's Shia leadership has been openly critical of Sunni extremist groups operating from Pakistan that promote anti-India narratives and target Indian interests.
This alignment proved vital in the 1990s and early 2000s, when Pakistan-backed Taliban forces sought “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. India and Iran worked together to support anti-Taliban groups, limiting Islamabad's ability to dominate Afghanistan's political future. Tehran also backed New Delhi when Pakistan tried to mobilise international pressure over Kashmir in the mid-1990s.
If Iran weakens internally, that counterweight fades, leaving Pakistan better placed to expand its regional influence.
3. Trade And Economic Stakes
India is currently Iran's eighth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued between $1.3 and $1.7 billion over the past year. While modest compared with Iran's trade with China, the relationship still carries strategic weight for New Delhi, particularly given the investments tied to connectivity projects.
Political uncertainty in Tehran could disrupt trade flows and complicate India's already delicate balancing act under Western sanctions.
4. China Waiting In Wings
Iran's growing dependence on China is already clear. The two countries signed a 25-year strategic cooperation pact in 2021, and Beijing has since become Tehran's largest trading partner. In 2025 alone, China imported more than $14.5 billion worth of Iranian goods, much of it discounted oil.
With sanctions choking Iran's economy, Beijing has stepped in to fund infrastructure and energy projects. India's presence at Chabahar offers a limited counterbalance to this trend.
If instability deepens, even a new Iranian leadership is likely to lean more heavily on China for investment and security. According to a Times of India report, Iranian officials are already discussing Chinese-funded power plants and port projects in Khuzestan, a sign of Beijing's growing reach.
Former foreign secretary and ambassador Nirupama Menon Rao has urged restraint and readiness rather than public positioning.
Writing on X, Rao said, “It should keep a certain distance, because the situation in Iran has reached a point where outside actors cannot control the ramifications, nor reliably shape the outcome. The first duty is protection: the interests of Indian citizens in Iran, and in the wider region, must be safeguarded through strong consular readiness and contingency planning.”
She stressed the need for constant assessment rather than quick judgments.
“What matters is not commentary but preparedness: understanding where this could go, what spillovers are most likely, and which channels of communication must remain open.”
Rao also warned that instability in Iran would not remain confined within its borders.
“Chaos in West Asia can travel fast through energy markets, shipping routes, diaspora vulnerabilities, and the wider ecology of militancy and criminal networks. South Asia is not insulated from that.”
For India, the stakes in Iran go far beyond diplomacy. Prolonged instability could weaken a key regional partner, undermine a critical trade route, and tilt the balance further in favour of Pakistan and China. New Delhi's challenge now is to stay engaged without overreaching, steady, cautious, and ready for multiple outcomes in a region where shocks rarely remain local.
Source: ZeeNews
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