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Why India could see less rain and more heat due to this weather cycle
El Nino explained: Why India could see less rain and more heat in 2026 due to this weather cycle
El Nino explained: Why India could see less rain and more heat in 2026 due to this weather cycle
Ocean temperatures in the Pacific are reportedly rising again, which increases the chance of El Nino conditions developing between May and July.
Published on: Apr 25, 2026 2:06 PM IST By Anita Goswami Share via Copy link India could face a difficult weather year in 2026 as global climate signals point to the possible return of El Nino, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). India may see tough weather conditions this year. (REUTERS) Early warnings suggest that ocean temperatures in the Pacific are rising again, which increases the chance of El Nino conditions developing between May and July. Climate agencies also say the event could strengthen later in the year, raising concerns about heat, rainfall, and water systems across regions.What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This change may sound small, but it disrupts wind and rainfall patterns across the world. It is part of a larger cycle called ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation), which alternates between El Nino (warm phase), La Nina (cool phase) and Neutral phase.WMO’s warning
The World Meteorological Organisation says conditions are currently neutral, but models are now pointing towards a transition into El Nino in the coming months. “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, as per news agency ANI. He added, “Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” In simple terms, scientists are increasingly confident El Nino will form, but exact strength is still being tracked.How El Nino affects global weather
When El Nino develops, it changes how heat and moisture move across the planet. This leads to large-scale weather shifts such as: Drier conditions in Australia and Indonesia. Rainier conditions in parts of South America and Africa. Higher global average temperatures. Changes in cyclone and hurricane activity. It does not affect every region in the same way, but it increases weather extremes worldwide. WMO also says that during May-July 2026, many regions are likely to see above-normal temperatures, especially in North America, Europe, and parts of Africa. WMO says El Nino is a natural cycle, but its impacts are becoming more severe in a warming world. The weather body says that climate change does not increase how often El Nino happens, but it can intensify its effects because warmer oceans and air hold more energy and moisture. This can lead to stronger heatwaves and heavier rainfall events. Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Nino combined with long-term warming trends.El Nino’s impact for India
India is particularly sensitive to El Nino because it directly affects the monsoon system. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated that the 2026 southwest monsoon may be below normal, around 92% of the long-period average. In India, El Nino years are often linked with: Weaker monsoon rainfall. Uneven distribution of rain. Longer dry spells between showers. Stress on agriculture and rural incomes. Since a large part of India’s farming depends on monsoon rain, even a small drop in rainfall can have a big economic impact.What El Nino means for India in 2026
If current forecasts hold true, India may face a mix of risks, including weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures and heat stress, water shortages in some areas, lower farm output, and pressure on food prices and rural incomes.Himalayan snow another cause of concern
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development reports that snow cover in the Hindu Kush Himalaya is 27.8% below the long-term average, the lowest in records for four consecutive years. This region supplies water to major rivers like the Ganga, Indus, and Brahmaputra. Snow levels are important because they act as natural water storage. When snow melts slowly, it supports rivers during dry months. Lower snow means reduced river flow in summer, higher risk of drought in downstream regions, pressure on drinking water and irrigation systems. (With inputs from Jayashree Nandi and news agency ANI.) ABOUT THE AUTHOR Anita Goswami Anita Goswami is a Senior Content Producer at Hindustan Times, where she primarily covers Indian and international news. With four years of industry experience, she has led coverage of Indian General elections, Assembly elections, and national polls in the United States, Canada, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Her reporting covers global wars and major events, including Operation Sindoor, Sheikh Hasina's ouster and the Mahakumbh Mela. She verifies facts and uses clear sources to ensure accurate reporting. As former Chief Copy Editor at Storytailors, she managed teams to produce top-quality content for networks like NDTV, Profit, CNBC-TV18, Upstox and News18. Her work is featured in NDTV, Meaww, and Global Pulse. Throughout her tenure, Anita has collaborated with and been mentored by top industry experts. When not reading, Anita can be found outdoors or at a bakery. Fields of interest: Indian political history, international elections, historical policy analysis, global conflicts, cultural events, Formula 1, art, media ethics and reporting on socio-political change over time.Read More World Meteorological Organisation Climate Change Weather Check India news real-time updates, latest news from India and UK Board Result 2026 News/India News/El Nino Explained: Why India Could See Less Rain And More Heat In 2026 Due To This Weather Cycle See LessIndia could face a difficult weather year in 2026 as global climate signals point to the possible return of El Nino, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
Early warnings suggest that ocean temperatures in the Pacific are rising again, which increases the chance of El Nino conditions developing between May and July. Climate agencies also say the event could strengthen later in the year, raising concerns about heat, rainfall, and water systems across regions.
It is part of a larger cycle called ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation), which alternates between El Nino (warm phase), La Nina (cool phase) and Neutral phase.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, as per news agency ANI.
He added, “Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,”
In simple terms, scientists are increasingly confident El Nino will form, but exact strength is still being tracked.
WMO also says that during May-July 2026, many regions are likely to see above-normal temperatures, especially in North America, Europe, and parts of Africa.
WMO says El Nino is a natural cycle, but its impacts are becoming more severe in a warming world. The weather body says that climate change does not increase how often El Nino happens, but it can intensify its effects because warmer oceans and air hold more energy and moisture. This can lead to stronger heatwaves and heavier rainfall events.
Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Nino combined with long-term warming trends.
In India, El Nino years are often linked with:
This region supplies water to major rivers like the Ganga, Indus, and Brahmaputra. Snow levels are important because they act as natural water storage. When snow melts slowly, it supports rivers during dry months. Lower snow means reduced river flow in summer, higher risk of drought in downstream regions, pressure on drinking water and irrigation systems.
(With inputs from Jayashree Nandi and news agency ANI.)
Source: HindustanTimes
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