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Who are the frontrunners for the top Fed job?
Who are the frontrunners for the top Fed job?
The high-stakes search for a new leader of the US central bank is drawing to a close.
US President Donald Trump is expected to name someone in the coming weeks to replace Jerome Powell, whose term as Federal Reserve chairman will end in May.
That person will step into the role at a tricky moment.
The bank is contending with both political pressure and internal disagreement about how it should set interest rates in the months ahead.
Credibility concerns could make the job even harder. Trump has made clear he wants lower borrowing costs and put unusual pressure on the Fed, raising questions about whether whoever wins the post will act independently.
Trump's nominee would then go to the Senate for confirmation. Here's what to know about the frontrunners.
Kevin Hassett, a long-time conservative economist and key Trump economic adviser, is seen as a top contender to succeed Powell.
A Trump loyalist, Hassett, 63, served as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term and now leads the National Economic Council.
His odds of clinching the role have dropped since early December, but Wall Street traders still deem him the most likely choice.
Hassett has been a stalwart defender of Trump's economic policies, downplaying data showing signs of weakness in the US economy and repeating allegations of bias at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
His allegiance to the president has drawn questions from analysts about whether he would act independently at the Fed and how much sway he would have with other members of the board.
In a research note, Deutsche Bank economists wrote that Hassett might struggle, at least initially, to convince other policymakers to put aside concerns about inflation and cut rates meaningfully.
"Other officials might be sceptical of forward-looking arguments that rely heavily on the administration's policies bringing inflation closer to target," they wrote.
Even some within the Trump administration have reportedly questioned whether Hassett has the skills needed to effectively take the helm of the central bank.
Hassett addressed those questions in a CNBC interview this month, saying that the Fed's independence was "really, really important", while reiterating that interest rates still had room to fall.
"The way you've got to drive interest-rate movements is with consensus based on the facts and the data," he said.
Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, has re-emerged in recent weeks as another potential pick.
The 55 year-old economist, a fellow at the right-leaning Hoover Institution who serves on the board of UPS, had also been considered for Fed chair during Trump's first term. He briefly overtook Hassett in prediction markets this month before falling back to second place.
"I think the two Kevins are great," Trump told the Wall Street Journal this month.
Warsh has been an outspoken Fed critic, lambasting everything from the central bank's heavy reliance on data to its use of assets on its balance sheet. He has escalated his rhetoric since emerging as a contender for the top Fed job this year, calling for "regime change".
Warsh had a relatively "hawkish" reputation as Fed governor, meaning that he tended to favour higher interest rates and focused on concerns about inflation.
But he is now seen as a voice that would support lower rates in the near term. He has argued that the Fed should shrink its balance sheet in order to bring down short-term interest rates, though some have questioned that logic.
He thinks you have to lower interest rates," Trump told the Journal. "And so does everybody else that I've talked to.
Warsh also has close family connections to Trump's orbit. His father-in-law, billionaire businessman Ronald Lauder, is a longtime Trump donor and ally.
Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, recently met with Trump for an interview, boosting his chances for the job in prediction markets.
He was nominated to the Fed's board by Trump in 2020 and has recently stressed that the Fed has room to lower interest rates even further.
Waller, 66, lacks the personal ties that could help propel Hassett and Warsh to the top of Trump's list. Wall Street, however, has looked favourably upon his relative distance from the White House.
Trump, when asked about Waller following their meeting, called him "great", adding that "he's a man who's been there a long time".
While the two Kevins remain the favourites, Waller is emerging as "the more sensible choice", said Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital.
He noted that choosing Waller could open up two spots on the Fed board for Trump to fill next year, since Fed governor Stephen Miran's term is set to end.
It remains to be seen who will satisfy the president. Other names floated include BlackRock executive Rick Reider and even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
In the end, no matter who emerges the winner from this contest, it may be Wall Street that serves as final judge of their success.
Source: BBC
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