U.S., Israel wanted quick win, but they failed: Mohammad Marandi

U.S., Israel wanted quick win, but they failed: Mohammad Marandi Premium

Almost two weeks after the U.S. and Israel started the war on Iran, the conflict has spread across the region. Iran retaliated by attacking Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, American assets in the region as well as Israel. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical international maritime checkpoint, remains effectively shut, sending fuel prices through the roof.

“The U.S. and Israel miscalculated big time,” Mohammad Marandi, professor of English literature and orientalism at Tehran University, told The Hindu in an interview. He said the Arab countries in the Gulf are not neutral players as they are hosting American bases. “As time goes on, the price of oil is going to go up. And the world knows that this is not Iran’s fault. This is the fault of the Trump regime and Netanyahu,” he added. Edited excerpts:

What is the status of the war now, and how do you assess Iran’s response?

I think it’s pretty clear that the U.S. and the Israeli regime have failed. They were hoping for a quick win. And we knew that this would not be the case. They miscalculated big time. Even Trump admitted this when he said he did not expect that Iran would attack U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf.

It either indicates that he is very ignorant or it indicates that the people around him knew, but they didn’t tell him because they’re Israeli firsters. And for Israeli firsters, the only thing that’s important is the Israeli regime. So we are where we are. Iran is striking U.S. assets across the Persian Gulf region. And, of course, it’s striking the Israeli regime regularly. There are estimates about Iranian missiles and drones and how many of there exist; they were, of course, wrong. Iran’s drone and missile factories are underground. They are producing drones and missiles as we speak.

The longer the war lasts, the worse it is going to be for them. That doesn’t mean that we’re not paying a price. Just before we spoke, they bombed Tehran and they are taking their revenge on ordinary Iranians because they failed against the military.

Marco Rubio has listed out three objectives of the war: destroy Iran’s missiles, destroy Iran’s missile production facilities, and destroy Iran’s navy. If the war continues, what kind of impact these sustained U.S.-Israeli attacks will have on Iran’s capabilities?

The bulk of Iran’s naval forces are in underground bases. The speedboats, which form the bulk of Iran’s naval capabilities, and which fire missiles are all well protected, just like the underground drone and missile bases. And Iran has not used them yet. The naval capabilities that can go out immediately, swiftly, and strike targets across the Persian Gulf and in the Indian Ocean, those are well hidden. Iran is playing the long game. We are planning a war that could go into next year and after the U.S. midterm elections. This was the Iranian planning from the beginning. And so neither of these three objectives that you mentioned have been met by any means. But more importantly, there were other objectives. They just silently put those aside. Regime change and so on and so forth. It’s all failed. All they’re doing is killing more innocent people.

The U.S. has destroyed its soft power image over Gaza. And now, it is losing on the battlefield. Economically, it is also losing because the assets that the U.S. has in the Persian Gulf region are enormous. They are in the many trillions of dollars. A single missile, when it strikes Dubai, the whole of Dubai diminishes in value. How do you calculate that in numbers? As time goes on, the price of oil is going to go up. And the world knows that this is not Iran’s fault. This is the fault of the Trump regime and Netanyahu.

But the Iranian retaliation is also having an impact on Iran’s ties with its neighbouring countries. What is your take on that?

Well, the countries that it has an impact on mainly are in the Persian Gulf. And these are tiny Arab family dictatorships. And they are beginning to recognise that U.S. bases are a liability. They’re recognising that they cannot have their cake and eat it too. They cannot have U.S. bases in their territory to be used to bomb Iran and then call themselves neutral. So they are being punished for their own policies. And they will continue to be punished. The Persian Gulf will never be like it was before. After this war is over, Iran will demand full compensation. And it will not allow these countries to ever again be used as platforms to threaten Iran.

Iran did not start this war. Iran did not want this war. Iran wanted to carry on with its business, its economic ties, and allow others to do the same. But these regimes allowed the U.S. to conspire against Iran. They facilitated it. They gave them bases, they gave them the airspace, even missiles were fired from their territory, from Kuwait, from Bahrain, from the Emirates, and probably from Qatar and Saudi Arabia too. So they can’t, they can’t get away with that. This is going to be a painful war. During the 12-day war (June 2025), they launched a blitzkrieg attack. And they were the ones who were begging for a ceasefire, as we all know. And this time around, it’s far worse. Iran is hitting the Israeli regime harder than before.

Do you think it was a mistake that Iran agreed to a ceasefire in June 2025?

No, back then, the Iranians had two considerations. One is that they did teach the Israeli regime a lesson. That’s why the Israeli regime was seeking a ceasefire. They didn’t accept the ceasefire right away. They continued hitting for three days roughly, and then accepted a halt in hostilities. But the Iranians knew that ultimately this is going to be a war that includes the U.S. And if that war had continued, the U.S. would have entered the fray. So over the last eight months, they’ve been making major changes with regards to their launching capabilities, with regards to protecting their factories, their missile and drone factories.

The Israeli regime is not a threat to Iran. Iran can easily defeat it. For Iran, the issue is the U.S. The U.S. is the superpower. So over the last eight months, Iran has been preparing itself for this war. Iran knew it was inevitable.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is fighting the Israelis. In Iraq, Iran’s allies are involved in the fight. But Houthis are not visible. Where are the Houthis?

Iran and its allies are controlling the pace of escalation. In Iraq, Iran’s allies can do much more than what we’re seeing right now. Even in Syria, Iran’s allies can do a lot more. There’s no reason for Iran to go all out on day one. If Iran wanted to do that, Iran could have destroyed all the tankers in the Persian Gulf; it could have destroyed all the oil and gas installations, and there would be no more oil and gas from the Persian Gulf for the next few years, and that would destroy the global economy. It would change the lives of everyone across the globe. Iran doesn’t want that. Iran wants this war to be managed.

Look at the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has effectively shut it. The Americans can do nothing about it. Iran can go much further than that. They can just destroy the tankers that are stuck. But Iran doesn’t want destruction. The side that has brought about this crisis is the U.S., the Israeli regime, and the Zionist lobby. They are the ones who are putting the Indian economy at risk, the Chinese economy at risk, the U.S. economy at risk, the global economy at risk for the sake of the Israeli regime. Because the Israeli regime does not care about any entity but itself. But on the other hand, we do not want the global economy to collapse. So this escalation is managed. When the time comes, Iran’s allies in Yemen will be more active. Iran’s allies in Iraq will be more active. Iran itself will be more active.

Iran has so far maintained that it would not talk to the U.S. But if the war continues, everybody is going to suffer, economically. What’s the endgame scenario you have in your mind?

Iran wants the global economy to function normally. This is not a war that we started. This is an unprovoked war of aggression where they murdered our leaders and they murdered citizens, including many children, and they never showed remorse for even murdering little girls. This war has to end in a way Iran doesn’t feel threatened six months down the road. We already negotiated with the Americans twice. And as we were negotiating, they carried out an attack. They initiated war. Eight, nine months ago, and now. So negotiating with them is useless because they’ll say one thing and then the next day they’ll do something.

Iran knows that the U.S. is in deep trouble. They’re running out of ammunition. And the war is very costly, very costly, at multiple levels. Of course. the price of energy is increasing across the world. And people will blame the U.S. for this. So what Iran wants is that while it’s putting pressure on the U.S., it wants the region to recognise that it can no longer be used as a platform for aggression against Iran.

It’s like a neighbour of India giving a base to a third party; let’s say they give bases to the U.S., and the U.S. starts striking India from those bases. And then those countries or that country tells the Indian government that we’re neutral. You can’t be neutral. That’s your country. Iran wants to make sure that, from now on, these regimes can no longer be complicit in aggression against Iran, and that the U.S. can no longer be in a position to threaten Iran. And Iran must be fully compensated, and its rights as a sovereign, independent country, to have a peaceful nuclear programme, must all be respected. These are the minimal demands.

There was a fatwa in Iran issued by the former Supreme Leader against the nuclear weapons. And Iran always maintained that its nuclear programme was for peaceful purposes. Iran has faced two attacks in the last eight months. Do you think Iran’s nuclear posture was a strategic mistake?

Before the revolution, the U.S. had taken huge amounts of money from Iran to develop a nuclear programme here. Iran paid a lot of money to develop a nuclear programme. And the Americans and the Europeans were behind it, the Germans in particular. And the French. After the revolution, Iran wanted to continue that. We know from the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran was producing a nuclear weapon. They should be very thankful that Iran has this fatwa. And there’s a reason for this fatwa. It’s an ugly weapon. And Iran did the same when the West gave Saddam Hussein chemical weapons [during the Iran-Iraq war]. Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, back then, who passed away in 1989, did not allow the Iranians to make their own chemical weapons.

With regards to nuclear weapons, Iran has decided not to do so for moral reasons, but also because if Iran produces nuclear weapons and all these tiny Arab family dictatorships, which are not very stable, who knows what’s going to happen in the months ahead in these Arab family dictatorships or in the caucuses.

If you have nuclear weapons, a lot of other countries want nuclear weapons too, and that is destabilising. So there are reasons behind this, but the Iranians have said that if there is an existential threat to Iran, then, Iran’s nuclear posture will change. The U.S. is not going to win [this war]. This is going to be a strategic defeat for them. And the only people to blame are the Zionists, the Israeli regime, and the U.S.

Does the fatwa still stand?

The fatwa is still there. I don’t think that any new decision has been made. The Iranians have already said that the only thing that could change Iran’s policy is an existential threat to the nation. And of course, Iran is winning this war. The Americans and Israelis are not winning, they’re losing. There’s no doubt about it. And they may go crazy because they’re losing, and that’s why they’re bombing people. But if there is an existential threat, then Iran’s nuclear posture would change. So for the time being, I see continuity with regards to Iran’s foreign policy, its internal policy, and its nuclear policy.

Published - March 13, 2026 01:01 pm IST

USA / Israel / war / unrest, conflicts and war / Iran / Israel-US strikes on Iran / World

Source: TheHindu
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