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Budget 2026: Top five expectations of the Indian stock market
Budget 2026: Fiscal consolidation to capex growth — top five expectations of the Indian stock market
Union Budget 2026: The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is all set to present the ninth budget for the financial year 2026-27 in the parliament on Sunday, February 1.
Market expectations remain subdued, as investors are largely prioritising policy stability over bold, headline-making reforms.
Since the previous Union Budget, the global environment has deteriorated sharply, driven by a rise in protectionist measures following US President Donald Trump's announcement of tariffs on multiple countries, including a steep 50% hike on India. This development has unsettled a global order that had largely held steady for decades.
Here are the top five expectations from the Union Budget 2026 -
Fiscal consolidation approach to be largely maintained
According to Choice Institutional Equities report, the government has been steadfast on the path of fiscal consolidation, with the fiscal deficit easing from Covid induced high of 9.2% to 4.4% for FY26 (expected).“We believe that government will largely maintain its fiscal rectitude and do not expect major deviation from this path. However, given that FY27 will mark a transition to debt/GDP as a targeted fiscal marker and that overall consumption is yet to recover fully and sentiment is improving unevenly, a scenario of pragmatic, minor fiscal stretch is not completely ruled out,” the firm said.
Greater focus on capex
As the FY26 Union Budget focused more on boosting middle-class consumption—primarily through personal income tax relief of about ₹1 trillion—and its full impact is yet to materialise, the brokerage firm expects the Union Budget FY27 to adopt a more targeted approach to supporting consumption.“The budget is likely to focus more on capital expenditure, especially in sectors deemed to be strategically important owing to prevailing geopolitical compulsions. We expect that greater emphasis will be placed on sectors like defense, critical minerals, power, electronics, infra and higher growth in affordable housing,” it said.
GST reforms
Although recent tax cuts, relief measures for individual taxpayers, and GST rate rationalisation have not yet had a meaningful impact, analysts believe the forthcoming budget will progressively move toward a more balanced growth approach—backing both capital spending and consumption while preserving fiscal discipline.“GST rejig and higher tax slabs have already been actioned by the government in FY25. However, we believe the government will continue to support consumption through incentives and subsidies,” the brokerage firm added.
Consumption support
As the impact of last year's ₹1 lakh crore personal income tax relief continues to play out, analysts do not anticipate any broad-based push to boost consumption.Motilal Oswal believes that any support for consumption is likely to be targeted rather than widespread. That said, targeted measures focused on consumer durables or housing could help improve sentiment in segments of the market under pressure.
Increase budget allocation in sectors like defence and railways
Market analysts are expecting at least 20% YoY spending increase in the defence sector, driven by geopolitical tensions, force modernisation, and indigenisation policy.“ Capex-heavy allocation mix continues, reinforcing structural shift from imports to domestic mfg. of long-cycle platforms. Platform finalisation phase: Tejas Mk-2, QRSAM and MRSAM programs likely to receive execution approvals, providing multi-year revenue visibility. Spend diversification towards systems, sub-systems and lifecycle components (avionics, sensors, EW, MRO & upgrades) to reduce episodic revenue dependence,” the firm said.
Meanwhile, the brokerage firm further anticipates railways to witness a modest increase in allocation with continued focus on easing congestion, expanding capacity (new lines, track doubling) and freight corridor development.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: LiveMint
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