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The stats that say Haaland will run away with Golden Boot
With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.
While it is not his best start to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it still puts him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.
The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.
Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so early.
First, the number of goals he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of chances he is getting. And second, the slow start his usual rivals for the prize have made.
A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the number and quality of chances he has had.
It is not a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.
And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from normal play, the Norway forward is getting so many more good opportunities to score than anyone else.
Indeed, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than anyone else in the league, he would still have scored more than twice as many goals as everyone else.
That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of chances that players have had in the top flight so far.
Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this season, 12 more than any other player.
That is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this point in the last two seasons (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in 2024-25).
What is, however, unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this season. His shots have had a xG value of 0.27 on average.
What that figure means is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a rate of 27%.
Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to score on average - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.
Haaland's xG of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the start of last season.
In short, the chances he has had in 2025-26 have been notably easier to score from in a reorganised City team than those at the beginning of last season.
Starting a season so strongly is, as mentioned above, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last season he had scored 10 goals - four more than anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.
But it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, seven more than the Manchester City striker.
In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number of goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this stage last season.
In fact this has been the quietest start to a Premier League season the Egypt forward has made.
It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players put together so far.
Whether because of injuries - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.
While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?
That race is far more competitive at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have also started in great form, with 11 and nine goals respectively.
The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the three without yet taking any penalties makes him the favourite.
But since Kane and Mbappe are two of the best finishers in European football in terms of overperforming their xG, the race is certainly on.
Source: BBC
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