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Tense Fed is set to lead global peers with interest-rate hold
Global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are expected to hold interest rates steady amid heightened global uncertainty and political pressure. Despite calls for lower borrowing costs, policymakers are prioritizing economic stability. Meanwhile, some African central banks may consider easing rates due to different economic cycles.
The Federal Reserve and three of the central banks that just backed its embattled chair are poised to keep interest rates unchanged at an edgy moment for global policymakers.
Officials in Washington are widely expected to defy US President Donald Trump's calls for lower borrowing costs on Wednesday at the end of their two-day meeting. Peers in Brazil, Canada, and Sweden may also retain current settings.
Bloomberg Those latter three were among more than a dozen, including the Bank of England and European Central Bank, whose chiefs spoke out in “full solidarity” with Chair Jerome Powell, backing independence at a time when the administration in Washington is dialing up the pressure on him and his colleagues.
Aside from Trump's frequent complaints at its unwillingness to slash interest rates, the Fed now faces grand jury subpoenas threatening criminal indictments, while the Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday on whether the president can fire Governor Lisa Cook.
Beyond that melodrama, every central bank is acting against a tense global backdrop, evidenced by the recent market rout in Japan, lingering investor concern over Trump's designs on Greenland, and his incessant threats of further trade disruption.
“We are in a more shock-prone world,” Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, said Friday at the closing session of the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We're not in Kansas any more.”
While policymakers are focused on the potential growth risks posed by tariffs, they're also watchful for possible inflation pressures in the current environment.
As many as 18 central banks globally are on the calendar for decisions in the coming week. In contrast to the Fed, counterparts in Africa, confronting a different stage in the economic cycle, may unveil a wave of easing.
Elsewhere, inflation data from Australia to Brazil and Japan, Chinese industrial profits and gross domestic product in the euro region will be among the highlights.
US and Canada
Fed officials are expected to hold rates steady after three straight cuts at the end of 2025. Powell is likely to telegraph his view that policy is well-positioned for now, but hold off from signaling much about where rates are headed. That will buy officials time to see the impact of previous reductions.Recent data showing that the US unemployment rate declined in December while inflation holds above the Fed's target may work to placate hawks and doves alike, potentially garnering more support for a pause in the easing cycle.
Powell's press conference will be the first since he disclosed Justice Department subpoenas affecting the Fed, and since a Supreme Court hearing regarding Cook's battle to keep her job. Still, expectations are low that he'll share much more on either of those fronts.
The week's data calendar includes figures out Friday on the December producer price index. Economists expect a modest acceleration in the gauge of wholesale costs from a month earlier.
Other upcoming reports include durable goods orders and the trade deficit for November, as well as January consumer confidence.
Bank of Canada Policy to Remain Accommodative in 2026
Turning north, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, with the monetary policy report set to emphasize slower growth and heightened uncertainty tied to this year's review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.Traders in overnight swaps see the central bank staying on the sidelines for most of 2026, after policymakers said the current rate is at “about the right level” to support the economy without reigniting inflation.
Statistics Canada will release November GDP by industry along with a flash estimate for December, likely pointing to weak fourth‑quarter output. November trade data may show a further drop in the share of exports to the US.
Asia
Australia will be a focus when it releases a blast of inflation data ahead of the Reserve Bank's Feb. 3 rate decision. The figures, due on Wednesday, are expected to show that consumer price gains accelerated to 3.6% year over year in the fourth quarter.Coming on the heels of strong jobs data, the inflation report will likely underpin the RBA's hawkish bias and spur speculation over a potential rate increase next month.
Japan also publishes inflation data. Friday's report for Tokyo, a leading indicator for national trends, is forecast to show that the main gauge, excluding fresh food, slowed to 2.2%.
Bloomberg However, an index that removes distortions from energy subsidies is expected to hold steady at 2.6%, demonstrating that underlying price pressure remains robust and keeping the Bank of Japan on track for more increases to borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, speculation has mounted that Japanese authorities may be preparing to enter foreign-exchange markets in a bid to halt the yen's slide, possibly with the rare assistance of the US.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Sunday sent a fresh warning to financial markets amid a weakening yen and surging bond yields, saying the government will be ready to take action.
“It is not for me as a prime minister to comment on matters that should be determined by the market, but we will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements,” she said during a television debate among party leaders.
Bloomberg Fourth-quarter GDP data is scheduled from the Philippines, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Growth is estimated to have sped up to 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the Philippines, while Taiwan's year-on-year advance is seen accelerating to 8.75%.
China publishes industrial profits data on Tuesday that may offer fresh evidence of the pressures mounting for manufacturers as weak demand squeezes corporate margins for exporters and domestic-oriented industries alike.
December trade data is on tap from the Philippines, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Thailand, while Japan and New Zealand will release consumer confidence reports. New Zealand also release a gauge of business sentiment for January after the reading jumped in December to the highest in 30 years.
On the policy front, Pakistan's central bank is expected to cut its SBP rate to 10% on Monday, while authorities in Sri Lanka are seen holding settings steady on Wednesday.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
In the euro area, reports will focus on momentum in the economy. Germany's Ifo survey on Monday may be closely watched given that the sentiment index hasn't really matched recent buoyancy in industrial data that may reflect the government's defense and infrastructure stimulus.The region's first glimpse of GDP in the fourth quarter will arrive on Friday. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict some sort of expansion after Germany's sketchy data already pointed to unexpectedly strong growth. France, Italy and Spain are all predicted to have shown increases in output.
Bloomberg Spain and Germany will also release price data on Friday in advance of wider regional numbers due the following week. Economists anticipate inflation slowed in January to 2.4% in Spain — the weakest level in seven months — while it likely held at 2% in Germany.
Few ECB officials are scheduled to speak, and on Thursday a blackout period starts before their first decision of the year, on Feb. 5. The BOE is also entering a quiet period in advance of its outcome the same day. Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
Source: EconomicTimes
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