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Strait Of Hormuz Tensions: Can Iran Disrupt Global Oil Markets Amid Protests?

EXPLAINED | Strait Of Hormuz Tensions: Can Iran Disrupt Global Oil Markets Amid Protests?
Amid widespread protests, Iran could temporarily disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz using mines, missiles, or drones, threatening global oil supplies. While a full blockade is unlikely due to US naval power, even short-term disruptions could spike oil prices and unsettle markets worldwide.
As widespread protests sweep Iran, the world is watching the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but crucial waterway through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil flows. With Tehran blaming the US and Israel for unrest and threatening retaliation, analysts warn that even temporary disruptions here could send oil prices soaring and trigger global economic instability.
The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometre-wide passage between Iran and Oman, links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Despite its narrow width, it is one of the planet's most vital maritime chokepoints. In 2025, around 13 million barrels of crude oil per day, nearly one-third of global seaborne flows, passed through the strait, along with substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
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Major oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the UAE, rely heavily on this route to ship energy to global markets. Countries such as China, Japan, India and South Korea, which consume roughly 80% of these shipments, have economic security closely tied to the strait's stability.
While a full-scale blockade is unlikely, experts say Iran can significantly disrupt shipping. Daniel E Mouton of the Atlantic Council notes that Iran possesses 5,000-6,000 naval mines and a fleet of 25 submarines capable of threatening commercial traffic quickly.
Iran also has an extensive coastal defence network, including Khalij-e Fars ballistic missiles, Hormuz 1 and 2 missiles, and Noor cruise missiles, as well as thousands of UAVs, such as Shaheed-class drones, previously deployed by Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
“While completely shutting the strait may be beyond Iran's reach, it certainly can halt or slow commercial traffic temporarily,” Mouton said. However, he added that any blockade would be short-lived against the superior US Navy. History supports this: in 1988, Iran's attempt to mine the strait prompted Operation Praying Mantis, in which the US Navy inflicted heavy damage on Iranian forces.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 30% of the world's traded oil and a third of LNG shipments. Forbes and CNBC warn that any significant disruption could immediately push crude prices higher. A complete closure might spike prices by $10-20 per barrel, while halving oil flows for a month could raise them by nearly 30% to over $110 per barrel, according to Goldman Sachs.
Even short-term interruptions would rattle global markets, raising costs for major importers like China and India. Citigroup projects that prolonged disruptions could see oil prices climb toward $90 per barrel.
Iran may not be able to enforce a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but its ability to deploy mines, missiles and drones means that temporary disruptions remain a potent geopolitical tool. In a world where energy markets are finely balanced, even a short-lived disturbance in this strategic waterway could ignite oil prices and create ripple effects across the global economy.
Source: ZeeNews
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