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SIR hits TMC's core turf in Bengal; party banks on turnout surge, women and minority consolidation
West Bengal's voter list revision has significantly impacted Muslim-majority areas and crucial districts like North and South 24 Parganas, affecting over 1.23 crore voters. The TMC aims to counter this by consolidating women, minority votes, and leveraging Bengali pride, while the BJP frames the exercise as a cleanup against illegal immigrants.
The SIR of 's voter list has struck the electoral nerve centre of the , hitting and the crucial two 24 Parganas districts ahead of the assembly polls, even as the ruling party bets on higher turnout, Bengali pride and women and to blunt the impact.
The electoral roll revision has had its deepest impact in North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, Malda, North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur - six districts that together account for over 100 assembly seats, including 64 in the two 24 Parganas alone, widely regarded as the electoral backbone of any winning coalition in Bengal.
These districts have also been central to the TMC's dominance since 2011, with the party sweeping all six in the 2021 assembly polls.
Murshidabad alone has over 11 lakh voters under adjudication, the highest in the state, followed by Malda with around 8.3 lakh. In the politically crucial North 24 Parganas, about 5.9 lakh voters remain under scrutiny, while South 24 Parganas has around 5.2 lakh such cases. These districts also witnessed around 23 lakh deletions.
"Control over North and South 24 Parganas often determines who governs Bengal. If the party's tally in these five districts falls sharply, it could be a challenge for us. We know how to convert the challenge into victory," a TMC leader said.
The Special Intensive Revision exercise resulted in 63.66 lakh deletions, about 8.3 per cent of the electorate, reducing the voter base from 7.66 crore before the revision to about 7.04 crore now. Another 60.06 lakh voters remain under adjudication, awaiting document verification.
The post-SIR rolls show that nearly 1.23 crore voters, roughly one in six electors, are either deleted or under adjudication.
Data compiled across West Bengal's 294 assembly constituencies shows that the number of voters affected by the SIR, deletions and those under scrutiny, exceeds the 2024 Lok Sabha winning margins in more than 200 segments, suggesting the exercise could potentially reshape electoral equations in the state polls due in April.
In at least 120 assembly segments, the number of deleted voters alone is higher than the 2024 Lok Sabha winning margin in those constituencies. The scale of deletions has also crossed the thin victory margins of the 2021 assembly polls in at least 40 seats, of which the majority were won by the and the remaining by the TMC.
In the last assembly elections, the TMC won at least 45 seats with victory margins of less than 10,000 votes, while the BJP secured around 20 constituencies within a similar margin, highlighting how relatively small shifts in votes could influence outcomes in several closely contested segments.
According to TMC sources and researchers, in 41 constituencies where the minority population exceeds 50 per cent, deletions were lower at 5.61 per cent, but the share of voters under adjudication soared to over 21 per cent of the electorate.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha segments, the TMC were ahead in 29 of these seats, the Congress-Left alliance in 11, and the BJP just one.
The BJP has projected the SIR exercise as a long-overdue effort to clean electoral rolls and identify illegal immigrants, particularly from Bangladesh. The TMC, however, argue that the process disproportionately affects districts where the party performed strongly in previous elections.
TMC leader Abhishek Banerjee has alleged that the scale of deletions mirrors earlier claims by BJP leaders that over 1.2 crore names would be removed, suggesting that the exercise was "politically motivated and pre-determined".
Political analyst Suman Bhattacharya said the statistical implications of voter deletions are complex. "If deletions occur proportionately, the party with a larger vote share in a constituency may actually lose more voters numerically. The TMC may attempt to convert the controversy into an emotional advantage," he added.
TMC's state vice-president Jaiprakash Majumdar said the goal will be to increase and sector-wise voting.
"If turnout increases, and if women and Muslim electors vote in large numbers combined with a section of youths, the impact of deletions can be offset. Our goal is sector-wise voting, while the BJP wants voting on religious lines," he said.
The party is also seeking to frame the issue as one of identity and citizenship, arguing that many voters feel harassed by repeated document verification and hearings.
Some strategists believe this sentiment could produce "revenge voting" if a significant number of voters whose names were initially removed are eventually reinstated.
Researcher Sabir Ahamed said the controversy may also trigger stronger minority consolidation behind the TMC.
"When voters feel their citizenship is being questioned, the issue goes beyond party politics. If that sentiment grows, the consolidation of minority voters behind the TMC could intensify, even if there is a resentment among a section, and they were initially looking for other options such as Humayun Kabir," he said.
The TMC is also recalibrating its outreach in other segments where the SIR exercise has generated anger, including Matua-dominated belts in North 24 Parganas, where sections of voters have complained about large-scale deletions.
Senior leaders said the campaign will increasingly emphasise "Bengali pride" and regional identity, portraying the SIR as an attempt to undermine Bengal's electorate.
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Source: EconomicTimes
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