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Ships remain cautious approaching Strait of Hormuz amid fragile ceasefire
The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the US-Israel war with Iran after Tehran effectively choked off one of the world's most important shipping lanes.
A two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreed on Tuesday included a condition that "safe passage" through the narrow waterway would be guaranteed.
However, vessels in the area have received messages that they would be "targeted and destroyed" if they attempted to cross the strait without permission, and only a few ships have made the journey over the past two days.
The disruption since the conflict began five weeks ago has sent shock waves across the global economy, destabilising energy prices and exposing just how reliant international supply chains are on the strait.
As well as energy, the channel is also vital for transporting chemicals needed to process products like microchips, pharmaceuticals and fertiliser.
Having risen dramatically during the conflict, the price of oil initially fell on news of the ceasefire.
Shipping analysts have warned to expect only a trickle of crossings for now.
"Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available," Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime told the BBC.
By 14:00 BST on 9 April only eleven ships (three tankers, one container ship and seven bulk carriers) had been tracked passing through the strait since the ceasefire.
That's based on BBC Verify analysis of ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic. It's possible other ships have made the journey without broadcasting their location.
That compares to 138 ships that passed through the strait each day, on average, before the conflict started on 28 February.
We do not know if the vessels that crossed were the result of the ceasefire, or whether they had already planned to make the journey.
"It is still too soon to tell whether this reflects a broader ceasefire-driven reopening or a previously approved exception," says Ana Subasic from the shipping analyst company Kpler.
"Nothing has really changed yet," adds Jensen, arguing it will take time before crews are confident enough to cross safely.
That view is echoed by Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, who says it has been a "very dangerous" time for ship owners who still face a huge amount of uncertainty.
We know Iran is essentially still in control of the strait, and the assumption is that ship owners will still need to seek permission from the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]… and how that's going to work is still not clear.
BBC Verify's analysis of the paths taken by the ships shows them taking a northern route through the strait close to Iran's coastline, within its territorial waters.
Prior to the conflict, vessels usually took a more southerly route through the middle of the waterway.
If crossings do resume, Meade expects that stranded tankers that are fully loaded with cargo will be the first through.
You've had nearly 800 ships stuck in there for several weeks. Most of them are now loaded with cargo, so the priority is going to be to get them out.
The duration of the ceasefire - set to last two weeks - also brings uncertainty for ships, says Niels Rasmussen, a shipping analyst from BIMCO.
I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Gulf… because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes.
Another uncertainty is the possibility of sea mines, says Thomas Kazakos, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping.
"We need to make sure that we have clear confirmation that the safety of navigation for the ships and the seafarers are being agreed," he told BBC Verify.
On top of these concerns, ships face the uncertainty of possibly having to make payments to Iran in order to secure safe passage - following reports that tolls may be a part of the ceasefire deal.
"The Iranian negotiation position seems to be that you need to pay a toll to go through the strait and shipping lines will also be hesitant in going down the path of paying that toll," says Jensen.
Some countries - including India, Malaysia and the Philippines - have negotiated safe passage for their vessels in recent weeks.
But paying a toll could present an added complexity for other countries and shipping companies as payment "might actually be in violation of some of the US sanctions on Iran which would have other repercussions on shipping lines," adds Jensen.
Sanctions work by criminalising payments to individuals, companies and organisations, explains James Turner, a shipping lawyer from Quadrant Chambers.
He told BBC Verify that a sanction violation occurs when payment is made to anyone on the list, so paying a toll to them would be a violation unless the US makes an exception.
Oil prices plunged initially following the ceasefire, but rose after concerns grew over whether the agreement would hold.
Updated 9 April: This piece has been updated to reflect the latest number of vessels crossing the strait since the ceasefire.
Additional reporting by Tamara Kovacevic
What claims do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
Source: BBC
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