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Rupee slumps to record low even as Goldman Sachs warns of 95/dollar levels
Rupee slumps to record low even as Goldman Sachs warns of 95/dollar levels
Rupee slumps to record low even as Goldman Sachs warns of 95/dollar levels
INR-USD fell to an intraday low of 92.48, surpassing its previous record close of 92.45 set last Friday, even as RBI stepped in to arrest the slide.
Updated on: Mar 18, 2026 3:43 PM IST By HT Business Desk Share via Copy link Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has warned that the Indian Rupee (INR) could tumble to 95 against the US Dollar (USD), even as the local currency fell to a record low today. The rupee has fallen 5.3% against the US dollar so far this year, putting it on track for its steepest annual decline since 2022. (Reuters) INR-USD fell to an intraday low of 92.4875, surpassing its previous record close of 92.4575 set last Friday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively intervening in the markets to cushion the slide, according to traders, as the fallout from the Iran war widens India's current account deficit.Widening Deficits
“The rupee remains under pressure in our view, given the current account deficit is widening,” Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist for India, said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Goldman Sachs recently revised its outlook for India, cutting growth forecasts for this year to 6.5% from 7%, while raising inflation estimates by 30 basis points. The firm predicts the current account deficit will expand to 1.2% of GDP this year, up from 2025 levels. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.RBI Monetary Policy
While India's inflation rate remains within the RBI's target range for now, a prolonged weakness in rupee combined with surging oil prices could force Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s hand. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged in February, signaling a long pause, but Goldman's Sengupta believes that if energy costs filter through to the consumer, then the RBI will be forced to tighten. “That question will come up further down the line rather than now,” he said. But instead of immediate rate hikes, the central bank is expected to provide liquidity support to keep the economy buoyant.India's Fiscal Shield
The Indian government is expected to lean on fiscal tools rather than monetary policy to absorb the shock. To protect consumption, New Delhi may lower excise duties on fuel or ramp up fertilizer subsidies—a critical sector for the rural economy, which has remained resilient due to low food prices. “The government, in our view, will do all it takes to really protect that sector from full inflation,” Sengupta said, estimating the subsidy bill could rise by 0.3% of GDP. ALSO READ | RBI's defence of rupee is weighing on forex reserves Despite the geopolitical headwinds, Goldman remains “fairly optimistic” about the Indian economy’s underlying strength, though much depends on the duration of the Iran conflict and the trajectory of crude oil prices. ABOUT THE AUTHOR HT Business Desk The HT Business Desk provides comprehensive coverage of the Indian and global financial markets. Based in Mumbai and New Delhi, the team tracks everything from Sensex and Nifty movements to the latest from India Inc., trade deals, and macroeconomic policy. We aim to empower readers with timely, fact-checked news that clarifies the complexities of the business world.Read More Indian Economy Stay updated with the latest Business News on Petrol Price, Gold Rate, Silver Rates, Diesel Prices along with Income Tax Calculator News / Business / Rupee Slumps To Record Low Even As Goldman Sachs Warns Of 95/dollar Levels See LessGoldman Sachs Group Inc. has warned that the Indian Rupee (INR) could tumble to 95 against the US Dollar (USD), even as the local currency fell to a record low today.
INR-USD fell to an intraday low of 92.4875, surpassing its previous record close of 92.4575 set last Friday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively intervening in the markets to cushion the slide, according to traders, as the fallout from the Iran war widens India's current account deficit.
Goldman Sachs recently revised its outlook for India, cutting growth forecasts for this year to 6.5% from 7%, while raising inflation estimates by 30 basis points. The firm predicts the current account deficit will expand to 1.2% of GDP this year, up from 2025 levels.
One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged in February, signaling a long pause, but Goldman's Sengupta believes that if energy costs filter through to the consumer, then the RBI will be forced to tighten. “That question will come up further down the line rather than now,” he said.
But instead of immediate rate hikes, the central bank is expected to provide liquidity support to keep the economy buoyant.
“The government, in our view, will do all it takes to really protect that sector from full inflation,” Sengupta said, estimating the subsidy bill could rise by 0.3% of GDP.
ALSO READ | RBI's defence of rupee is weighing on forex reserves
Despite the geopolitical headwinds, Goldman remains “fairly optimistic” about the Indian economy’s underlying strength, though much depends on the duration of the Iran conflict and the trajectory of crude oil prices.
Source: HindustanTimes
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