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RBI MPC Begins Three-Day Meeting; Rate Cut Or Pause? Markets Divided Ahead Of Friday Decision
RBI MPC Begins Three-Day Meeting; Rate Cut Or Pause? Markets Divided Ahead Of Friday Decision
RBI MPC Meeting December 2025 Date And Time: The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC) on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra set to unveil the policy outcome on Friday. Markets remain split over whether the central bank will resume rate cuts or extend its pause, especially after the economy posted an unexpectedly strong expansion.
India's GDP grew 8.2 per cent in the September quarter, beating forecasts and strengthening the case for maintaining policy support for growth. However, inflation has remained exceptionally soft, giving room to cut. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print has stayed below the government's mandated lower tolerance band of 2 per cent for two consecutive months. In October, headline inflation eased to a multi-decade low of 0.25 per cent, aided by GST rate reductions, a favourable base, and sharply lower prices of fruits and vegetables.
The RBI kicked off its rate-easing cycle in February last year and has slashed the repo rate by 100 basis points since then, to 5.5 per cent, before hitting pause in August. In October also, the repo rate was left unchanged at 5.5.
The RBI governor will announce the upcoming repo rate decision on the last day of the 3-day meeting on Friday at 10 am.
Growth vs Inflation: The Policy Dilemma
Several economists believe the central bank may choose caution this week, despite disinflationary trends. They argue that the current policy rate already delivers a healthy positive real rate, given expectations that inflation will settle above 4 per cent in the coming fiscal year.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, said the decision is “a close call", but added: “Under these conditions, we do not think that there should be any change in the policy rate."
Others see scope for one more cut, pointing to inflation running well below target and lingering risks to growth. A report from HDFC Bank said, “Given the lingering risks on growth (in H2) and inflation expected to remain well below 4 per cent until Q3 FY27, we see that there may still be a chance of another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming policy."
CRISIL chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi echoed the view, noting that food inflation has been the primary driver of the recent drop in headline readings, with fuel remaining soft as well. Core inflation, excluding gold, fell to 2.6 per cent in October. “We anticipate a 25-basis point cut in the repo rate in December," he said, arguing that October's inflation print “has created additional room" for easing.
Sandeep Vempati, economist & member of the Bharatiya Janata Party, said, “India is the only large economy that is witnessing a favourable state of increasing growth rates and declining inflation. This surely is not a tricky situation for the RBI MPC to take a call on interest rates. RBI MPC might go for a rate cut and signal its focus on sustaining high growth rate as there is no heating up in the economy due to various fiscal and monetary measures as evident in the downward trending inflation trajectory."
Core inflation adjusted for ornamental metals and petrol and diesel prices is trending downwards and ruling below 4 per cent currently. RBI inflation forecast for the next fiscal is 4.5 per cent, which could be reduced in the upcoming MPC meet. Adjusted for ornamental metals and petrol and diesel prices, it could be even lower, he added.
“Since the RBI is forward-looking and inflation conditions are softer, the RBI MPC is likely to go for a 25 bps cut or possibly for 50 bps to sustain a high growth rate through increased consumption, investments and exports. The only possible constraint is the transmission of interest rate that can hold the RBI on taking a call on interest rates but the tilt is for a rate reduction," Vempati said.
Guidance Seen as Neutral to Dovish
Even if the policy rate remains unchanged, analysts expect the RBI to strike a neutral to dovish tone, signalling sufficient liquidity and keeping the door open for future cuts depending on how growth and prices evolve.
However, there are concerns that cutting rates now could trigger outflows and complicate resource mobilisation for banks. Mandar Pitale, Head-Financial Markets at SBM Bank (India), said he expects the MPC to hold rates “to support the BoP and to avoid aggravating the immediate issue on resource mobilisation".
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, also expects a pause, arguing that the strong 8 per cent-plus GDP print reduces the urgency for further policy easing, even as inflation trends comfort policymakers.
What To Watch
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With growth surprising on the upside and inflation undershooting sharply, the December policy review has emerged as one of the most finely balanced in recent quarters. Market watchers will look not just at the rate decision, but at how the central bank frames the trajectory ahead.
The government has mandated the RBI to keep retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent tolerance on either side.
Source: News18
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