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Pak will soon realise cost of having a foot in both US, China camps
Pakistan navigates a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its alliance with China and renewed US interest. The US seeks Pakistan's cooperation on regional issues, potentially straining relations with Iran and China. This shift could reshape South Asian dynamics, impacting resource access and security concerns, particularly regarding Islamist groups and regional stability.
Pakistan will soon find it difficult to balance the conflicting strategic, security and economic interests of its “iron clad” friend and biggest arms supplier, China, and the United States, which helps it in stabilising the economy by providing easy access to its goods in the US markets at comparatively low tariffs (19%). The Pakistani establishment, which was earlier celebrating Chinese military support during the short conflict with India in May, is now revelling in the importance and attention it is getting from the Trump administration. However, the elation in Pakistan due to penal tariffs on its “arch enemy” India by the US will be short-lived.
Both China and the US would soon seek their pound of flesh for doing favour by raising competing and conflicting demands, which the military-civil regime will find it difficult to negotiate and fulfil. Besides, the US demands from Pakistan would bring the latter in conflict with its neighbours that could annoy China no bounds.
But why suddenly Pakistan is being transferred from a neglected ally to a “phenomenal partner” by Donald Trump, when in his last term he had accused Pakistan of offering the US “nothing but lies and deceit”?
The answer lies in Pakistan's unique geographical location bordering Iran, Afghanistan and China, which opens unprecedented opportunities for American intelligence agencies to launch operations to subserve US' strategic and economic interests in the region. The other neighbour, India, is of little concern to the US and the present tensions over some thorny issues, both strategic and economic, are likely to be just transitory.
Besides destabilising the Iranian regime to controlling the mineral reserves in Pakistan and Afghanistan to the exclusion of China, Trump's policies could reshape the entire South Asian strategic landscape and challenge India's assumption about its own relationship with Washington. The most significant move by the US was to host Pakistan's military chief for a private lunch during the raging conflict between Israel-US and Iran, when the former alliance was trying its best to decapitate Iranian religious leadership. Trump did say he discussed Iran with Field Marshal Asim Munir.
So, what help the US wanted from Pakistan on Iran? So far, it has not come out. Was it for another “operation Ajax” of 1953 launched jointly by the CIA and MI6 to topple the then Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh and replace it with a compliant monarch to control Iran's oil reserves? Pakistan is one country that has been used by the US in the past for such ground-based destabilising operations against its neighbour Afghanistan.
Will Pakistan agree to do the same against Iran? With Russia and China supporting Iran against the US-Israel attack, Pakistan will have to risk China's anger for any such move. That is why Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rushed to Pakistan to raise his concerns as to how Iran's security could be in peril once American companies arrive in bordering Balochistan.
But the real competition and possible conflict of interest between the US and China in the region will be on accessing mineral resources, including lithium and rare earths, in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan and contiguous areas of Afghanistan. The US presence in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would for certain have a destabilising effect in the region affecting Iran, Afghanistan and Chinese interests.
The differences between China and the US on dealing with Islamist groups in the region is another flashpoint, with the only exception of Islamic State Khorasan Province, which is inimical to the interests of both the countries. China suspects that the US uses Baloch separatists and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to target its interests in Pakistan. But it is also true that Baloch separatists label China as a neo-imperialist power out to exploit their resources. Similarly, there are elements of Chinese separatist group, East Turkestan Islamic Movement, in TTP, who encourage the organisation to target Chinese interests.
China is separately trying to consolidate its influence in the South Asian region to keep the US away. In the trilateral meeting with foreign ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Kabul last month, the Chinese foreign minister focused on improving security mechanisms, deepening law enforcement and ensuring security co-operation enunciating Chinese concept of “indivisible security”.
China also encouraged Pakistan and Afghanistan to improve bilateral relations and address concerns through dialogue. But soon the two countries were at each other's throats. Pakistan launched air attacks on suspected TTP hideouts in Afghanistan and continues deporting Afghans.
Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now! The reality is that getting connected to the US comes naturally to Pakistani military rulers, beginning with Ayub Khan. Besides, the US endorsement was crucial for a hybrid regime that lacked domestic legitimacy and continued to detain the most popular leader, Imran Khan. Pakistan is not realising that China had extended military and strategic support to it at the cost of angering India, but certainly not to see Pakistani military leadership showering praises on Trump and kowtowing before him.
Source: EconomicTimes
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