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Nifty Prediction For Wednesday: Market Set For Gap-Down Opening On March 4 Amid US-Iran Conflict
Nifty Prediction For Wednesday: Market Set For Gap-Down Opening On March 4 Amid US-Iran Conflict
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are poised for a weak opening on Wednesday, tracking steep losses in Gift Nifty and global markets as tensions in West Asia intensify. Domestic markets were closed on Tuesday for Holi.
Gift Nifty extended its slide as the conflict involving Iran entered its fourth day, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to India’s energy supplies and fuelling inflation fears. At around 2:37 pm, Gift Nifty futures were trading at 24,360, down 632.5 points or 2.53%, signalling a sharply negative start for Indian equities.
The weakness mirrors a broader risk-off mood globally after US-Israel strikes on Iran sent crude oil prices surging, raising alarm over energy security and rising input costs. US President Donald Trump on Monday defended an expansive military campaign against Iran, saying operations were progressing ahead of expectations.
Across Asia, South Korea bore the brunt of the selloff, logging its worst session since 2024 as markets reopened after a holiday. The Kospi plunged 7.2%, its steepest fall since August 2024, with heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix tumbling nearly 10% each.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped over 3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped more than 1%, and China’s Shanghai Composite declined over 1%.
European markets were also deep in the red, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 2.5% as of 2:30 pm IST. Wall Street futures fell up to 2%, pointing to a weak start in the US later in the day.
In a fresh escalation, Iran reportedly attacked the US embassy in Riyadh and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas trade. Brent crude climbed past $80 per barrel after surging more than 7% on Monday.
Higher crude prices have intensified concerns about rising costs for Asian corporates and pressure on profit margins.
On Monday, the Sensex had plunged 2,743.46 points or 3.37% to 78,543.73 in early trade before recovering partially to close at 80,238.85, down 1,048.34 points or 1.29%.
The Nifty fell 575.15 points or 2.28% to 24,603.50 during the session and eventually settled 312.95 points or 1.24% lower at 24,865.70.
Meanwhile, India VIX — the market’s fear gauge — surged 25.01% to 17.13, its highest closing level since June 2, 2025, indicating heightened volatility and risk aversion.
Analysts see the 24,600 level as crucial for Nifty, especially with volatility at a nine-month high amid ongoing Middle East tensions. A decisive break below this mark could embolden bears and drag the index toward the August 2025 low of 24,300. On the upside, 25,000 is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by 25,100 and 25,250 levels.
Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, said that holding near the Budget-day low suggests the possibility of a triple-bottom formation. However, a clear breach of 24,600 could extend the decline toward 24,200. Immediate resistance remains at 25,000, and a move above that could trigger short covering toward 25,200.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, echoed the cautious view, noting that unless Nifty sustains above 25,000, overall sentiment is likely to remain tilted in favour of the bears.
Source: News18
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