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Myanmar's coup leader who set off a brutal civil war is set to become president
Just seven days after he made the fateful decision to launch his coup against the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on 1 February 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing made a promise; to hold elections, and return to civilian rule, within a year.
It has taken him five years to fulfil that promise.
Today, the newly-elected parliament will choose him to be the next president. Min Aung Hlaing has already stepped down as armed forces commander, as required by the constitution before he can take the post of president.
But this is civilian rule in name only.
The parliament, sitting for the first time since the coup, is filled with his loyalists. With the armed forces guaranteed one quarter of the seats, and the military's own party, the USDP, winning nearly 80% of the remaining seats in an election which was tilted heavily in its favour, this was a preordained outcome. More of a coronation, than an election.
Military men are also likely to dominate the new government when it is formed. Min Aung Hlaing has ensured that a staunch ally, General Ye Win Oo, a hardliner with a reputation for brutality, replaces him at the head of the armed forces.
He has also created a new consultative council, which will exercise paramount authority over civilian and military affairs. He is ensuring that in taking off his uniform, he does not dilute his power.
For young activists like Kyaw Win – not his real name – all hope of change has gone. As a student he was arrested for taking part in a flash mob protest against the coup in 2022, and tortured for a week, before being jailed. He was only recently released.
They beat me on my back with an iron rod. They burned me with cigarettes, and slashed my thigh with a knife. Then they stripped my underwear and sexually assaulted me. They interrogated me, but it was never clear what they wanted me to say.
Kyaw Win says his commitment to the revolution, as the activists call it, is unchanged, but he feels unable to do much now from inside Myanmar. He is planning to seek work outside the country.
The five years since Min Aung Hlaing's coup have been a catastrophe for Myanmar.
He appears to have massively miscalculated the public anger he would provoke by seizing power just as the parliament was about to confirm another term of office for Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy, following their landslide win in the November 2020 election.
His decision to use lethal force against the mass protests which broke out across the country ignited a civil war which has killed thousands, displaced millions and ruined the economy.
The military regime has ceded control of huge areas of the country to the armed resistance. It has responded by unleashing its air power on opposition-controlled villages with indiscriminate attacks that have destroyed schools, homes and hospitals.
This is a long-standing military tactic in Myanmar, known as "the four cuts" intended to devastate communities that support insurgent groups. With Chinese and Russian help, the junta has now recaptured some of the ground lost over the past two years.
So, as he presided for the last time over the spectacular parade the Myanmar armed forces hold every year in the capital Nay Pyi Taw, we listened carefully for any hint in his speech of reflection or regret over the damage his coup has caused. There was none.
Instead, we were treated to the same unapologetic justifications for military intervention we have heard so many times before. The soldiers had a constitutional mandate for "constructive engagement in national politics", he said. It was they who had upheld multi-party democracy.
Those opposing military rule were "armed terrorist factions", supported by "foreign aggressors and self-serving political opportunists". Nothing in the speech suggested that Min Aung Hlaing in civilian clothes was going to rule Myanmar any differently than when he was in uniform.
"The conflict in Myanmar will remain largely unchanged," says Su Mon, senior analyst at ACLED, an organisation which collects data on armed conflicts.
The new commander-in-chief, General Ye Win Oo, is a loyalist whose family has a close relationship with that of Min Aung Hlaing. He is likely to follow in his footsteps, first and foremost to regain control of lost territory. Resistance groups still control around 90 towns. This means more air and drone strikes on civilians in resistance-controlled areas, more scorched earth campaigns.
The National Unity Government, representing the administration overthrown by the coup, which operates from resistance-held areas near the border with Thailand, is also not changing its tune.
It has struggled to impose its authority on the myriad armed groups operating all across Myanmar, but it still views the new government, the parliament and the recent election as wholly illegitimate. It insists it will keep fighting to purge the military from political life, and to enact a new federal constitution.
This is not the time to compromise," spokesman Nay Phone Latt said. "If the military cannot accept our objectives, our revolution will go on. We have to go on. If we give up now, the next generation, our people, will suffer more and more.
Min Aung Hlaing's coup has dealt a staggering blow to the economy.
The UN estimates that more than 16 million people are now in need of life-saving assistance. The number of those displaced by the war is approaching four million. Runaway inflation has collapsed living standards.
This is now compounded by fuel shortages caused by the war in the Middle East.
Myanmar imports 90% of its oil and petroleum products, much of it from neighbouring countries which are now restricting exports. Petrol and diesel are being rationed, and prices, already significantly higher than in neighbouring Thailand, have risen sharply.
The difference between now and 10 years ago is like night and day,", said Tin Oo, a motorbike taxi driver in Yangon's industrial district of Hlaing Tharyar. "We cannot earn enough even to cover our rent and food.
He put little faith in the new government.
They won't care about us. We will still have to depend on ourselves. These days if you try to make a simple honest living, it is difficult to survive, but if you are dishonest, you can become rich.
The fuel shortage is especially tough for businesses in Myanmar because so many depend on generators for power; the electricity grid provides only a few hours of power a day in most of Yangon.
Into this cheerless stalemate, Mya Aye, a veteran political activist who has spent many years in military jails, has this week brought a rare voice of reason and restraint, arguing that the only way out of the crisis is to find a compromise between the military and its many opponents.
He has formed a new council trying to bring together all those who agree with him, calling for dialogue and the release of all political prisoners. He has a few prominent political figures with him, but claims he's actually talking confidentially to many more.
This election is not the solution," he said. "It is a game played by Min Aung Hlaing on his people. Nor can we progress with the current constitution. But the public is tired of the situation. If we cannot find a way out, the country will collapse. In fact it is already in a state of collapse.
He argues that if the jailed democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is released, she could play a decisive role, even at the age of 80, in finding an acceptable compromise.
There is talk of her being freed some time this year by Min Aung Hlaing, now that he has finally fulfilled the ambition to be president which played a big part in his decision to launch the coup.
But if there is a path to peace in Myanmar, it is certainly a very narrow one, and for now it is not a path the country's military rulers seem inclined to follow.
Source: BBC
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