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Money, Data, Cadre: Inside Jamaat's Bangladesh Election Playbook And Why It Alarms India | Exclusive
Money, Data, Cadre: Inside Jamaat's Bangladesh Election Playbook And Why It Alarms India | Exclusive
With Bangladesh elections 2026 ongoing, Jamaat-e-Islami's strategy is built not on broad national spread, but on precision targeting and wins, sources have told CNN-News18. CNN-News18 has learned that Jamaat planners have carried out deep constituency-level analysis, drawing on voting data from the 1991 and 1996 elections and combining it with recent internal surveys. This exercise led Jamaat to reassess prospects across all 300 parliamentary seats.
By October 2024, the party had identified 162 constituencies where victory appeared achievable with focused effort. In what insiders describe as an “intelligent consolidation," Jamaat diverted organisational strength, cadre deployment, and resources away from the remaining 138 seats to concentrate on these priority battlegrounds. Dhaka has emerged as a special focus, with around 20 constituencies receiving extra attention because of their political weight and symbolic value.
The party has placed unusual emphasis on voter mobilisation mechanics. Postal voting is a key pillar of this plan. Sources claim that nearly 1.5 million expatriate supporters aligned with Jamaat have been prepared to vote through postal ballots, alongside a large pool of eligible domestic voters.
In urban centres, particularly the capital, Jamaat's Women's Wing and Islami Chhatri Sangstha are conducting door-to-door surveys to map voter behaviour. These units are also tasked with street-level mobilisation on polling day. Jamaat-Shibir activists are expected to reach polling booths immediately after Fajr prayers, aiming to establish early dominance in queues. Insiders see this as a scaled-up version of tactics that helped them win student union elections at Dhaka University and several other public universities — successes viewed internally as rehearsals for the national contest.
Sources say Jamaat's organisational push is underpinned by deep financial and institutional advantages. The party is believed to have earmarked substantial campaign funds for 162 to 188 priority seats, with estimates ranging from BDT 50 to 100 crore per constituency. Jamaat is also reportedly covering campaign expenses for allied outfits, including the National Citizen Party.
At the ground level, activists are said to be collecting national ID details, mobile numbers, and information linked to bKash, Nagad, and Rocket accounts from poorer voters — data that could be used for targeted cash transfers ahead of polling day to influence voting.
Meanwhile, the BNP-led alliance is grappling with internal discord. Rebel candidates are expected in 70–80 constituencies, diluting campaign coherence. Since August 2024, allegations of extortion, arson, and violence have reportedly been more frequent against BNP affiliates than against Jamaat-Shibir, further weakening the opposition narrative.
Jamaat insiders claim the party could secure 205–210 seats, while the BNP-led alliance may be reduced to 90–95 seats. Adding to uncertainty is a referendum scheduled on the same day, which could enable constitutional changes, expand presidential powers, and potentially open a path for Muhammad Yunus to assume the presidency—an outcome sources say is being shaped by the interim government.
Indian intelligence agencies are closely tracking Jamaat-e-Islami's rise, viewing a potential Jamaat-led government in Dhaka as a serious internal security challenge—particularly for West Bengal and parts of the Northeast. Jamaat's ideological foundations and its historical links to Islamist mobilisation networks are seen as factors that could reshape the security environment along India's eastern frontier.
West Bengal, which shares a long and porous border with Bangladesh, is considered the most vulnerable. This border has historically been exploited by smuggling syndicates, illegal migration networks, and extremist couriers. Intelligence sources warn that even subtle changes in enforcement or political signalling from Dhaka could have ripple effects across several sensitive districts.
North 24 Parganas is flagged as a key concern due to its proximity to the international border and its history of communal tension. Any ideological legitimisation of Islamist mobilisation across the border is likely to reflect here through heightened religious polarisation.
In South 24 Parganas, agencies point to the risk of cross-border facilitators operating under the cover of fishing activities and cattle movement. A Jamaat-led administration in Bangladesh could indirectly embolden such networks, complicating monitoring efforts.
Murshidabad, with its sensitive demographic balance and close links to Bangladesh, is viewed as particularly susceptible to ideological spillover. Intelligence inputs suggest that shifts in political climate across the border could quickly influence local narratives.
In Malda, officials fear that increased ideological confidence among Islamist groups in Bangladesh may translate into higher recruitment or logistical support activities, given the district's established cross-border linkages.
Nadia presents a different but equally complex challenge. Here, the concern is not immediate violence but subtle ideological influence that could gradually entrench itself, making detection and intervention more difficult for security agencies.
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The risks extend further north to Cooch Behar and the broader North Bengal region, where any rise in radical sentiment or reduced vigilance on the Bangladesh side could have cascading effects beyond West Bengal, impacting Assam, Tripura, and other northeastern states.
Intelligence officials caution that a Jamaat victory would not merely be a political shift in Dhaka but a development with long-term implications for India's border security, internal stability, and counter-radicalisation efforts.
Source: News18
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