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Minority drift may reverse as SIR
Recent developments, including significant voter list deletions and the BJP's UCC promise, have seemingly reversed a potential drift in the TMC's minority vote bank. Smaller Muslim outfits' ability to challenge the ruling party has diminished, leading to a renewed consolidation of Muslim voters behind the TMC out of fear of a divided vote aiding the BJP.
What looked like the first serious drift in the TMC's minority vote bank in 15 years, a month ago, now appears to turn into a renewed consolidation, with SIR deletions, the BJP's UCC promise and the collapse of the AIMIM-AJUP front potentially strengthening the ruling party's hold over Muslim voters once again.
Till March, smaller Muslim outfits, such as the , AIMIM and Humayun Kabir's AJUP, which spoke of building "independent political leadership" - aided by anger over the Waqf law, OBC reservations and madrasa recruitment - seemed capable of eating into the TMC's minority base in nearly 110 Muslim-majority seats of the state.
But the mood changed dramatically after over 91 lakh names were deleted during the SIR (nearly one-third of them believed to be Muslims), followed by the break-up of the AIMIM-AJUP alliance, the purported sting video on Kabir and the BJP's promise to implement the Uniform Civil Code, political observers and minority leaders said.
They said the result is that the 2026 election is beginning to resemble 2021 once again, with large sections of minority voters rallying behind the TMC not out of enthusiasm, but out of fear that a divided vote could help the BJP.
"The minority vote had shown a sign of fragmentation in some areas. But the developments of the last three weeks have changed the mood completely. Now there is a growing feeling among minority voters that however unhappy they may be with the TMC, they cannot afford to divide their votes, which will help the BJP," political analyst Maidul Islam said.
The strongest trigger has been the SIR deletions, reducing the electorate by nearly 12 per cent. The EC has not released any religious break-up of the deleted names. But according to figures compiled by various political parties, around 34 per cent of those removed are Muslims.
That means nearly 31 lakh Muslim names may have disappeared from the rolls -- a significant figure in a state where the community accounts for roughly 27 per cent of the population and around 30 per cent of voters.
The decline may appear modest in percentage terms -- a little over five per cent of the minority electorate -- but its political effect could be substantial. In 2021, the TMC had won 87 of the 89 seats where minorities comprised more than 30 per cent of voters, and 106 of the 112 seats where their share was around 20 per cent or more.
Any reduction in the minority electorate, therefore, hurts the TMC, and to a lesser extent, the Congress-Left alliance, because the BJP has virtually no share in that vote bank.
The impact has been most visible in minority-dominated districts that form the backbone of the TMC's electoral strength.
North 24 Parganas, with 31 assembly seats, recorded the highest deletions in the state, losing 12.6 lakh voters. South 24 Parganas, the TMC's biggest stronghold with 33 seats, saw the second-highest deletions at 10.91 lakh.
Murshidabad, where the ruling party has traditionally dominated most of the district's 22 assembly segments, recorded the third-highest deletions with 7.48 lakh names removed, while Malda, with 16 seats, lost 4.59 lakh voters.
In these districts, the SIR has produced not merely anxiety but also consolidation.
"In the beginning, some people were thinking of voting for ISF, Congress or Humayun Kabir. Now most people feel this is not the time to divide the minority vote," said Ershad Molla, a school teacher in Murshidabad.
That sense of insecurity has deepened after the BJP's manifesto promises to implement the Uniform Civil Code within six months of coming to power. Though the BJP insists the UCC means equal laws for all citizens, minority organisations have portrayed it as an attempt to interfere with Muslim personal law and identity.
Mohammed Kamruzzaman, general secretary of the All Bengal Minority Youth Federation, who had earlier argued that smaller Muslim parties could dent the TMC's support base, said the political mood had changed sharply.
"After the SIR deletions, the UCC promise and the Humayun Kabir controversy, many minorities now believe the election has become a direct fight between the BJP and the TMC. When people feel their citizenship or voting rights are under threat, they tend to rally behind the party they see as their protector and in the absence of a viable third front, the TMC would be the biggest beneficiary," he said.
Maulana Mohammad Shafique Qasmi, Imam of Kolkata's Nakhoda Mosque, said the issue had created "deep concern" among Muslims.
"When they hear talk of the UCC and deleted names, they begin to feel that the bigger battle is to protect their identity and constitutional rights. Muslims are likely to vote for TMC as they will not waste their votes by voting for other parties which cannot fight communal forces," he said.
The collapse of the AIMIM-AJUP alliance has weakened the prospect of an alternative Muslim political platform. The understanding broke down after a purported video surfaced in which a man resembling Kabir was heard discussing an alleged deal with the BJP to split minority votes and weaken the TMC.
Though Kabir denied the charge and described the clip as AI-generated, the damage appears to have been done.
"Minority voters, after the SIR deletions, the UCC promise and the collapse of the Humayun Kabir experiment, increasingly feel they have no politically viable option outside Mamata Banerjee," political analyst Suman Bhattacharya said.
The Congress may still retain some influence in parts of Malda, Murshidabad and Uttar Dinajpur, where it has a traditional base and where the Left is contesting separately. The TMC believes that this renewed consolidation could blunt anti-incumbency in several closely fought constituencies.
"Just as in 2021, minorities now realise that every divided vote helps the BJP. The more the BJP speaks of UCC, infiltration and deleted names, the more minorities are returning to us," a senior TMC leader said.
BJP leader Debjit Sarkar rejected that argument and said the TMC is trying to create fear, "Our fight is against infiltrators and bogus voters, not genuine citizens. The TMC is using religion to protect its vote bank."Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source
Source: EconomicTimes
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