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Nifty Outlook: Khamenei Killing, Iran-Israel War May Trigger Gap-Down on Monday
Nifty Outlook: Khamenei Killing, Iran-Israel War May Trigger Gap-Down on Monday
Nifty Outlook: The Indian stock market may see volatility on Monday, March 2, after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in missile strikes during a US operation.
The Iranian media has confirmed the killing of the Supreme Leader and informed that the Iranian government has announced 40 days of mourning.
Iran has launched a new wave of strikes targeting Israel and United States bases. Following Khamenei’s death, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a strong warning against Israel and the United States. The force vowed what it described as the “most ferocious offensive operation in history".
The Dalal Street is bracing for volatile session on Monday.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said investor sentiment had already turned cautious due to global macro and geopolitical headwinds, even before the latest military escalation intensified concerns.
For the week, the Nifty 50 declined 1.54% to close at 25,178.65, while the Sensex fell 1.84% to settle at 81,287, reflecting broad-based selling amid geopolitical tensions and pressure across sectors.
“Indian equities went through a volatile corrective phase in the week ended February 27, 2026, as global and domestic factors weighed on sentiment. Initial weakness was driven by concerns around AI-led disruption in the IT outsourcing space, a sharp fall in the U.S. Nasdaq, and diminishing expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts following mixed economic data," Ponmudi said.
He added that trade and geopolitical developments further dampened sentiment. President Trump’s decision to impose a 10–15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act from February 24 added fresh uncertainty for export-oriented sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, gems and machinery, though the impact appears less severe than first feared.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran have kept crude oil prices elevated due to fears of potential disruption in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For India, which relies heavily on crude imports, higher oil prices add another layer of macroeconomic pressure at a time when risk appetite is already fragile.
Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, said the market closed the week on a weak footing. “The Nifty 50 ended down 1.54%, with Friday’s sharp sell-off adding to the pressure. On the technical front, the index has slipped below the key 25,300 support level and breached its 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish shift in near-term momentum," he said.
Nachiketa Sawrikar, Fund Manager at Artha Bharat Global Multiplier Fund, noted that markets were already under strain in February, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining in the US, and India’s Nifty 50 slipping on a year-to-date basis.
“In such a fragile environment, any direct military action involving the US and Israel against Iran could trigger widespread risk-off sentiment across developed and emerging markets," he said.
For India, the impact could be amplified. Higher crude prices tend to widen the current account deficit, fuel inflation, weaken the rupee and potentially accelerate foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows as global investors trim exposure to risk assets, Sawrikar added.
On the technical front, he said, “The Nifty 50 has slipped below its key short-term moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), confirming emerging weakness after a failed rebound. A bearish formation on the weekly chart signals distribution at higher levels. Immediate support lies at 25,100-25,000; a break below this zone could expose 24,900-24,700 near the long-term trendline. On the upside, 25,350-25,500 now acts as immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this band is needed for stabilization. RSI around 46 and a negative MACD indicate mild bearish momentum. Overall bias remains negative to range-bound, with consolidation possible near support."
For Bank Nifty, he added, “Bank Nifty closed at 60,529, retreating from recent highs and forming a short-term double-top pattern, suggesting profit booking. Immediate support is placed at 60,300-59,900; a breakdown could extend losses toward 59,700-59,500. Resistance is seen at 60,800-61,000, with a sustained reclaim required to revive upward momentum toward 61,400-61,500. RSI near 52 reflects neutral but weakening momentum. The bias remains mildly negative unless support levels hold firmly."
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this News18.com report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Source: News18
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