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ITC, Godfrey Phillips Tumble Up To 5% After Sharp Hike In Cigarette Excise Duty
ITC, Godfrey Phillips Tumble Up To 5% After Sharp Hike In Cigarette Excise Duty
Shares of cigarette manufacturers ITC and Godfrey Phillips India fell as much as 5% on Friday, January 2, extending sharp losses after the government announced a steep increase in excise duties on cigarettes.
ITC shares slipped 4.8% to hit a fresh 52-week low of Rs 346.60 on the BSE, while Godfrey Phillips India declined 4.3% to Rs 2,190.
Late on Wednesday, the finance ministry notified a revised excise duty structure of Rs 2,050 to Rs 8,500 per 1,000 cigarette sticks, depending on length, effective February 1. The announcement rattled the tobacco sector and triggered heavy selling on Thursday.
During the previous session, ITC, the country's largest cigarette maker and owner of brands such as Gold Flake, tumbled 9.7% to close at Rs 363.95 on the BSE, wiping out over Rs 50,000 crore in market capitalisation. Godfrey Phillips India, which markets Marlboro cigarettes in India, saw an even steeper fall of 17%, marking its worst intraday decline since November 2016.
The sharp sell-off reflects investor concerns over the rising tax burden and the risk of volume contraction for organised cigarette players. The new excise duty is in addition to the existing 40% Goods and Services Tax (GST). According to Jefferies, the overall tax incidence could now increase well beyond 20%, and may even cross 30% if the National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) continues to apply.
Jefferies termed the move a “meaningful negative surprise" for the sector, saying it is clearly adverse for companies like ITC in the near term. While maintaining a long-term positive view on the stock, the brokerage warned of a significant impact on volumes and earnings.
ICICI Securities highlighted that the revised duty implies a 22%–28% rise in costs for 75–85 mm cigarettes. Cigarettes longer than 75 mm, which account for about 16% of ITC's volumes, could see price increases of Rs 2–3 per stick.
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Jefferies added that ITC may have to implement “double-digit price hikes" across key brands to protect margins. However, it cautioned that such increases could hurt demand for legal cigarettes and accelerate down-trading and illicit trade, potentially leading to market share losses for organised players.
The brokerage also flagged the risk of a resurgence in illicit cigarette trade, which had eased in recent years due to stable taxation. A widening gap between tax-paid and smuggled cigarettes could again work against companies like ITC and Godfrey Phillips.
Source: News18
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