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Iraq risks repeating its darkest chapter as al-Maliki eyes a return to power
Iraq’s political time loop: Why Nouri al-Maliki’s comeback raises fears of another national collapse?
Nouri al-Maliki's potential return to power signals Iraq's failure to break free from sectarian politics, corruption, and institutional decay rooted in the post-2003 order. His comeback risks reviving the same policies that fuelled unrest, empowered extremist groups, and weakened Iraq's sovereignty.
Iraq appears to be circling back to a past many hoped it had left behind. Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced his withdrawal from the race to form the next government, a decision that has all but cleared the path for former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to reclaim power. For many Iraqis, this is not political continuity; it is a warning sign.
al-Maliki''s possible return is widely seen as a symptom of Iraq's unresolved post-2003 crisis, a state still trapped in sectarian politics, institutional decay and entrenched corruption more than two decades after the US-led invasion.
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When al-Maliki first became prime minister in 2006, he enjoyed strong backing from the administration of US President George W Bush, which viewed him as a stabilising figure. That confidence faded quickly. By November of that year, just six months into his tenure, US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley was already questioning al-Maliki's ability to curb violence against Iraq's Sunni population.
Despite these concerns, Washington continued to support him, a decision that would later prove costly. Under al-Maliki, Iraq moved steadily away from the post-invasion promise of inclusive governance.
During his first two terms, he oversaw a systematic marginalisation of Sunnis, politically and socially, largely through the selective use of de-Baathification laws. Originally designed to remove loyalists of Saddam Hussein, these measures became a blunt sectarian instrument. In 2010 alone, al-Maliki used de-Baathification legislation to bar nine political parties and more than 450 candidates, most of them Sunni, from contesting parliamentary elections.
Security forces under his command arrested moderate Sunni politicians on dubious “terrorism” charges and crushed peaceful dissent. One of the most notorious episodes occurred in 2013 in the town of al-Hawija, in Kirkuk province. After weeks of peaceful protests against government discrimination, security forces stormed the sit-in, killing at least 44 demonstrators.
At the same time, Baghdad witnessed the forced displacement of Sunni families and the consolidation of Shia-dominated neighbourhoods, an effort widely described as state-backed demographic engineering.
These policies pushed Iraqi politics into dangerous territory, where sectarian identity replaced citizenship and national cohesion collapsed. The resulting anger and alienation within Sunni communities created fertile ground for extremist groups, first al-Qaeda and later ISIL (ISIS).
al-Maliki's years in office were also marked by staggering corruption and mismanagement. In 2018, Iraq's parliamentary transparency commission estimated that $320bn had been lost to corruption since 2003. al-Maliki was the prime minister for eight of those 15 years.
The money fuelled lavish lifestyles for political insiders, overseas property purchases and networks of shell companies and secret bank accounts. Iraq's Federal Commission of Integrity documented many of these abuses, but prosecutions never followed. Under al-Maliki, judicial independence was steadily eroded, making accountability impossible.
The rot extended to the security sector. The Iraqi army was riddled with “ghost soldiers”, fictional troops whose salaries were siphoned off by commanders. By 2014, this scheme alone was costing the state about $380m annually. al-Maliki himself reportedly ran a secret prison and commanded a personal force of 3,000 loyal troops.
Years of corruption, coupled with nearly $100bn in US military funding, ended in catastrophe. In 2014, Iraqi army units collapsed in the face of advancing ISIL forces, abandoning cities and weapons with barely a fight.
al-Maliki has not been politically dormant since leaving office. For more than a decade, he has remained deeply embedded in Iraq's power structure, carefully positioning himself for a comeback under the watch of successive US administrations.
A third term would likely intensify sectarian polarisation and further weaken state institutions. His preference for shadow networks of loyalists over formal governance risks hollowing out what remains of the Iraqi state.
The regional implications are equally significant. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah, Iraq has become Iran's most important regional foothold. Tehran's influence has rarely been so exposed, and al-Maliki's return would all but rule out a more independent Iraqi foreign policy.
He has already signalled resistance to engaging Syria's new leadership. Last year, he opposed interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa's attendance at the Arab League Summit in Baghdad, describing him as “wanted by Iraqi courts on terrorism charges”.
Relations with Washington could also come under strain. The appointment of Mark Savaya as US special envoy to Iraq by President Donald Trump, the first such role in two decades, highlighted American efforts to curb Iranian influence. A key US demand is the dismantling and full integration of the pro-Iranian Popular Mobilisation Forces into the Iraqi army.
That is unlikely under al-Maliki, widely regarded as the political architect and “godfather” of these parallel armed groups. Dismantling them would mean dismantling his own power base and loosening Iraq's ties with Tehran.
The deeper issue goes beyond any single leader. al-Maliki's resurgence shows how Iraq remains locked in a political cycle that has delivered little but crisis. The lessons of 2014 appear unlearned. Sectarian mobilisation and kleptocracy remain viable routes to power.
Iraqi youth have repeatedly taken to the streets to challenge this broken system, demanding accountability and genuine reform. Yet without fundamental changes to how power is distributed, how corruption is punished and how identity is politicised, Iraq risks reliving its darkest chapters, again.
Source: ZeeNews
Related Posts: Nouri al-Maliki, Nouri al-Maliki return, Iraq political crisis, sectarian politics Iraq, ISIL rise Iraq, Iran influence in Iraq,Nouri al-Maliki, Nouri al-Maliki return
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