<h4 class=
Latest News

Tim Cook called to ‘kiss my a**’: Donald Trump’s post on ‘incredible’ Apple CEO is all about himselfDonald Trump’s post on Tim Cook’s succession announcement has prompted varied reactions. Published on: Apr 22, 2026 6:53 AM IST By Trisha Sengupta Share via Copy link President Donald

<h4 class=
Latest News

India, US seek greater clarity on trade issuesThe Indian negotiating team, led by Additional Secretary Darpan Jain, met US negotiators led by Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch to begin talks. Updated on: Apr 22, 2026 7:35 AM IST By Shashank Mattoo Share via Copy link Another round of

Ten years ago, Leicester were days away from winning the Premier League. Next season, they will play in League One.</b> The Foxes have suffered a sharp
Sports

Ten years ago, Leicester were days away from winning the Premier League. Next season, they will play in League One. The Foxes have suffered a sharp decline since winning the FA Cup in 2021, and Tuesday's 2-2 draw with Hull City confirmed their relegation to the third tier.Ten years ago

The Congress on Tuesday submitted a privilege notice to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging that his national address on
Politics

The Congress on Tuesday submitted a privilege notice to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging that his national address on April 18 “cast aspersions” on Opposition MPs. In a letter to Birla, Congress MP KC Venugopal said that a prime minister criticising the

Global oil prices traded lower on Wednesday morning after US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran to allow talks to
Latest News

Global oil prices traded lower on Wednesday morning after US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran to allow talks to continue toward a “unified proposal”. However, the ongoing US naval blockade of Iran and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz limited

For most tourists heading to the picturesque meadows of Pahalgam in Kashmir, the first stop for many years has been a stone-paved pathway built along the banks
World

For most tourists heading to the picturesque meadows of Pahalgam in Kashmir, the first stop for many years has been a stone-paved pathway built along the banks of river Lidder. Standing in its middle, a decorative frame of wooden beams with colorful letters saying “I love Pahalgam”

<h4 class=
Sports

Is Kevin Durant playing tonight? NBA injury analyst's concerning update with Game 2 status uncertainKevin Durant hurt his knee in practice after a collision caused a patellar tendon bruise; experts warn it could worsen. KD's status for Game 2 is uncertain. Published on: Apr 22

<h4 class=
Latest News

Sundar Pichai reacts to Tim Cook’s 1st tweet after Apple confirms John Ternus as new CEOTim Cook will become the executive chairman of Apple’s board of directors. John Ternus will assume the role of CEO on September 1. Published on: Apr 22, 2026 7:37 AM IST By Trisha Sengupta Share via Copy

Indian Rupee In 2025: A Currency Under Pressure, Not In Crisis

Posted By: Hemant Kumar Posted On: Dec 29, 2025Share Article
Indian Rupee In 2025
Rupee Vs Dollar In 2025.

Indian Rupee In 2025: A Currency Under Pressure, Not In Crisis

The Indian rupee closed 2025 under sustained pressure, ending the year near historic lows against the US dollar after depreciating 4.7% during the calendar year. While the headline number places the rupee among Asia's weaker currencies in 2025, the drivers of the decline were largely external rather than domestic, reinforcing the view that the currency weakened more due to global shocks than internal fragility.

After already slipping 2.8% in 2024, the rupee's extended decline marked another difficult year for India's currency, which spent much of the second half of 2025 hovering close to the psychologically important Rs 90-per-dollar level, according to a report titled ‘India's Rupee in 2025: Navigating External Shocks' authored by Anil Kumar Bhansali, executive director of Finrex Treasury Advisors.

The rupee's trajectory through 2025 followed a clear pattern. The first quarter saw relative stability, with mild depreciation as foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows began and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in to smooth volatility. Pressure intensified between April and July as global dollar strength and sustained FPI selling weighed on emerging market currencies, according to the report.

The most acute stress emerged between August and October, when trade-related tensions escalated. The US imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods, partly linked to India's purchases of Russian oil, worsening sentiment and widening the trade deficit. By November and December, the rupee was testing record lows, with persistent capital outflows keeping it under strain, the report added.

Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of around $10 billion during the year, rotating capital towards markets such as the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and China, where AI- and technology-led growth offered better risk-adjusted returns. India's appeal also dimmed after the RBI cut policy rates by 125 basis points, narrowing the yield differential with the US, where Treasury yields hovered around 4.5%.

Geopolitics compounded the problem. The US imposed cumulative tariffs of up to 50% on Indian exports during 2025, hurting trade sentiment. Although lower crude oil prices saved India nearly $22 billion on the import bill, the benefit was partly offset by higher gold and defence imports, according to the report.

India's current account deficit (CAD) improved to around 0.8% of GDP in the first half of FY26, reflecting lower energy costs. However, the report flags that the CAD could widen to around 2.5% of GDP in the second half, driven largely by strong gold demand and a wider merchandise trade gap.

Despite these pressures, domestic macro fundamentals remained relatively resilient. Growth stayed strong, inflation eased sharply, and fiscal stability held up — reinforcing the assessment that the rupee's weakness was not a reflection of domestic stress.

The RBI played a critical role in preventing disorderly movements. While it intervened frequently to smooth volatility, the central bank also used the opportunity to rebuild reserves. During 2025, it is estimated to have added nearly $50 billion to its forex stockpile.

The RBI also reduced its large oversold forward position. From a peak short position of about $88 billion, the forward book improved to around $53 billion by August, before moving back towards $70 billion by November. Markets increasingly viewed the RBI's approach as a managed crawl, allowing gradual depreciation while firmly resisting panic-driven moves, the report said.

On a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis, the rupee corrected sharply during the year, falling from around 108 to 98, suggesting undervaluation. Yet this did not translate into a relief rally. Persistent dollar demand from FPIs, oil companies and importers meant the rupee failed to benefit even when the dollar index softened or the Chinese yuan strengthened.

The report outlines three broad scenarios for 2026.

In a base case, considered the most likely, the rupee is expected to trade in a Rs 88-92 range, supported by gradual US Federal Reserve rate cuts, stable oil prices and moderate capital inflows.

A bullish scenario, contingent on tariff relief and strong global risk appetite, could push the rupee towards Rs 84-87, though this is seen as less probable.

Conversely, if tariffs persist and geopolitical tensions intensify, the rupee could weaken further towards Rs 92-96.

Swipe Left For Next Video

“The rupee has repeatedly lost 15-18% in each major depreciation cycle since 2000, with the latest phase showing an ~8% fall to 91.08 levels. A US-India trade deal could strengthen the rupee toward 87-88, though RBI's $60-65 bn short position may limit gains. If the deal falters, the rupee risks weakening to 92-94, in line with past 13-15% depreciation patterns as the rate gap narrows," the report said.

In 2025, the rupee fought another familiar battle — against global risk aversion, capital flow volatility and geopolitics. While the currency ended the year weaker, it did so without triggering a balance-of-payments crisis or macro instability. The message from the year gone by is clear: the rupee remains vulnerable to global shocks, but its foundations at home are sturdier than the headline depreciation suggests.

Comment on Post

Leave a comment

If you have a News Orbit 360 user account, your address will be used to display your profile picture.


<h4 class=
Latest News
Supreme Court agrees to hear plea challenging NIA Act

Supreme Court agrees to hear plea challenging NIA ActThe court heard a PIL by Kerala lawyer Mohammed Mubarak Ali, also an accused in an NIA case on alleged unlawful activities of banned outfit PFI. Published on: Apr 22, 2026 7:44 AM IST By Abraham Thomas Share via Copy link The Supreme Court on

1 minutes ago

Congress MP K. C. Venugopal has moved a privilege notice against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging he cast aspersions on opposition MPs during his April
Politics
Congress moves breach of privilege notice over PM Modi's address on voting against Constitution Amendment Bill

Congress MP K. C. Venugopal has moved a privilege notice against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging he cast aspersions on opposition MPs during his April 18 address by criticising their vote against the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Education
Bombay High Court Hall Ticket 2026 for peon posts released

Bombay High Court Hall Ticket 2026 for peon posts released at bhc.gov.in, direct link to download hereBombay High Court Hall Ticket 2026 has been released for peon posts. The direct link to download the admit card is given here. Updated on: Apr 21

1 minutes ago

<strong>SBI Life Insurance Q4 FY26 Results Preview</strong>: Mumbai-headquartered SBI Life Insurance Company is set to report its financial results
Latest News
SBI Life Q4 FY26 results preview

SBI Life Insurance Q4 FY26 Results Preview: Mumbai-headquartered SBI Life Insurance Company is set to report its financial results for the January-March period on Tuesday, April 22. Analysts expect the insurer to stage a mixed Q4 performance

1 minutes ago

Tim Cook steps into a new role as executive chairman, dedicating more time to global diplomacy for Apple. He will engage policymakers worldwide amidst US-China
World
Apple’s Tim Cook takes on crucial new role

Tim Cook steps into a new role as executive chairman, dedicating more time to global diplomacy for Apple. He will engage policymakers worldwide amidst US-China trade friction and rising geopolitical tensions. Cook's experience in building Apple's China operations and his relationship with Donald

1 minutes ago

The FIVB has tasked an existing steering committee comprising Indian Olympic Association (IOA) Executive Council member Rohit Rajpal, CEO Raghuram lyer
Sports
International body revokes recognition of Volleyball Federation of India

The FIVB has tasked an existing steering committee comprising Indian Olympic Association (IOA) Executive Council member Rohit Rajpal, CEO Raghuram lyer, FIVB General Sports Director Steve Tutton, FIVB Head of Legal Affairs and General Counsel Stephen Bock and Hitesh Malhotra

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Education
BPCL Recruitment 2026

BPCL Recruitment 2026: Apply for 250 Junior Executive and other posts at bharatpetroleum.in, link hereBPCL will recruit for Junior Executive and other posts. Eligible candidates can apply at bharatpetroleum.in. Published on: Apr 21, 2026 2:25 PM IST By HT Education Desk | Edited by Papri Chanda

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Entertainment
Reese Witherspoon responds to criticism over stance on AI

Reese Witherspoon responds to criticism over her stance on AI: ‘No one is paying me to talk about this’Reese Witherspoon has responded to backlash over comments on AI, also addressing speculation about whether she was being paid to promote the technology. Apr 22, 2026

1 minutes ago

Gold and silver prices in India fell to one week lows as the US dollar strengthened, with 24k gold near Rs 1,52,830 per 10 grams and silver around Rs 2,60
Business
Gold Prices Today

Gold and silver prices in India fell to one week lows as the US dollar strengthened, with 24k gold near Rs 1,52,830 per 10 grams and silver around Rs 2,60,000 per kg Gold and Silver Rates In India Today, April 21: Gold and silver prices remained flat on April 21

1 minutes ago

The Ministry of Electronics and IT has proposed stricter norms mandating continuous, clearly visible labels on AI-generated content throughout its duration
World
MeitY adds stricter AI labelling rule

The Ministry of Electronics and IT has proposed stricter norms mandating continuous, clearly visible labels on AI-generated content throughout its duration under the IT Rules, 2021. The move aims to curb deepfake risks. The public consultation deadline has been extended to May 7 amid wider

1 minutes ago

K-pop mogul Bang Si-hyuk, the man who created supergroup BTS, could be arrested </b>on charges of fraudulent trading before his $7
Life Style
Why police are seeking to arrest billionaire K-pop mogul behind BTS

K-pop mogul Bang Si-hyuk, the man who created supergroup BTS, could be arrested on charges of fraudulent trading before his $7.3bn company went public. South Korean police have asked prosecutors to request a court warrant over accusations that he misled investors in 2019

1 minutes ago

Police have charged a fourth man in the alleged kidnap and murder of a Sydney grandfather who authorities say was taken by mistake
World
Fourth man charged over mistaken identity kidnap murder of Sydney grandfather

Police have charged a fourth man in the alleged kidnap and murder of a Sydney grandfather who authorities say was taken by mistake. The charges come two months after widower Chris Baghsarian, 85, was kidnapped in a pre-dawn raid at his North Ryde home

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Latest News
₹5 lakh for kin of Panipat sexual assault victim

Karnal: ₹5 lakh for kin of Panipat sexual assault victimAn interim assistance of ₹2 lakh has been immediately transferred to the victim’s parents’ accounts for his education.Also an additional ₹3-lakh fixed deposit was placed in his parents’ accounts

1 minutes ago

Shehbaz Sharif has expressed gratitude to US President Donald Trump for agreeing to extend the ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict
World
Shehbaz Sharif thanks Trump for accepting US-Iran ceasefire request

Shehbaz Sharif has expressed gratitude to US President Donald Trump for agreeing to extend the ceasefire in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, saying the move supports continued diplomatic efforts to achieve lasting peace. In a post on X, Sharif said he hopes both sides will maintain the

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Entertainment
Farah Khan agreed to act in Toaster because of Rajkummar Rao

Farah Khan agreed to act in Toaster because of Rajkummar Rao and Patralekhaa, says Vivek Daschaudary | ExclusiveFilmmaker and choreographer Farah Khan has a cameo role in Toaster. Director Vivek Daschaudary shared why she was apt for the part. Apr 22, 2026

1 minutes ago

Step into pretty much any shopping mall in Singapore and you're likely to find queues snaking outside shops with catchy names and bright-coloured branding
Business
Hotpot, bubble tea and sportswear

Step into pretty much any shopping mall in Singapore and you're likely to find queues snaking outside shops with catchy names and bright-coloured branding. Chinese brands like Chagee, Molly Tea and Mixue are drawing crowds – not just in Asia

1 minutes ago

Global oil prices fluctuated in early Asian trading on Wednesday as the status of peace talks between the US and Iran remains unclear. On Tuesday
Business
Oil prices fluctuate as status of US-Iran peace talks remains unclear

Global oil prices fluctuated in early Asian trading on Wednesday as the status of peace talks between the US and Iran remains unclear. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he will extend a ceasefire with Iran until talks between the two countries have progressed

1 minutes ago

Among the cruel ironies of the Myanmar civil war, now in its sixth year, is that for an army that is struggling to conscript soldiers
World
Myanmar’s army controls less than one-fifth of the country but the civil war is at a stalemate

Among the cruel ironies of the Myanmar civil war, now in its sixth year, is that for an army that is struggling to conscript soldiers, the Myanmar junta has repeatedly bombed its own troops held as prisoners of war. In this garrison state, it appears everything may be sacrificed to keep the

1 minutes ago

Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026: Ahead of polls in Coimbatore and nearby districts, widespread allegations of “cash for votes” have surfaced
Politics
As Cauvery river runs dry

Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026: Ahead of polls in Coimbatore and nearby districts, widespread allegations of “cash for votes” have surfaced, with voters reportedly receiving ₹1,000–₹5,000 or coupons. Despite police checks, parties are accused of covert distribution

1 minutes ago

A three-day shutdown by Naga civil bodies intensified disruption in Manipur’s hill districts, adding to paralysis in the valley. Protests and blockades
World
Protests force Manipur CM Khemchand Singh to take chopper

A three-day shutdown by Naga civil bodies intensified disruption in Manipur’s hill districts, adding to paralysis in the valley. Protests and blockades forced the Chief Minister to take a helicopter route, while police used controlled firing to disperse a violent mob, leaving one person injured

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Latest News
Woman found hanging at PG accommodation

Haryana: Woman found hanging at PG accommodationA preliminary investigation suggested that the deceased was from Jind who had a love marriage with a Karnal resident three years ago; her spouse allegedly ended his life recently Published on: Apr 22, 2026 7:58 AM IST By Press Trust of India

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Horoscope
Love and Relatioship Horoscope Today for April 22

Love Horoscope Today for April 22, 2026:Love Horoscope Today: Find daily astrological predictions for all sun signs. Published on: Apr 22, 2026 7:30 AM IST By Kishori Sud Share via Copy link Are you worried about your love life? Love Horoscope Today reveals what the stars have in store for your

1 minutes ago

Chelsea</b> head coach Liam Rosenior said his team's performance in their defeat by </b>Brighton</b> was both
Sports
Indefensible

Chelsea head coach Liam Rosenior said his team's performance in their defeat by Brighton was both "indefensible" and "unacceptable" as he faced angry chants from his own supporters for the first time. The chants began when Chelsea fell 1-0 behind at the Amex Stadium

1 minutes ago

United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he was extending the ceasefire with Iran until Tehran comes up with a proposal to end the conflict in
Latest News
Trump extends ceasefire with Iran till Tehran submits ‘unified proposal’ to end conflict

United States President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he was extending the ceasefire with Iran until Tehran comes up with a proposal to end the conflict in West Asia permanently. Trump made the announcement hours before a two-week ceasefire, which began on April 8, was due to expire

1 minutes ago

<h4 class=
Sports
Brighton crush Chelsea to pile pressure on under-fire Rosenior

Brighton crush Chelsea to pile pressure on under-fire RoseniorBrighton crush Chelsea to pile pressure on under-fire Rosenior Updated on: Apr 22, 2026 2:49 AM IST AFP Share via Copy link Chelsea crashed to a dismal 3-0 defeat against Brighton on Tuesday

1 minutes ago

Rattan is all the rage in the home decor space. From partitions to wardrobe shutters and seating, it provides a subtle statement that is both organic and
Life Style
Rattan gets a new weave

Rattan is all the rage in the home decor space. From partitions to wardrobe shutters and seating, it provides a subtle statement that is both organic and elegant. Sourced from over 600 species of palms native to tropical regions of Asia, Africa and Australasia

1 days ago

Apple will have been planning this succession for a long time. Rumours were circulating for a while that 65-year-old Tim Cook was thinking about stepping down
Business
How will Apple change under

Apple will have been planning this succession for a long time. Rumours were circulating for a while that 65-year-old Tim Cook was thinking about stepping down, and while a few potential replacements popped up, the name which stuck was the firm's vice president of hardware, 51-year-old John Ternus

1 days ago


Sing Up