India’s TB Cases Drop 21% In A Decade; A Strong Shift, But Far From The Finish Line

India’s TB Cases Drop 21% In A Decade; A Strong Shift, But Far From The Finish Line

India has recorded a significant decline in its overall tuberculosis burden, with total cases reducing by 21 per cent over the last decade, almost double the global average reduction of 12 per cent. The latest World Health Organization Global TB Report 2025 notes that India's TB incidence has fallen from 237 per lakh population in 2015 to 187 per lakh in 2024, signalling meaningful progress for a country with the world's largest TB burden.

However, experts caution that while the trend is positive, India's ambitious target to eliminate TB by 2025 remains far out of reach.

Dr Lancelot Pinto, Consultant Pulmonologist and Epidemiologist, P. D. Hinduja Hospital & Medical Research Centre, Mahim, places the numbers in a critical global and historical context.

He explains, “One of the WHO's Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) was to end the TB epidemic by 2030. Based on this goal for a 90% reduction in incidence by 2030 compared to the incidence in 2025, India should have had a reduction of the incidence by about 60%, assuming consistent decline in patients with the disease. India chose to have a goal more ambitious that the WHO goal – to eliminate TB by 2025." The present decline of 21 percent from 2015 has to be seen in this context. While it is definitely a step in the right direction, it will need stronger efforts to even come close to the 2030 targets.

“We have over a quarter of the world's incident cases, and while we seem to have done better than the global average reduction, among the top 5 high burden countries, we are a higher resource country than Philippines, Pakistan and Indonesia, and have a higher incidence than China (187 v 55 per 100,000 population). The improvement in treatment coverage, financial and nutritional support, active case finding and the use of newer diagnostic technologies are efforts that need to be commended, and hopefully we will accelerate momentum and increase funding exponentially," adds Dr Pinto.

Dr Pinto's analysis underscores a central paradox: India has made clear progress, yet the pace is nowhere near what its self-declared goals require. The gap between ambition and outcome becomes stark when comparing India's current reduction with what would have been necessary to meet the “elimination by 2025" goal, a target that global experts had already considered highly aspirational.

At the same time, India's achievements cannot be dismissed. The past decade has seen major policy and system-wide improvements, including expanded treatment coverage, nutritional assistance, direct financial support to patients, wider active case-finding initiatives and adoption of rapid molecular diagnostics. These efforts have strengthened detection, shortened diagnostic delays, and improved survival outcomes. Dr. Pinto acknowledges that such progress deserves recognition and may help the country accelerate further declines in the coming years.

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Still, the scale of the challenge remains vast. India continues to account for more than 25% of the world's incident TB cases, and the country's incidence rate remains significantly higher than that of China and several other high-burden nations. As Dr. Pinto highlights, achieving the WHO's 2030 benchmark will require “stronger efforts" and “exponentially" increased funding, reinforcing the need for sustained political will, community-level engagement, and long-term investment.

For now, India's declining TB numbers offer cautious optimism but also a reminder that the fight against tuberculosis demands urgency, innovation, and relentless commitment. The country has taken meaningful steps forward; the question is whether it can now quicken the pace.

Source: News18
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