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India's Q2 GDP Likely To Have Grown At Robust 7%, Says ICRA; Official Data Next Week
India's Q2 GDP Likely To Have Grown At Robust 7%, Says ICRA; Official Data Next Week
India's economic growth continues to remain strong in the July-September quarter, with rating agency ICRA projecting GDP expansion at a robust 7% year-on-year. India's gross value added (GVA) is also estimated to grow 7.1%, even as the industry is set for its strongest showing in five quarters. The official GDP data for Q2 FY26 is expected to be released on November 28.
India's GDP had grown at 7.8% in the previous quarter (Q1 FY26), while GVA expanded at 7.6%.
Industrial activity, however, is poised for a noticeable rebound. ICRA pegs industrial GVA growth at 7.8%, supported by stronger manufacturing output, higher exports and pre-festive inventory stocking. Manufacturing growth, measured through the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), rose to a seven-quarter high of 4.9% in Q2, aided by GST-linked demand impulses and improved export performance. Merchandise exports grew 8.9% in the quarter, driven by both petroleum and non-oil shipments, with electronic goods leading at 34.3%.
However, the services sector, which had expanded 9.3% in Q1, is likely to grow at 7.4% in Q2 amid lower government spending and a slowdown in services exports. Agriculture GVA is expected to rise 3.5%, broadly unchanged from the previous quarter, with erratic rains and localised flooding affecting crop conditions in several regions.
“The YoY expansion in India's services exports eased to 8.7% in Q2 FY2026 (absolute: $101.6 billion) from 10.1% in Q1 FY2026 ($97.4 billion), the slowest pace of growth in six quarters. Overall, ICRA estimates the YoY growth in the services GVA to moderate to 7.4% in Q2 FY2026 from the eight-quarter high of 9.3% in Q1 FY2026, dampened by the lower expansion in Government spending and services exports. Although the early onset of the monsoons and abundant rains supported kharif sowing, episodes of flooding in some parts of the country in August-September 2025 and untimely rains in October 2025 may have damaged the standing crops and/or delayed harvesting. While kharif sowing exceeded last year's acreage, the adverse base is anticipated to keep the agri-GVA expansion at around 3.5% in Q2 FY2026 (+4.1% in Q2 FY2025), similar to 3.7% in Q1 FY2026 (+1.5% in Q1 FY2025)," ICRA said.
Government Spending Moderates
ICRA noted a clear slowdown in fiscal support during the quarter. The Centre's non-interest revenue expenditure contracted 11.2% year-on-year in Q2 after expanding in Q1. For 22 major state governments, similar expenditure grew 5.3%, half the pace recorded in the April–June period.
Capital expenditure trends were mixed. The Centre's capex rose 30.7% in Q2 on a high base, while states' combined capex contracted 4.6% due to an unfavourable comparison with last year. Still, the monthly average capex rose for both the Centre and states compared to Q1, showing resilient infrastructure activity despite heavy monsoons.
Festive Demand to Support Manufacturing
Aditi Nayar, chief economist and head of research & outreach at ICRA, said growth in Q2 has been shaped by subdued government spending but boosted by manufacturing momentum tied to the early festive season, GST-driven volume pick-up and exporters front-loading shipments to the US before tariff deadlines.
“A lower YoY rise in government spending is likely to weigh on the pace of the GDP and GVA growth in Q2 FY2026 compared to Q1 FY2026. However, inventory stocking related to the early onset of the festive season, enhanced by the GST-rationalisation induced volume pick-up, and upfronting of exports to the US ahead of the tariffs, are expected to boost the performance of the manufacturing sector, and help industry GVA growth outpace that of the services after a gap of four quarters," Nayar said.
She added that GDP growth may dip below 7% in the second half of FY26 unless the Centre steps up capital expenditure and global tariff-related uncertainties ease.
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Sectoral Picture: Construction, Mining, Power Stable
Construction activity appears to have remained firm through seasonal disruptions, with GVA growth expected to inch up to 8%. Mining and electricity output is also likely to post mild improvements on favourable base effects, according to ICRA.
Source: News18
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