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India’s bare PCB manufacturing set for 45% CAGR surge
India's domestic manufacturing of bare printed circuit boards (PCBs) is poised to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 45% through FY29, driven by demand from the electronics industry, government incentives and a shift toward high-value complex PCBs, Avendus Capital said in a report.
The bare PCB market in India currently is worth $5 billion, with an 88% import dependence. Domestic production is expected to expand from $0.6 billion in fiscal 2024 to $3.8 billion by FY29, reducing the dependence on supplies from abroad to 69%, the financial services firm said in the report.
This trajectory aligns with overall electronics production growing at 25% CAGR to $450 billion by FY30, fuelled by domestic consumption, exports and reliance on imports reducing from 53% to 40%, it said.
India's large and rising electronics trade deficit, estimated to be $54 billion in FY24, is forcing a deeper push into components, not just finished products, even as device-level electronics demand grows 10-11% annually and components expand closer to 20%, Chirag Shah, principal at Avendus Capital, told ET.
“India has already cracked the code on assembly; the game is now shifting to higher-margin, higher-capex components, where technology, scale, customer approvals and balance sheet strength become critical,” he said.
Demand for complex multilayer (ML) and flexible PCBs will lead, with 27% and 30% CAGR, respectively, by value, as miniaturisation and sector-specific needs like automotive and telecom intensify, the report said. While a basic single-layer PCB may realise about $40 per sq metre, multilayer boards can fetch up to $500 and flex PCBs up to $350.
The Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS), notified in March this year with a $2.6 billion outlay, has approved $1.5 billion in investments across 24 projects, targeting $12 billion in production and 17,000 jobs over five years. ECMS is turnover-linked rather than capex-linked, which means companies need to ramp production, secure customer approvals and start billing quickly before incentive flows kick in, Shah said.
Anti-dumping duties, PLI schemes, and state incentives cover up to 55-60% of capital costs, enabling high return on capital employed of around 18%-20% for scaled players even at conservative margins, the report said.
These measures complement earlier initiatives like SPECS (Scheme for Promotion of Manufacturing of Electronic Components and Semiconductors) and EMC (Electronics Manufacturing Clusters) 2.0, shifting focus from assembly to components like bare PCBs, laminates, and camera modules. Shah said policy support has deliberately moved “from final-product assembly to sub-assemblies and now to components” and is likely to push further backward into substrates, laminates, chemicals and copper clads as the ecosystem matures.
Domestic firms ramping up production include Amber, which plans Rs 4,200 crore capex for ML and HDI PCBs in Hosur and Greater Noida by FY28. Kaynes is targeting Rs 1,800 crore for HDI/ML in Chennai, while Syrma SGS has announced an Rs 1,800 crore investment for ML and copper clad laminates in Naidupeta, Andhra Pradesh.
"India is clearly entering the next phase of electronics manufacturing, where depth of capability matters as much as scale," Syrma SGS managing director Jasbir Singh Gujral said.
Existing players like AT&S India, Shogini Technoarts and Epitome Components are pivoting to high-realisation ML/flex segments ($350-500/sqm versus $30-40 for single-sided), countering low-cost Chinese imports, Avendus said in its report. This focus creates entry barriers through technology, skilled labour and lengthy customer qualifications, it said.
Indian PCB makers are stitching technology and offtake tie-ups with global specialists, such as IL JIN Electronics' partnership with Korea Circuit, to de-risk capacity ramp-up, improve utilisation from day one and accelerate eligibility for turnover-linked incentives, Shah said.
In high-value PCBs, the main barrier is not capex but the multi-stage, design-led approval cycle, often solved via acquiring smaller domestic PCB firms that already hold auto, telecom, mobile or defence approvals, he said.
According to the report, volume demand will rise to 70 million sqm by FY29 (11% CAGR), but value growth accelerates via complexity, with domestic penetration jumping 2.4-fold to around 31%. As EMS share in electronics hits 30% by FY30, bare PCBs emerge as a sunrise sector building India's electronics backbone, it said.
Source: EconomicTimes
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