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If Rafale, Su-30MKI And Tejas Were Never Inducted, Where Would IAF Be Today?
If Rafale, Su-30MKI And Tejas Were Never Inducted, Where Would Indian Air Force Be Today?
Over the past two decades, the IAF has watched several fighter jets retire, while very few new aircraft joined the fleet. After the Sukhoi-30MKI, the Air Force did not receive a large batch of new fighters for years.
New Delhi: On September 25, 2025, the Indian Air Force (IAF) placed an order for 97 additional Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk-1A at an estimated cost of Rs 62,370 crore. This became the fourth major order for the Tejas programme and signalled a new push to strengthen India's military inventory with indigenously developed platforms.
As these aircraft are inducted in phases over the coming years, the Tejas is expected to emerge as the backbone of India's air power. With a total planned strength of 220 aircraft, it will become the second-largest fighter fleet in the IAF after the Sukhoi-30MKI.
This has triggered a debate within defence circles about what India's air defence posture would look like today without the French Rafale, the Russian-origin Su-30MKI and the homegrown Tejas, and how the country would have maintained credible deterrence against complex adversaries such as Pakistan and China.
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According to a report published by the Observer Research Foundation, the LCA programme was conceived in the early 1980s as a replacement for the MiG-21 series and the ageing Ajit fighter aircraft. The project faced long delays during development and induction, but it has now become an answer to the IAF's shrinking squadron strength.
Over time, the IAF's outlook towards the Tejas has changed noticeably. In its early years, the aircraft was viewed with hesitation, largely because it did not fully meet the Air staff requirements. This perception changed decisively in 2021, when the IAF placed its first large order for 83 LCA Tejas Mk-1A fighters worth Rs 48,000 crore. That deal is seen as a landmark moment in the history of India's defence aerospace sector.
The decision to induct the Tejas in large numbers was driven by necessity. Both the Air Force leadership and the Defence Ministry were under pressure to address a growing shortfall while exploring options through imports and domestic production.
Beyond the rising acceptance of the Tejas, the IAF also had to confront a numerical reality. Squadron strength has fallen to around 29, far below the sanctioned level of 42 squadrons. The recent retirement of the entire MiG-21 fleet has further widened this gap. In this context, inducting the Tejas in substantial numbers became essential.
One of the biggest reasons behind the decline in fighter squadrons has been the collapse of the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, which was stuck for nearly two decades. Despite plans to induct over 100 modern fighters under this programme, not a single aircraft from that process entered the IAF service.
Although 36 Rafale jets were inducted through a government-to-government agreement in 2016, the overall fighter strength continued to erode over the years. Recent media reports suggest that the IAF has submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry to procure 114 additional Rafale fighters through a similar government-to-government route, instead of an open tender.
Given Dassault Aviation's existing order book and production capacity, it could take at least a decade for fresh Rafale orders to translate into operational aircraft built in India. A similar timeline applies to other global original equipment manufacturers, many of whom are already stretched by existing commitments.
This has placed the IAF in a difficult position, compounded by India's slow and complex defence procurement processes. Procuring additional Su-30MKI fighters is an alternative pathway. However, the Air Force is primarily seeking medium-weight aircraft to keep operating costs low and readiness high. The Su-30MKI does not fit neatly into this requirement.
The original MMRCA plan envisioned the induction of over 100 aircraft, but the programme has stayed trapped in procedural complexity for years. Adding to the challenge, delays in engine supplies from US-based General Electric have emerged as a bottleneck.
In this scenario, the LCA Tejas stands out as the only viable short-term solution to arrest the worrying decline in squadron strength. At the same time, it strengthens India's capacity-building efforts and self-reliance in the defence aerospace sector, making it far more than just a stopgap for the Indian Air Force.
Source: ZeeNews
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