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Explained: How US policy is reshaping Kurdish politics across the Middle East
Explained: How US policy is reshaping Kurdish politics across the Middle East
The US decision to back Damascus and tell Syria's Kurds their partnership had “expired” has shattered Kurdish trust in Washington across the Middle East. From Syria to Iraq, Turkiye, and Iran, Kurdish groups are now reshaping alliances and strategies around the belief that US support is unreliable and temporary.
When the United States told Syria's Kurds that their partnership had “expired”, it landed less like a policy update and more like a betrayal. The message came at the worst possible moment, amid violent clashes between Kurdish forces and the Syrian army, and it carried a clear implication --- Washington was no longer standing with the Kurds, but with Damascus.
For Kurds across the Middle East, watching from Syria, Iraq, Turkiye and Iran, the meaning was unmistakable. The US, once seen as a reluctant but useful ally, is now widely viewed as unreliable, particularly when it comes to protecting minority partners under pressure.
That shift is already changing Kurdish political calculations across the region.
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US backing for Damascus under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has revived one of the Kurds' deepest anxieties --- the return of a strong, centralised Syrian state. For Kurdish communities, this is not an abstract concern but a lesson drawn from decades of experience.
Centralised states in the Middle East have consistently marginalised Kurdish populations, suppressing their language, identity and political rights. Syria, under the Assad regime, was a clear example. Kurds were not recognised as a distinct group, the Kurdish language and names were banned from public life, and large numbers were denied citizenship altogether.
Al-Sharaa has taken small steps to signal change. His presidential decree of 16 January promised limited rights, and the 30 January agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) included cautious recognition of Kurdish collective identity. The reference to “Kurdish regions” was particularly striking, a language that had long been absent from official Syrian discourse.
Yet these gains are modest and fragile. They are unfolding within a transitional framework that ultimately aims to reassert central authority. For Syrian Kurds, the fear is not what is promised today, but what may be withdrawn tomorrow.
Most Kurdish groups now agree that armed resistance is not a realistic option. But trust in Washington has been badly damaged, and any future engagement with the US will be approached with deep scepticism.
In Iraq, US policy in Syria is feeding into a broader political realignment. After years of rivalry and mistrust, Shia and Kurdish actors are finding common ground, not because of shared ideology, but because of shared fears.
In 2003, their alliance was built on a shared past under Saddam Hussein. Today, it is shaped by a shared concern about future marginalisation in a volatile region.
This shift is visible both among political elites and within the wider public. For the first time in years, many Iraqi Kurds are no longer enthusiastic about regime change in Iran, a position that would have been unthinkable only weeks ago.
The change was underscored when Iraq's Shia Coordination Framework nominated Nouri al-Maliki for prime minister last month. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the dominant Kurdish force, openly welcomed the move.
This support was not driven solely by anger over US actions in Syria. It also reflected internal Kurdish politics. The KDP is locked in a rivalry with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over Iraq's presidency, a post reserved for Kurds. Backing al-Maliki strengthens the KDP's hand in Baghdad.
From Washington's perspective, a KDP-aligned Kurdistan Regional Government working closely with an al-Maliki-led administration may complicate US efforts to limit Iranian influence in Iraq. But Kurdish leaders argue that their position cannot be understood without accounting for US behaviour in Syria. In Kurdish eyes, Washington has not acted as a neutral broker.
For much of the past year, many believed Turkiye's talks with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) depended heavily on developments in Syria and the future of the SDF. The clashes between Damascus, backed by Ankara and Washington, and the SDF appeared to put that process at risk. Yet, unexpectedly, negotiations have not collapsed.
Instead, the two tracks seem to be treated separately. Talks with the PKK are likely to continue inside Turkiye, and PKK leaders have not turned their frustration over the weakening of the SDF into a blanket rejection of dialogue with Ankara.
A key reason is that the SDF has not been completely dismantled, leaving enough space to keep diplomatic channels open.
Iranian Kurds, though geographically distant from Syria, have drawn their own conclusions. The sidelining of the SDF reinforced their view that US support for minorities is unpredictable and transactional.
Despite ongoing US rhetoric against Tehran, Iranian Kurdish groups have deliberately avoided leading recent protests or allowing themselves to be used by Western media. This restraint is striking.
There is little enthusiasm for a return of Reza Pahlavi, who enjoys backing from Washington. For many Kurds, the memory of the shah's repression remains fresh, and Western-based opposition groups have offered no credible guarantees on Kurdish rights.
Some Iran-based Kurdish armed groups operating from Iraq have carried out limited attacks near the border. But the main actors have avoided escalation. Their calculations are shaped by uncertainty over US and Israeli end goals, and by the knowledge that any serious confrontation would likely trigger Iranian retaliation against Iraqi Kurds.
Each time Washington abandons a Kurdish partner, it weakens the trust that underpins its influence on the ground. Syrian and Iraqi Kurds have learned to live with American unpredictability, but that tolerance has limits.
If the remaining confidence finally breaks, the consequences will extend far beyond Kurdish politics. The US may find that, when it next looks for partners in the region, fewer are willing to believe that its commitments will last.
Source: ZeeNews
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