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Higher prices could last for eight months after Iran war
People in the UK could face higher energy, food, and flight ticket prices for at least eight months after the end of the US-Israel war with Iran, a senior minister has said.
Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, told the BBC the government was "looking at all of those things" as it steps up plans to offset potential food and fuel shortages caused by the war.
Energy production and transportation across the Middle East has slowed or stopped entirely due to the conflict, causing supply chain issues and price rises globally.
Earlier this month, government officials drew up a worst case scenario of food shortages by the summer, including chicken and pork, should the war continue.
The government has also been seeking to calm the public, urging drivers to keep filling up with petrol and using cars as usual and not to change their travel plans amid fears over potential jet fuel shortages.
Speaking on the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Jones said he was looking at the economic impact of the war "in a lot of detail", but said that "price pressure" was more likely than gaps on supermarket shelves.
"Our best guess is eight plus months from the point of resolution that you'll see economic impacts coming through the system," he said.
So people will see higher energy prices, food prices [...] flight ticket prices as a consequence of what Donald Trump has done in the Middle East.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will chair another meeting of a Cabinet committee on Tuesday set up to deal with any shortfalls, while a group of ministers is meeting twice a week to monitor stock levels and any disruptions to the supply chain.
Twice weekly meetings of the contingency planning group of ministers are being led by Jones.
He has previously said: "This is not our war. The government made the right call to stay out of the conflict and only take defensive action to protect Britain's interests.
We're acting now to prepare for, and mitigate where possible, the impact on our economy and domestic security as a result of the conflict.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted the energy shock from the war would hit the UK the hardest of the world's advanced economies, and cut its estimate for UK growth this year from to 0.8% from its previous prediction of 1.3%.
Jones has previously said that while the government would do everything in its power to find a permanent solution to the crisis and offset its impact, "what happens abroad will still affect us here at home".
A government source previously told the BBC it was planning for a scenario which would involve breakdowns in the supply of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in the slaughter of some animals and in food preservation, should the strait remain closed.
The government has provided funding to reactivate the Ensus bioethanol plant, which makes CO2 as a by-product, in order to shore up supplies of the gas.
A spokesperson for the plant told the BBC they were "confident we can continue to produce CO2 for the country's needs for the foreseeable future".
Jones told the BBC on Sunday he had raised the issue of UK pubs potentially running out of draught beer during the Men's Football World Cup in the summer due to a shortage of CO2.
"We are doing everything we can to make sure that is not the case," he said.
The majority of the UK's CO2 is imported from Europe but it is often produced as a by-product when companies make fertiliser, which needs natural gas.
Supermarkets have said they are working with the government to help plan for a worst-case scenario.
And, last month, the National Farmers' Union said cucumber and tomato prices could rise over the next six weeks, with the cost of other crops and milk increasing in the next three to six months.
UK airlines have insisted they are "not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel" as they buy it in advance and airports maintain stocks.
The Liberal Democrats have urged the government to include a bill in the next King's Speech which puts food security at the top of the government's agenda.
The party's Cabinet Office spokeswoman Lisa Smart said "the government also needs to wake up and provide more support to people who simply cannot afford the sky-high cost of getting around".
She added that the Lib Dems have proposed a 10p cut on fuel duty as well as reducing public transport costs.
Iran's top negotiator said earlier this week that reopening the Strait of Hormuz was "impossible" if the US continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
US President Donald Trump hopes to put pressure on Iran by targeting two economic drivers - the tolls the country was demanding ships pay to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's oil revenue.
Iran has responded by calling the blockade "piracy". Negotiators from the country were in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday for talks on ending the conflict.
Source: BBC
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