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GCCs brace for near-term hit as war clouds gather over Gulf biz
The global capability centre (GCC) ecosystem in India may face a short-term setback due to the , but is expected to benefit in the long run as the country offers a stable security and policy environment for businesses to operate, said experts.
Multinationals such as , , Intel, , , DHL, Nokia, HP, PepsiCo, Emerson, Lenovo, Johnson Controls and Eaton have GCC presence in both India and the Middle East, spanning sectors from technology and semiconductors to logistics, healthcare, manufacturing and financial services. Security concerns are unlikely to disappear even if the current military strikes end, and this could force MNCs to rethink their regional expansion blueprints, experts told ET.
While MNCs might slow down new investments while weighing security threats, some of them could exit high-risk geographies and in turn fast-track GCC setup or expansion in India, making the country the most immediate beneficiary of the Gulf's disruption, they said. But any global slowdown due to a prolonged war and the impact on oil supplies and price could weigh on technology budgets of MNCs and affect the sector in India as well.
“The Gulf was not yet a significant nearshore base, but it was getting there fast,” said Pareekh Jain, CEO of EIIRTrend, which tracks engineering, IoT and R&D sectors.
Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar had been aggressively diversifying beyond oil into finance, technology, AI, travel and manufacturing, attracting global firms that were beginning to factor the region into their operational plans. The conflict could affect at least some of those efforts.
But global instability and uncertainty will impact or delay their GCC plans in India as well, as their immediate priorities will be elsewhere, he said. “This could be negative for GCCs in India for the short term.”
GCC operators told ET that it was too early to assess the full impact with the conflict having erupted two days ago. Industry body Nasscom said in a statement that operations across the industry were continuing as usual. It has advised member companies to defer travel to affected areas and enable work from home arrangements for employees currently in the region.
The near-term disruption expected is due to delays in decision-making, said experts.
“There were zero greenfield GCCs from the Gulf or the Middle East in India in 2025 and established energy sector GCCs like those of Shell and BP would not suddenly expand in India because of short-term demand or pricing shifts,” said Gaurav Vasu, CEO of UnearthInsight. The bigger question is what happens to the expansion plans of global multinationals that had been building out in both regions simultaneously, he said.
Tech policy analyst Subimal Bhattacharjee said disruptions to business continuity in the Gulf might trigger a temporary freeze on GCC investment and hiring decisions as parent organisations evaluate their risk exposure. “Global delivery chains would be impacted to various degrees and Indian GCC firms could be busier,” he said, as global companies look to India to absorb workload and step into a more direct client facing role than before.
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India is home to more than 1,800 GCCs. These centres employed over 1.9 million people and generated $64.6 billion in revenue in fiscal 2024. The sector is projected to hit $110 billion in revenue by 2030.
“They might re-evaluate their plans and could double down on India for GCC,” Jain said, adding that India remained one of the most stable destinations for global investment at a time when Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Middle East are all facing instability.
The macro environment adds additional pressure. As reported by ET earlier, disruptions to maritime traffic on the Strait of Hormuz and rising crude prices are already squeezing enterprise technology budgets globally.
“Global and Indian IT services (growth) could slow down to 2-3% for FY27,” Vasu said, compared with the earlier projections of 4-5%. Slower decision-making and delayed tech budgets would directly weigh on GCC investment pipelines.
The next 30-60 days are critical, Bhattacharjee said. If the conflict stays contained, India’s could come out of this stronger as global firms look to reduce exposure to high-risk geographies and accelerate their India plans. A prolonged oil shock or sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure, however, could trigger a broader macro slowdown and put India’s $110 billion GCC ambition under serious pressure.
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Source: EconomicTimes
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