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England's chance is now: Perth, the Optus & Ashes
A sunny Saturday morning in Perth, at picturesque Lilac Hill, with an expectation of bad news.
There was even advance warning from England that an announcement concerning Mark Wood was due - not usually a sign of optimism.
Bad news would arrive, just not on the English side of the Ashes divide. Exactly 86 minutes after Wood was cleared following concerns over a hamstring injury, Australia's Josh Hazlewood was ruled out of Friday's first Test with a dodgy hammy of his own. Hazlewood was hamstrung, Wood hamstrong.
The ripple of shock went around the white picket fences of Lilac Hill, rendering the on-field action of England's warm-up match against England Lions inconsequential compared with the action of hamstring scanners in various parts of Australia.
Hazlewood joins captain Pat Cummins on the sidelines, two-thirds of Australia's big three pacers absent from the series opener at Optus Stadium.
Before we hand the urn to Ben Stokes, remember Hazlewood missed four Tests in the last Ashes played in this country in 2021-22. Cummins also missed one. Australia won 4-0.
In home Tests played without both Cummins and Hazlewood in the XI, the Aussies have not lost in 13 years.
Still, this is not the Australia of four years ago. Older, and with questions about the make-up of their team, the hosts will find it harder to absorb the absence of two thoroughbred fast bowlers. Australia could field any one from about six different XIs, none of which seem entirely satisfactory.
It is a gilt-edged opportunity England simply cannot afford to miss.
That is not to say Australia are suddenly there for the taking. The hosts remain favourites because they have some very fine cricketers and do not lose at home very often.
And it is not much of a leap to say this is England's best chance to win the urn in Australia for 14 years, as 13 defeats and two draws in 15 Tests since 2010-11 are a low barrier to success.
In order to regain the Ashes, England have no choice but to start well. Reversing momentum is rarely achieved in Australia, so a 2023-style comeback is much harder. The second Test is a day-nighter and the Aussies, led by pink-ball genius Mitchell Starc, hardly ever lose under floodlights.
Given their depletion, imagine the boost Australia would gain by winning the first Test, especially with skipper Cummins on track to return for the second. Consider the foreboding for England if they were to lose.
Ten names look inked onto the England first-Test teamsheet. The decision will be over Wood, whom England were desperate – and may still be – to unleash on a spicy Optus Stadium surface.
It may seem ludicrous to risk a fast bowler with the injury history of a crash-test dummy when his first attempt at cricket in whites for 15 months resulted in a trip to hospital.
There would be logic in taking that risk. England look set on a five-man pace attack for the first Test, so there would be protection for Wood from four other seamers. It is arguably a greater risk to field him later in the series, when the need for a front-line spinner would remove a pace option.
The debate around England's method of preparation, a gentle three-dayer against the Lions, will only be settled by the outcome of the Ashes series.
Much of the conversation centred on the quantity of warm-up matches, rather than the quality. In the circumstances, England felt a controlled environment against the Lions was the best they could do. They are probably right, given the best Australian domestic cricketers are busy in the Sheffield Shield.
The problem is Lilac Hill is so different from Optus Stadium it might as well be on a different planet.
At the Optus, a spicy pitch will be surrounded by 60,000 baying Australians. At Lilac Hill, a dead surface was observed by a smattering of polite onlookers, most of them ex-pats. The only abuse was a rude word shouted by the driver of a passing ute.
If this is the best quality England can get, increasing the quantity would have been pointless.
Lessons were still learned. Spinners Shoaib Bashir and Will Jacks are off the pace in their return from a broken finger apiece.
In Bashir's case, woefully so. His 24 overs - more than any other bowler in the match - went for an eye-watering 151 runs. Jacks improved as the game progressed and bowled Joe Root with a beauty on the final afternoon. He could even be ahead of Bashir in the pecking order and would be an option at number eight.
England may play five seamers in each of the first two Tests but will need a spinner eventually, so Bashir and Jacks should be sent for overs in the Lions games taking place over the following two weekends.
The player to benefit most was Ollie Pope, who might have felt vulnerable after he was replaced as vice-captain. Pope was endorsed before the tour match by captain Stokes and assistant coach Marcus Trescothick, and responded with scores of 100 and 90. He looked calm and classy, recognising the opportunity for valuable practice.
A second-innings 70 came too late for Jacob Bethell to challenge Pope. Bethell had opportunities in the white-ball series in New Zealand and failed to take them.
Now, an Ashes appearance for the Warwickshire man would mean something has gone wrong: results, form or an injury.
Pope's replacement as vice-captain, Harry Brook, did not bat like a man with a new-found sense of responsibility. Some players simply cannot raise themselves in low-key cricket and Brook showed little regard for the exercise. No one will remember if he scores runs in the first Test, but he has invited pressure that need not have been there.
Stokes is another whose lack of enthusiasm for warm-ups means he often does not play.
This week there was a necessity, following four months out with a shoulder injury. The captain looked laser-focused. Supremely fit, he bowled 16 overs and found his batting rhythm with 84 in the first innings.
If Stokes is England's talisman, Jofra Archer is their trump card. The paceman was also dialled in to his task at Lilac Hill, getting the ball to jump off the unresponsive surface.
On the day before the match, as most of the England team made their way to the golf course, Archer was asked if he would be playing a few holes. He made the face of a child being made to eat his broccoli. "No, pool," was his reply.
On the second evening, he removed his shirt outside the dressing room to reveal a torso of muscles on top of muscles. The gaps between the first three Tests are kind to fast bowlers. This could be the time for the Jofra Archer for whom England fans have longed.
Beyond the Ashes squad, some Lions batters caught the eye. Ben McKinney and Jordan Cox both made half-centuries in each innings. They are the next cabs off the rank. Thomas Rew made a half-century at the age of 17.
Those names are for the future.
England's opportunity is now: Perth, the Optus and the Ashes.
Source: BBC
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