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US Inflation Climbs As Tariffs Bite, Jobless Claims Surge To 3-Year High; Fed Faces Stagflation Test
US Inflation Climbs As Tariffs Bite, Jobless Claims Surge To 3-Year High; Fed Faces Stagflation Test
Inflation in the United States accelerated in August, unsettling policymakers just days before the Federal Reserve's critical rate meeting. Consumer prices rose 2.9 percent year-on-year, according to Labor Department data released Thursday, up from 2.7 percent in July and marking the steepest annual increase since January. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, held steady at 3.1 percent. Both figures remain well above the Fed's 2 percent target, highlighting the persistence of price pressures despite nearly two years of monetary tightening.
The increases were widespread across categories. Grocery prices climbed 0.6 percent month-on-month, with coffee up 21 percent and beef steaks 17 percent compared to last year. Gasoline costs rose 1.9 percent from July, while airfares and hotel charges also spiked. Clothing, furniture and rents continued to edge higher, pointing to broad-based consumer cost pressures.
A separate Labor Department report added to the gloom by revealing a deterioration in the labour market. Weekly applications for unemployment aid surged by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since 2021 and the sharpest weekly increase in nearly four years. The rise is viewed as a proxy for layoffs and came alongside downward revisions to earlier jobs data. Payroll estimates for May and June were cut by a combined 258,000 positions, showing that hiring has been weaker than initially thought.
Daniel Hornung of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research told The Wall Street Journal that the troubling mix of rising inflation and a weakening job market “is a pretty compelling weakening."
The combination of stronger inflation and weaker jobs rekindled fears of stagflation, a toxic mix of rising prices and slowing growth not seen since the 1970s. Normally, inflation cools when economic activity slows, but tariff-driven cost increases are disrupting that relationship. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told WSJ that tariffs are not hitting consumers all at once, but “if you look at the overall trend, you're still seeing goods prices go up."
Economists argue that this unusual mix of higher costs and weaker hiring leaves the Fed trapped between conflicting goals: bringing down inflation while trying to protect jobs.
Much of the current price pressure stems from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff regime, with businesses gradually passing these costs on to consumers. Large retailers such as Walmart have warned of steeper price hikes as inventories turn over, while smaller businesses are struggling to absorb the impact.
Raleigh restaurateur Cheetie Kumar told the Associated Press that her food costs are up nearly 10 percent compared to last year, with spices and chocolate registering triple-digit increases. She has raised menu prices but admitted, “I'm at the limit of how much I can do before demand wanes." Even larger companies are not immune. E.L.F. Cosmetics increased prices by $1 earlier this year, but its chief financial officer Mandy Fields acknowledged the move may not be enough to offset tariff-related pressures, AP reported.
The Federal Reserve now faces one of its toughest balancing acts in years. Markets tracked by CME FedWatch put the odds of a September rate cut at 85 percent, with investors expecting additional cuts later this year. Equities have already responded positively, with US stocks hitting record highs this week.
Still, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sounded cautious. Speaking at Jackson Hole, he warned that conditions “may warrant adjusting our policy stance." While inflation remains a concern, Powell also emphasized that “downside risks to employment are rising," with layoffs potentially accelerating further. Traditionally, the Fed raises rates to cool inflation and cuts them to support jobs. The current mix of higher inflation alongside weaker hiring is pulling policymakers in opposite directions.
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Wall Street is betting that the Fed will lower its short-term rate from 4.3 percent to 4.1 percent next week and follow up with further cuts later this year. However, many economists caution that easing policy in the face of tariff-driven inflation could backfire. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told the Associated Press that the Fed is in “a very unusual spot," preparing to cut into “a sustained increase in prices" driven by tariffs and continued consumer spending among wealthier households.
Others are more optimistic. Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale, noted that service costs are beginning to moderate and may help offset some of the inflationary effects of tariffs.
Source: News18
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