The Delhi High Court has stayed proceedings in a criminal defamation case filed against Sudarshan TV and its editor Suresh Chavhanke in connection with allegations that his channel made false accusations against a madrasa. The case against Chavhanke was filed by Mohammed Tufail Khan
China said on Sunday (August 23, 2026) it was postponing its planned ambitious Chang'e-7 lunar mission, which was set to carry out explorations including searching for water ice on the moon. The Chang'e-7 spacecraft was originally set to lift off in the coming days from the Wenchang Space Launch
Canada’s Carney Puts His ‘No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal’ Doctrine to the Test The prime minister ’s approach has broad support from the Canadian public and his political opponents, but it isn’t without risks. Published on: Aug 24, 2026, 14:05:27 IST WSJ Prefer HTon Google Share via
A group of former cricket captains, including Indian batting legend Sunil Gavaskar and one of England's longest-serving skippers Sir Alastair Cook, have called on Pakistan to ensure its ex-PM Imran Khan be given proper care while in custody. The cricketer-turned-politician has been in jail since
Fewer than 20 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz at the weekend, shipping data showed on Monday (August 24, 2026), as Iranian and U.S. blockades restrict traffic through the chokepoint for energy shipments. Four vessels crossed the strait on Sunday (August 23, 2026)
How the US war on Iran was driven by overconfidence from swift victory in Venezuela
Wars are rarely lost first on the battlefield. They are lost in leaders’ minds − when leaders misread what they and their adversaries can do, when their confidence substitutes for comprehension, and when the last war is mistaken for the next one.
The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is not an anomaly. It is the latest entry in one of the oldest and most lethal traditions in international politics: the catastrophic gap between what leaders believe going in and what war actually delivers.
I’m a scholar of international security, civil wars and US foreign policy, and author of the book Dying by the Sword which examines why the United States repeatedly reaches for military solutions and why such interventions rarely produce durable peace. The deeper problem with the US war in Iran, as I see it, was overconfidence bred by recent success.
Before the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US escalated, Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed concerns about oil market disruption, noting that prices had barely moved during the 12-day war in June 2025 between Israel and Iran. Other senior officials agreed.
What followed was significant: Iranian-aimed missile and drone barrages against US bases, Arab capitals and Israeli population centers. Then Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes daily − not with a naval blockade, not with mines or massed anti-ship missiles, but with cheap drones.
A few strikes in the vicinity of the strait were enough. Insurers and shipping companies decided the transit was unsafe. Tanker traffic dropped to zero, although the occasional ship has made it through recently. Analysts are calling it the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s oil embargo.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has since vowed to keep the strait closed. US Sen Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, reported after a closed-door briefing that the administration had no plan for the strait and did not know how to get it safely back open.
With no embassy in Tehran since 1979, the US relies heavily for intelligence on CIA networks of questionable quality and Israeli assets who have their own country’s interests in mind. So the US did not anticipate that Iran had rebuilt and dispersed significant military capacity since June 2025, nor that it would strike neighbors across the region, including Azerbaijan, widening the conflict well beyond the Persian Gulf.
The war has since reached the Indian Ocean, where a US submarine sank an Iranian frigate 2,000 miles from the theater of war, off the coast of Sri Lanka – just days after the ship had participated in Indian navy exercises alongside 74 nations, including the US.
The diplomatic damage to Washington’s relationships with India and Sri Lanka, two countries whose cooperation is increasingly important as the United States seeks partners to manage and mitigate Iran’s blockade, was entirely foreseeable. Washington has put them in a difficult position, with India choosing diplomacy with Iran to secure passage for its vessels and Sri Lanka opting to retain its neutrality, underscoring its vulnerable position.
But US planners didn’t foresee any of this.
The swift military intervention by the US in Venezuela in January 2026 produced rapid results with minimal blowback − appearing to validate the administration’s faith in coercive action.
But clean victories are dangerous teachers.
They inflate what I call in my teaching the “hubris/humility index” − the more a leadership overestimates its own abilities, underestimates the adversary’s and dismisses uncertainty, the higher the score and the more likely disaster will ensue. Clean victories inflate the index precisely when scepticism is most needed, because they suggest the next adversary will be as manageable as the last.
Political scientist Robert Jervis demonstrated decades ago that misperceptions in international relations are not random but follow patterns. Leaders tend to project their own cost-benefit logic onto opponents who do not share it. They also fall into “availability bias,” allowing the most recent operation to stand in for the next.
The higher the hubris/humility index, the less likely there is to be the kind of strategic empathy that might ask: How does Tehran see this? What does a regime that believes its survival is at stake actually do? History shows that such a regime escalates, improvises and takes risks that appear irrational from an outside perspective but are entirely rational from within.
Recent cases reveal this unmistakable pattern.
American war planners believed material superiority would force the communists in Hanoi to surrender.
It didn’t.
American firepower alone didn’t lead to military defeat, much less political control. The Tet Offensive in 1968 – when North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces launched coordinated attacks across South Vietnam – shattered the official US narrative that the war was nearly won and that there was “light at the end of the tunnel”.
Athough the U.S. and South Vietnamese forces ultimately repelled the attacks, their scale and surprise caused the public not to trust official statements, accelerating the erosion of public trust and decisively turning American opinion against the war.
The US loss in Vietnam didn’t occur on a single battlefield, but through strategic and political unraveling. Despite overwhelming superiority, Washington was incapable of building a stable, legitimate South Vietnamese government or recognizing the grit and resilience of the North Vietnamese forces. Eventually, with mounting casualties and large-scale protests at home, U.S. forces withdrew, ceding control of Saigon to North Vietnamese forces in 1975.
The U.S. failure was conceptual and cultural, not informational. American analysts simply couldn’t picture the war from their opponent’s perspective.
The Soviet Union in Afghanistan in 1979 and the United States in Afghanistan after 2001 conducted two different wars but held the same deadly assumption: that external military force can quickly impose political order in a fractured society strongly resistant to foreign control.
In both cases, great powers believed their abilities would outweigh local complexities. In both cases, the war evolved faster − and lasted far longer − than their strategies could adapt.
This is the case that should most haunt Washington.
Ukraine demonstrated that a materially weaker defender can impose huge costs on a stronger attacker through battlefield innovation: cheap drones, decentralised adaptation, real-time intelligence, and the creative use of terrain and chokepoints to find asymmetrical advantages. The US watched it all unfold in real time for four years and helped pay for it.
Iran was also watching − and the Strait of Hormuz is the proof.
Iran didn’t need a navy to close the world’s most important energy chokepoint. It needed drones, the same cheap, asymmetric technology Ukraine has used to blunt Russia’s onslaught, deployed not on a land front but against the insurance calculus of the global shipping industry.
Washington, which had underwritten much of that playbook in Ukraine, apparently never asked the obvious question: What happens when the other side has been taking notes? That is not a failure of US intelligence. It is a failure of strategic imagination − exactly what the hubris/humility index is designed to highlight.
Iran does not need to defeat the US conventionally. It needs only to raise costs, exploit chokepoints and wait for a fracture among US allies and domestic political opposition to force a fake US declaration of victory or a genuine US withdrawal.
Notably, Iran has kept the strait selectively open to Turkish, Indian and Saudi vessels, rewarding neutral countries and punishing US allies, driving wedges through the coalition.
Historian Geoffrey Blainey famously argued that wars start when both sides hold incompatible beliefs about power and only end when reality forces those beliefs to align.
That alignment is now happening, at great cost, in the Persian Gulf and beyond. The Trump administration scored high on the hubris index at exactly the moment when it most needed humility.
Monica Duffy Toft is Professor of International Politics and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, The Fletcher School, Tufts University.
This article was first published on The Conversation.
Source: Scroll
Related Posts: World, us iran news, us iran latest news, us iran ceasefire, US afghanistan vietnam, United States, Iran, West Asia, Vietnam
India had asked the United States not to allow reporters to ask questions during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France in June, US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said on Saturday
8 hours ago
Former Australian captain Greg Chappell with the support of 20 other former international skippers appealed to the Pakistan Government led by Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, to provide ‘humane treatment and proper medical care’ for Imran Khan
11 hours ago
The shock resignation of Tata Sons chairman N Chandrasekaran earlier this month has left corporate India's top job vacant. But finding his successor will be no easy task for the country's most revered conglomerate, whose sprawling $300bn empire spans Jaguar Land Rover and Air India as well as
11 hours ago
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian defended a memorandum of understanding with the United States as the best way out of a stalled war. Meanwhile, the new head of the Islamic Republic's top security body warned, in a more forceful tone, of retaliation if neighbouring countries support U.S
11 hours ago
Authorities in China have launched an investigation into reports of formaldehyde being used to preserve the freshness of cabbages for human consumption. Officials in the northeastern Hebei province confirmed that they had verified footage showing individuals dipping cabbages in a solution before
11 hours ago
Three newborns died after a fire that broke out in the neonatal intensive care unit of a government hospital in Maharashtra’s Amravati district in the early hours of Monday, PTI reported. The fire broke out at the Amravati District Women’s Hospital around 3
11 hours ago
Imran's party demands immediate cardiac care for him at Shifa International Hospital Imran's party demands immediate cardiac care for him at Shifa International Hospital Published on: Aug 24, 2026, 11:10:49 IST PTI Prefer HTon Google Share via Copy link Islamabad
11 hours ago
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s three-day visit to New Delhi in July 2026 for the India-Japan summit appears to have elevated relations between the two Asian countries into a fresh phase of strategic expansion. Ties had already undergone a remarkable transformation over the past decade
11 hours ago
How well do COVID antivirals actually work? Not as well as we thought How well do COVID antivirals actually work? Not as well as we thought Published on: Aug 24, 2026, 11:11:50 IST PTI Prefer HTon Google Share via Copy link Sydeny, If you're aged over 70
11 hours ago
On Sunday, in a post on X, Wali said the audio contained "explosive evidence" and claimed that Brar admitted his gang had ordered Nijjar's killing, alleging that the assassination was driven by an inter-gang feud. Ottawa: Three years after NIA designated terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar was killed in
14 hours ago
Until recently, there would have been little to distinguish Vietnam's so-called Justice Tree from the hundreds of others lining the streets of Hanoi. Then the bouquets started piling up. It was here that former politician Nguyen Sy Cuong was driving his BMW in May last year when he veered into the
14 hours ago
Fast-fashion giant Shein says it plans to raise up to HK13.86bn (£1.3bn; $1.77bn) when its shares start trading on the Hong Kong stock market on 1 September. In a filing on Monday, Shein said it will offer nearly 280 million shares for between HK$47.60 and HK$49.50
14 hours ago
A fast-moving, wind-driven wildfire near Reno, Nevada, has forced about 42,000 people to evacuate, while another 45,000 have been urged to prepare to leave. The Hawk Fire has burned 15,040 acres, destroyed some homes and injured six people. Officials declared a state of emergency as the blaze
14 hours ago
Former Indian diplomat Navdeep Suri has raised concerns about the verification process under the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. Suri, a retired Indian Foreign Services officer, went through the process in Punjab. It is among the 16 states where the voter roll revision is being
14 hours ago
A moderate earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.9 rattled eastern Japan, including the Tokyo area, early Sunday (August 23, 2026), injuring more than 20 people, most of them slightly, officials said. There was no danger of a tsunami. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency
1 days ago
Chinese humanoid robots broke records set by humans, including beating Usain Bolt’s 100-meter sprint world record, on the opening day of the Olympics-like World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing on Saturday (August 22, 2026). More than 2,000 humanoid robots were participating in the event
1 days ago
One afternoon in 1907, a young accountant named Chandrasekhar Venkata Raman walked into the laboratory of the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science at 210 Bowbazar Street in Calcutta. Though he had a passion for the sciences, colonial India offered no stable careers in the field
1 days ago
Three first information reports were filed against 14 identified and more than 200 unidentified persons on Saturday in connection with clashes between the police and student protesters a day earlier, PTI quoted Ranchi Superintendent of Police Paras Rana as saying
1 days ago
Did an Amazon delivery guy assault a 71-year-old man in California? What we know about the attack and lawsuit A California lawsuit alleged that an Amazon delivery driver assaulted a 71-year-old man at an Elk Grove gas station. Updated on: Aug 23, 2026
1 days ago
‘Pure evil’: Videos of mothers splashing water at their kids spark outrage amid Lindsay Clancy trial Social media videos of mothers throwing water at their children have sparked concerns amid Lindsay Clancy's trial. Published on: Aug 23, 2026
1 days ago
The sister of jailed former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Saturday (August 22, 2026) filed a petition in the Supreme Court, accusing the government and senior officials of violating the top court’s order to shift him to a private hospital for medical examination and treatment
1 days ago
The United States and Canada have entered into uncharted territory. The longtime allies and economic partners, who have enjoyed free trade for decades, are now in an escalating trade war with no clear off ramp. And for Prime Minister Mark Carney
1 days ago
Harrisburg weather update: Special Weather Statement issued for central Pennsylvania as thunderstorms bring 40mph wind NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for Harrisburg and surrounding parts of central Pennsylvania. Published on: Aug 23, 2026
1 days ago
The police in Maharashtra’s Latur have registered a first information report against Abhijeet Dipke, the founder of the Cockroach Janta Party political campaign, for allegedly entering a government school without permission, threatening teachers and defaming the institution
1 days ago
The United States and Iran exchanged defiant messages ahead of Monday’s (August 24, 2026) scheduled announcement of new U.S. economic sanctions that could impact the Islamic Republic and Tehran’s most important trading partners including China
1 days ago
Fourteen people were killed in military air strikes at a monastery in Myanmar early on Friday, opposition fighters and a local rescue worker have said. All of those killed were elderly and a number of monks were also injured, the rescue worker told BBC Burmese, adding that the site was struck twice
1 days ago
The Armed Forces Tribunal on Thursday upheld an administrative censure for a brigadier who was commanding a sector of the Rashtriya Rifles in Jammu and Kashmir’s Poonch district in December 2023 when three civilians died during an interrogation following a militant attack
1 days ago
