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After US-Iran ceasefire

After US-Iran ceasefire, World Bank raises India’s growth forecast, applauds economy – Here’s what it means
The World Bank has revised India’s growth forecast for 2026-27 to 6.6%, up from its previous estimate of 6.3%. The new projection is slightly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 6.9%.
New Delhi: Following the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Indian economy has got a boost. The World Bank on April 8 raised its growth forecast for the country in the fiscal year 2026-27. Previously, it had projected a 6.3% growth rate in October, which has now been increased to 6.6%. The revision is attributed to strong domestic demand and robust export performance.
The World Bank said, however, that disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East may slow growth slightly compared to past years.
According to the World Bank’s latest South Asia Economic Update, India’s economy is expected to grow at 7.6% in 2025-26, up from 7.1% in 2024-25. Strong domestic demand and exports are expected to continue supporting growth.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has a slightly higher projection for 2026-27, estimating growth at 6.9%.
The report says that recent cuts in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) are likely to boost consumer demand in the first half of 2026-27. Rising international energy prices, however, could push inflation higher and limit household spending power. Strong demand, stable food prices and rising energy costs could all contribute to higher inflation during the fiscal year.
Rising uncertainty and higher production costs could slow investment growth. While India’s exports may benefit from better access to markets such as the United States and the European Union, slower growth in major trading partners could offset some of these gains.
Long-term growth could be supported by free trade agreements, particularly with the EU and the United Kingdom, which may help increase consumption and real incomes across different income groups.
Across South Asia, GDP growth is expected to drop from 7% in 2025 to 6.3% in 2026, largely due to disruptions in international energy markets. India’s strong domestic demand and Sri Lanka’s economic recovery were main factors behind stronger-than-expected growth in 2025.
Some South Asian countries have faced mixed results in implementing industrial policies due to limited capacity, financial constraints and small market size.
Even with temporary slowdowns, South Asia is likely to grow faster than many other emerging markets, with India driving most of that growth. Strong domestic demand, tariff reductions and recent trade deals play a major role in this outlook.
The World Bank suggests policy reforms to sustain growth, create jobs and strengthen the economy. Improvements in public infrastructure, reducing trade barriers, creating a favorable business environment and mobilising private capital are considered essential.
Urban development, tourism and digital services are highlighted as sectors that could benefit from targeted policy support. Recommendations also include improving regulatory stability and government efficiency.
South Asian countries have implemented double the number of industrial policies compared to the average for other emerging markets, though outcomes have varied. India ranks among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of new industrial policies introduced between 2022 and 2025.
Updating India’s GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23 shows the economy was slightly smaller than previously estimated, but recent growth has been rapid.
The report also says that if South Asian countries implement structural reforms that increase growth by an additional 0.8%, they could reach high-income status sooner. Under this scenario, India could achieve it by 2047, Bangladesh by 2060, Sri Lanka by 2050 and Bhutan by 2042.
Industrial policy success in South Asia has been uneven due to limited implementation capacity and financial constraints, but carefully designed policies targeting specific economic challenges such as developing industrial parks, improving skills, expanding market access and raising export standards can be effective in driving growth.
Source: Zeenews.india.com
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