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Citi Cuts Nifty Target To 27,000 As Middle East War Turns Oil Shock Into Bigger Risk For India
Citi Cuts Nifty Target To 27,000 As Middle East War Turns Oil Shock Into Bigger Risk For India
The US–Israeli war with Iran, now entering its third week, has continued to disrupt global commodity, currency and equity markets
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Citi Research has lowered its year-end target for India’s Nifty 50, citing rising risks to economic growth and corporate earnings as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and threatens supply chains.
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The brokerage has cut its Nifty target to 27,000 from 28,500, implying about 17 percent upside from the index’s last closing level. Citi also reduced its valuation multiple for the index to 19 times one-year forward price-to-earnings, from 20 times earlier.
According to analysts led by Surendra Goyal at Citi Research, the extent of India’s fiscal and monetary response will depend on how long the conflict lasts and how severe the disruptions become. “The impact on earnings will largely depend on the duration of the supply shutdown,” the analysts said in a note on Monday.
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Citi estimates that if supply disruptions persist for three months, India’s FY27 GDP growth could decline by 20–30 basis points, while inflation may rise by 50–75 basis points. The situation could also widen the fiscal deficit by about 10 basis points and add roughly $25 billion to the current account deficit, the brokerage said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to remain on hold in its April policy meeting, though its stance may shift slightly toward supporting growth if fiscal measures absorb much of the inflationary impact, Citi added.
Also Read :Sensex, Nifty trade flat in early trade amid Middle East tensions
The US–Israeli war with Iran, now entering its third week, has continued to disrupt global commodity, currency and equity markets.
Indian markets have already reacted sharply. Both the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex entered technical correction territory last week, falling about 10 percent from their record highs. Since the conflict began, the indices have declined roughly 8 percent each, while the Indian rupee has slid to record lows.
Citi noted that the crisis is evolving from a simple energy price shock into a broader supply shock, with disruptions spreading across multiple commodities. These include LPG, LNG, fertilisers, petrochemicals and aluminium, potentially raising input costs and tightening supply for industries such as automobiles, construction, food processing, pharmaceuticals, paints and shipping.
Also Read :Oil prices climb nearly 4% amid escalating West Asia conflict
According to Citi, fertiliser and petrochemical sectors are particularly vulnerable due to India’s heavy dependence on imports from the Middle East.
The brokerage has also downgraded the auto sector to “neutral” from “overweight”, citing risks from rising crude and gas prices as well as potential supply disruptions linked to semiconductors.
As part of the revision, Mahindra & Mahindra has been removed from Citi’s list of top picks, while Mahanagar Gas has been dropped from its mid-cap preferred stocks.
Overall, Citi warned that prolonged geopolitical tensions could continue to pressure Indian equities if higher energy costs and supply disruptions begin to weigh more heavily on growth, earnings and inflation.
Source :News18.com
Source: OfficeNewz
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