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Carney under pressure at White House talks
Carney to meet Trump in search of 'best deal for Canada'
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to Washington for his second visit this year - this time with the more modest goal of getting trade talks back on track.
Negotiations have dragged on over the summer, blowing past an August deadline set by the two leaders. But few details have been released about the discussions or the issues preventing a deal.
Canada is the only G7 country yet to reach a trade deal with Trump this year - though unlike other allies, Ottawa is not in a rush given carve-outs under the US-Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement.
But Tuesday's tête-à-tête comes as Trump has renewed talk of making Canada a US state, while Carney's main opposition figure has said anything short of reaching a trade deal on this trip would be considered a failure.
Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said last week that "progress" is being made toward an agreement, and media reports suggest there may be some relief from the punishing US steel tariffs to come.
Insiders, however, have hinted at frustration over a lack of clarity from the White House on what a trade and security deal with Canada could look like.
"If you look at all the different things that Trump is engaged in, is this right near the top? Probably not," said Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat and a member of Carleton University's Expert Group on Canada-US Relations.
"That's part of the reason why, I think, the prime minister is going down [to Washington], to say 'give us your attention'," Mr Robertson told the BBC.
Carney's office has billed Tuesday's meeting as a "working visit" focused on finding common ground on the economy and security, though no major breakthroughs are expected, White House officials told the BBC.
Face-to-face time with the president, who finds personal relationships important, could also help ease the trade stalemate, noted Jamie Tronnes, the executive director of the Washington-based Center for North American Prosperity and Security.
"Trump has been very clear that he wants people to come to him," she said.
At the White House on Monday, Trump said only that "I guess he's going to ask about tariffs".
A lot of companies from Canada are moving into the United States," the president said in the Oval Office. "Everybody is moving back to the US.
When asked whether he would change his position on any tariffs, Trump replied quickly: "I'm right."
Carney has faced domestic pressure to secure a deal with the US that would lower tariffs, especially for hard-hit sectors like steel and lumber.
In an open letter to the prime minister on Monday ahead of his Washington visit, Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre urged Carney to "negotiate a win".
"If you only return with excuses, broken promises and photo ops, you will have failed our workers, our businesses and our country," Poilievre wrote.
Trump has imposed a 35% levy on Canadian imports, but has allowed a carve-out for goods that fall under the USMCA trade pact. He has also imposed separate sector-specific levies, including 50% on metals and 25% on vehicles.
Carney has sought to reassure Canadians that a vast majority of trade with the US - 85% of it - remains duty-free thanks to the USMCA exemption.
The prime minister has also been criticised for softening his "Elbows Up" election pitch for dealing with the Trump administration, referencing an ice hockey metaphor for playing aggressively.
Instead, Carney has made what some describe as concessions since taking office: ending a Digital Services Tax that Trump openly disliked, dropping most of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the US, and withdrawing two decades-old legal disputes over American duties on Canadian softwood lumber.
Mr Robertson called it "the price of admission" to keep trade talks going.
Still, Carney has described the relationship with Trump as "good" and said the two routinely text.
Tuesday's White House visit also comes as consultations begin ahead of an upcoming review of the long-standing USMCA free trade agreement.
US Trade Representative Jameison Greer has signalled that this review may be conducted separately with Canada and Mexico, as the US relationship with either countries "is different in so many ways," he said in late September.
Pete Hoekstra, US ambassador to Canada, told an Ottawa audience in September that Washington had hoped to negotiate a "bigger" deal with Canada, one that covers both trade and defence.
He also voiced frustration with Canadians' discontent with the US, saying "it is very, very difficult to find Canadians who are passionate about the American-Canadian relationship".
The Carney government has had to walk a tightrope in dealing with public dismay over US relations.
Tourism data show the number of Canadians visiting the US has fallen for seven consecutive months, and an Ipsos poll found six in 10 Canadians believe their country can never trust the US the same way again.
That sentiment is partly fuelled by Trump's repeated claim that Canada should become "the 51st state" - most recently last week before senior military generals in Virginia while discussing plans for a Golden Dome missile defence system.
Determining what the US wants out of the talks has been difficult to decipher.
It is likely that Washington wants to pressure Ottawa for firm commitments on issues beyond trade, like defence and its shared border, said Avidan Cover, the Director of the Institute for Global Security Law at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.
Trump's demands that Canada become America's 51st state, Mr Cover added, were "posturing" and "not a serious proposal" - but he said that he believes they were "revealing" about where Trump stands with regards to Canada.
"It reflects an enormous amount of leverage," he said.
Experts have also noted that Trump's ambitious Golden Dome missile shield would require some level of Canadian participation given its geographical proximity, with the Trump administration likely looking for an agreement on that from Canada.
As Carney works to maintain dialogue with Trump, he has spent the summer visiting allies like the UK and Mexico to shore up support and find new markets for Canada.
At home, he has focused on ramping up "nation-building" projects that can improve Canada's economic output in the long term.
But there is still widespread recognition across political aisles that Canada needs to achieve some sort of deal with Trump to shield its economy, as 75% of its goods are sold to the US and thousands of jobs have already been lost in vulnerable sectors.
The Carney government is acutely aware of this pressure heading into Tuesday's meeting, Mr Robertson noted. If implemented at full-force, the US tariffs have the power to "rupture" Canada's economy.
"In the meantime, while we scramble to find new opportunities, you want to keep as much of the current agreement in place," he said.
Source: BBC
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