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ET@Davos: BCG’s Rich Lesser on how India Inc can navigate tariffs, sanctions and a fragmented global economy
Global trade is reorganizing into regional blocs, not collapsing. Companies must build capacity to navigate multiple futures as geopolitics increasingly shapes markets. India Inc. shows resilience due to strong domestic demand. Leaders need to embed geopolitical insight into strategy for growth and risk management in this complex new baseline.
Companies often focus on current tariffs or sanctions but underestimate their indirect exposure, including impact on suppliers, talent, technology access, and long-term competitiveness, warned Rich Lesser, global chairman, BCG.
The consultant said for business leaders, the task is how to build the capacity to navigate multiple futures. In an interview with Vinod Mahanta, Lesser and BCG India head Rahul Jain talk about reorganisation of global trade and geo-political blindspots of leaders. Edited excerpts.
With tariffs and economic nationalism back in focus, are we heading toward a more fragmented global economy, or is this just another phase that globalisation will adapt to?
Rich Lesser: The answer our latest research provides is more nuanced — and more useful for decision makers. Global trade isn't collapsing; it's reorganising. A BCG report explored four plausible scenarios for how trade could evolve over the next decade, with momentum building behind a multi-nodal trade patchwork. Trade and investment will increasingly flow within regional and aligned blocs.
In this scenario, global trade in goods continues to grow — at about 2.5% annually through 2034. That projection is slower than the 2.9% we projected last year, but it is far from the breakdown many feared.
What are you telling CEOs today when geopolitics decides access to trade, technology and capital?
Lesser: For business leaders, the task is how to build capacity to navigate multiple futures. In a patchwork trade world, geopolitical muscle becomes table stakes. Companies that embed geopolitical insight into strategy, capital allocation, and supply chain design are not just better at managing risk, they are better at spotting where growth will emerge as trade lanes adjust.
That capability enables three things. First, smarter scenario planning, so leaders can act early rather than react late. Second, more resilient and differentiated supply chains, tailored to different rulebooks across countries. And third, sharper cost productivity, as higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers put pressure on margins and pricing choices.
The best path forward is to understand and accept complexity as the new baseline — and to build the skills, systems, and judgment needed to turn that complexity into advantage.
Has balance of power quietly shifted from markets to governments and are corporate leaders prepared for that reality?
Lesser: Governments are now more actively shaping markets, particularly in areas tied to national security, technology, and resilience. Some leaders are adjusting their strategies accordingly, but many still assume that market logic will ultimately prevail. In today's environment, successful leaders recognise that political context is now inseparable from economic decision-making.
How exposed is India Inc to new tariff wars and geopolitical shocks?
Rahul Jain: At a macro level, India Inc's exposure to new tariffs and geopolitical shocks remains relatively contained. This resilience is driven by strong domestic demand, which is the mainstay of the Indian economy and continues to grow at a rapid pace, supported by a favourable demographic profile and rising income levels.
Exports account for roughly 20–21% of GDP — significantly lower than in highly export-dependent economies. Even within this, concentration risk is limited: exports to the US represent only around 20% of merchandise exports.
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