A young party led by a rapper wins a huge mandate - and Nepal steps into the unknown

Nepal's historic election has delivered a seismic result.

The four-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah, has achieved a feat many thought impossible under Nepal's dual-election system: a sweeping majority.

The country's political elite have been cast aside, and entrenched power structures shattered. Perhaps the biggest symbol of this was when Shah, or Balen as he is commonly known in Nepal, defeated former prime minister KP Sharma Oli in Jhapa 5, a seat long considered a stronghold for him.

As we've travelled the country, jubilant RSP voters have told us they are tired of decades of what they perceive to be corruption and political paralysis.

"Balen represents hope for a new political culture," Jhapa-5 voter Ispa Sapkota told the BBC.

But the reality is that Nepal is stepping into the political unknown.

A young party with no history of running a government will now lead the country, shouldered with the high expectations of a population eager to see quick results.

Balen, 35, has only three years of political experience as mayor of the capital, Kathmandu.

Yet, the fact that he is a relative newcomer to politics is seen as a strength by many voters.

They feel this signals a break from the failings of Nepal's old guard who have dominated the political scene for decades. A graphic cartoon of Balen and the RSP President Rabi Lamichhane destroying a concrete wall illustrates their manifesto, with the words "We have arrived".

It's not altogether a clean sheet for Balen though.

As mayor he was criticised by rights groups for using the police against street vendors in a heavy-handed manner, as he worked to keep roads clear in the capital and crack down on unlicensed businesses. Shah's campaign did not respond to a BBC request for comment.

Human Rights Watch is one of the groups that raised those concerns and told the BBC it's the type of behaviour they've often observed of new leaders who want to show results quickly.

"We hope as prime minister, there would be a focus on a more rules-based order," says Meenakshi Ganguly of Human Rights Watch's Asia Division.

As for the party, one of its chief promises is to tackle corruption. The RSP has promised to investigate assets of those who've been in power since the 1990s and to nationalise any properties that were acquired illegally.

They've also pledged to reform Nepal's judiciary, end the political appointments of judges, and consider live-streaming trials for better transparency.

Constitutional expert Bipin Adhikari is hopeful that Nepal's institutions will help the RSP with its reforms.

"The civil service has been politicised by successive governments, there's been pressure. They'll now have independence, and there's been frustration amongst the civil service for years, they're ready for this change," he says.

One of the RSP's senior leaders and a newly elected MP, Shishir Khanal, says the party already has plans to incentivise "the bureaucracy" to get on side.

"We'll immediately put forward a bill. You'll see soon that it will reorganise how civil servants are paid and promoted, and create positive incentive structures," he says.

The economy is another area the RSP have promised to deliver on.

Younger Nepalis have been frustrated by the lack of opportunities and are trusting the RSP to grow the economy. Youth unemployment stands at about 20% and three million Nepalis work overseas.

"When we search for jobs, we're not able to get any here. Brain drain is becoming the most important problem in our country," Sapkota warns.

But some argue the targets set by the party are unrealistic.

The manifesto promises to grow the economy by 7% every year so that the country becomes a $100 billion economy within the next five to seven years.

Yet, the World Bank's latest data has the economy growing by 4.6% in 2025 and it's projected to slow down. Its latest country report says that longstanding political instability, a continued decline in tourism and frequent natural disasters are all issues Nepal has struggled to overcome.

Another more immediate challenge to the economy is the war in the Middle East, according to Nishchal N Pandey, director of the Centre for South Asian Studies in Nepal.

Many Nepalis work there, and more than a quarter of Nepal's GDP is made up of remittances, money sent home by workers. "Any impact on this and we'll have a deep problem," Pandey says.

The RSP's Khanal believes the party's goals are achievable once their government cuts all the red tape.

Two dozen laws can be scrapped or changed - we'll move on that immediately. Right now you need to go around multiple departments just to register a company.

Overall, the road to reform is paved with many challenges for the new government.

Despite its landslide win, Balen and other RSP leaders will have to confront the realities of keeping their own MPs focused on the same goals in parliament. While the RSP has been in government before for months-long spells as a junior coalition partner with limited influence, the party has mainly operated as a campaigning force rather than a governing one.

Adhikari believes these internal challenges will in fact be the biggest obstacles. He argues RSP politicians "are very new and don't have a background in statecraft".

"They all come from different walks of life, and might develop their own ambitions very quickly, and the high command might have difficulty whipping them," he says.

There's also the threat of how the party could change, should their power go unchecked. The results could lead to a weak opposition in the lower house of parliament.

"If the opposition works alongside an independent media and other institutions, it can still be effective. But there's a high possibility it won't be organised, in which case there's a risk the party tarnishes its mandate, and doesn't carry through on its promises," Adhikari says.

Nepal has also operated under a system of "political patronage that has advantaged the powerful and rewarded the rich," says Ganguly. While there is a big opportunity, "it will mean very tough choices and could be destabilising at first," she warns.

And finally, there is the question of how Balen and the RSP will balance the competing influences of regional neighbours.

Nepal is a Hindu-majority country wedged between India and China. Thousands of Hindu pilgrims visit every year from India, through an open border and Delhi has had an outsized influence on Nepal's political landscape for decades.

On Monday, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he'd had "warm telephone conversations" with Balen and Lamichhane, congratulating them on the party's "resounding success".

Bhattarai told us he witnessed pressures from Nepal's neighbours first-hand when he was ambassador to the UN.

We have two huge neighbours, rivals with each other, and the biggest challenge is maintaining a balanced relationship," he says. "We have to assure them we won't allow Nepali territory to be used against them.

The former Prime Minister Oli was viewed as someone who pursued closer ties with China. But Bhattarai believes this is mostly a matter of perception and that Oli kept to Nepal's long-standing policy of "non-alliance".

"Oli had the communist party tag, it's no secret China would want communist parties to be stronger in Nepal," he says.

He points out that while Nepal signed up to China's landmark infrastructure agreement, the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017, not a single project moved forward because Oli refused loan terms proposed by Beijing.

The RSP's Khanal, who is also the party spokesperson for international relations, told us the party sees no major changes in Nepal's diplomatic future, and rules out any security pacts, which is in line with the country's constitution.

Looming above is the watchful eye of the United States, ever mindful of China's influence.

Khanal acknowledged "a historic relationship with the US," but said "neighbours are our first priority."

A young party, made up of fresh faces, has a lot of urgent issues to contend with.

Nepalis we've met are hungry for change and have high expectations. Younger ones in particular are now keenly aware of their power and ability to hold those in power to account.

Balen and the RSP will be conscious of that too, as they usher in a new era, and forge an unchartered path for Nepal.

Source: BBC
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