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'A million things could go wrong' - why seizing Iran's uranium would be so risky for the US
US troops storming a secretive, underground nuclear facility to seize Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium may sound far-fetched, but it is an option President Donald Trump is reportedly considering to achieve his main objective in the war: preventing the regime from developing nuclear weapons.
Such an operation would be extremely challenging and fraught with danger, according to military experts and former US defence officials who spoke to the BBC. They said it would require the deployment of ground troops and could take several days or even weeks to complete.
Removing the uranium stockpile would be one of the "most complicated special operations in history," said Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East.
The scenario is just one of several military actions that Trump could take in Iran.
Others include the US taking control of Kharg Island in an effort to pressure Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The administration may also be using the threat of new military operations to pressure Iran to the negotiating table.
In a telephone interview with the BBC's US partner CBS News on Tuesday, President Trump declined to say whether it would be possible to declare victory in the war without removing or destroying Iran's enriched uranium.
But he appeared to play down the significance of the stockpile, pointing to the damage caused in US-Israeli strikes last June. "That's so deeply buried it's gonna be very hard for anybody," Trump said. "It's down there deep. So… it's pretty safe. But, you know, we'll make a determination."
His remarks came after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was considering an operation to extract the material. The White House said Trump was yet to make a final decision.
An operation targeting Iran's stockpile would face several major logistical challenges, experts said.
At the start of the war, Iran possessed approximately 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%, according to senior US officials. The material can be fairly quickly enriched to the 90% threshold needed for weapons-grade uranium.
Iran also has roughly 1,000kg of uranium enriched to 20%, and 8,500kg that are enriched to the 3.6% threshold accepted for medical research.
Most of the highly enriched uranium that can be easily turned into material for bombs or missiles is believed to be stored at Isfahan. The facility is one of three underground nuclear sites in Iran that were targeted in US-Israeli airstrikes last year.
But it is unclear how much of the highly enriched uranium is stored at other locations.
A military operation to retrieve the material would be easier if the US knew exactly where the stockpile was, said Jason Campbell, a former senior US defence official in the Obama and Trump administrations.
"The ideal scenario is that you know exactly where it is," Campbell said. "If it's been dispersed to four different sites, then you're talking about a whole different" level of complexity.
In addition to Isfahan, some highly enriched uranium could also be stored at Fordo and Natanz, the other two enrichment facilities that were targeted in Operation Midnight Hammer last year.
Rafael Grossi, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said last month that the majority of Iran's highly enriched uranium is stored at Isfahan, with some additional material at Natanz. But Grossi said more detailed information wasn't available because inspectors haven't visited the sites since being evacuated from Iran after the US-Israeli air campaign in 2025.
"There are many questions that we will only elucidate when we are able to go back," Grossi told reporters.
Gaining access to the highly enriched uranium presents another set of challenges, assuming the US knows where it is.
There are signs that Iran fortified an underground complex near one of its nuclear facilities before this year's US-Israeli strikes. At Isfahan, for example, satellite imagery from February indicated all entrances to its tunnel complex appeared to be sealed off with earth, which would make any operation more difficult.
Since the start of the war, the US and Israel have been able to use air strikes alone to decimate Iran's navy, degrade its ballistic missiles and damage its industrial base. But unlike those other military objectives, experts said that securing Iran's enriched uranium could not be done without using ground forces.
The US could use elements of the 82nd Airborne Division - which were deployed to the Middle East - to secure the areas surrounding Isfahan and Natanz. Special operations forces that are trained to handle nuclear material would then be sent in to retrieve the enriched uranium. The uranium itself is in gaseous form and is believed to be stored in large metal containers.
Satellite imagery shows that the entrances to Isfahan and Natanz were badly damaged by US airstrikes. US forces would likely need heavy machinery to dig through rubble in order to locate the enriched uranium, which is believed to be stored in tunnels buried deep underground - all while facing potential counterattacks from Iran.
"You've first got to excavate the site and detect [the enriched uranium] while likely being under near constant threat," Campbell said.
It is an open question how Iran might respond, or how much of a threat it might pose to US ground troops targeting the country's main nuclear facilities.
The US and Israel have been degrading "Iranian defence capabilities to enable this type of operation if it was necessary," said Alex Plitsas, a former US defence official and nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Nevertheless, he said it would still be a "high risk" operation.
US ground troops would be isolated at Isfahan, which is located approximately 300 miles (482km) inland from Iran's third largest city. "It makes [medical evacuations] difficult given the distances. It makes [US troops] vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire coming in and out, as well as attacks while they're" at the nuclear facility," Plitsas said.
While the operation could take multiple forms, experts said it would likely involve the seizure of an airfield or landing zone from which US forces could operate - and then remove the enriched uranium from Iran once they have retrieved it.
The 82nd Airborne Division, which is trained to secure airfields and other infrastructure, could be used along with other US forces to stage an operating base for the mission, military experts said. Once the uranium is secured, the US would then face the question of removing it from the country or diluting it on site.
Senior administration officials said at the start of the war that the US might consider diluting Iran's highly enriched uranium on site, rather than removing it from the country. But that would be a large, complex and time-consuming operation, said Jonathan Ruhe, an expert on Iran's nuclear programme at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a conservative think tank in Washington DC.
Seizing and taking the uranium out of Iran is faster and would allow the US to dilute the material in the United States, Ruhe said. The operation would be deeply risky no matter how it is done, he added.
"You've got basically a half ton of what's effectively weapons grade uranium that you've got to extricate," Ruhe said.
And there are a million things that could go wrong.
Source: BBC
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